{"id":50052193,"date":"2022-03-24T13:41:24","date_gmt":"2022-03-24T13:41:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=52193"},"modified":"2023-05-08T20:07:38","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T19:07:38","slug":"52162-latin-america-new-pink-tide-green","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/52162-latin-america-new-pink-tide-green\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Latin America\u2019s new \u2018pink tide\u2019 turn green?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Much like the early 2000s, Latin America could be on the brink of a new \u201cpink tide\u201d \u2013 but one that is awash with another colour. Gabriel Boric won Chile\u2019s presidential elections last December promising<\/a> \u201cdevelopment compatible with the environment\u201d. Former Brazilian president Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva of the Workers\u2019 Party is leading polls<\/a> for elections in October 2022, pledging to combat Amazon deforestation and prioritise climate<\/a>. And in Colombia, veteran leftist Gustavo Petro, favourite for the elections on 29 May, claims that he will halt oil exploration<\/a> and invest in the country\u2019s energy transition, if elected.<\/p>\n

For Latin America, one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change<\/a>, according to the latest report by the UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), revitalising a green, environmental agenda seems to be a top priority for newly elected and aspiring leaders alike.<\/p>\n

Yet, while there is hope and expectation, there is some scepticism about the more developmentalist-minded leaders\u2019 potential embrace of strong climate and environmental policies. Above all, there is a huge opportunity to prove progressive credentials in the climate arena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Can the new pink tide unite environment and development?<\/h2>\n

A glance at the history of the Latin American left shows that political progressivism has not guaranteed advances on climate.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe first question we should ask is: can we make a correlation between progressive governments and the fight against climate change in the region?\u201d asks Mat\u00edas Franchini, a climate and international relations researcher at Colombia\u2019s Rosario University. This relationship is clearer in the US and Europe than in Latin America, he says.<\/p>\n

Indeed, recent and current conservative governments in Chile and Colombia, respectively, scored notable gains on climate, rolling out renewable energy projects and launching more ambitious emissions reductions targets. However, former Chilean president Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era\u2019s government was criticised<\/a> for showing weak leadership as co-host of the relocated COP25 climate talks in Madrid, in 2019. Furthermore, both he and Colombian counterpart Iv\u00e1n Duque have failed to ensure that their proposed transitions to greener economies were as participatory as possible by failing to ratify the Escaz\u00fa Agreement<\/a>. The regional treaty is widely regarded as the starter pistol for a race to the top in environmental standards, transparency and civic participation regionally. Less than a week into his presidency, Boric has since ratified<\/a> the agreement.<\/p>\n

Franchini also cites Mexico, where former conservative president Felipe Calder\u00f3n (2006\u20132012) made more advances on climate and environmental protection than the current president, leftist Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador (known as AMLO), looks set to achieve.<\/p>\n

With this new generation, we have a chance to finally leave behind this dichotomy between environment and development<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Calder\u00f3n later became director of the Global Commission on Economy and Climate, which advises countries on economic development and climate risk. AMLO, meanwhile, notoriously failed to even attend last November\u2019s climate summit in Glasgow<\/a>. \u201cEnough hypocrisy and fads, what we need to do is fight the monstrous inequality that exists in the world,\u201d he said<\/a> at the time, pitting the struggle for socioeconomic equality against global warming.<\/p>\n

AMLO has also attracted criticism<\/a> for investing billions of dollars in the construction of the Dos Bocas refinery<\/a>, boosting Mexico\u2019s oil sector in search of what he calls \u2018energy sovereignty\u2019. He has also clashed<\/a> with the renewable energy sector in promoting a constitutional reform<\/a> that prioritises thermoelectric plants.<\/p>\n

Tatiana Roque, a professor of philosophy and mathematics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, is cautious. In her 2021 book, O dia em que voltamos de marte<\/em> (The Day We Returned from Mars), Roque criticises the developmentalism that the Latin American left has espoused. Such mindsets as AMLO\u2019s, she says, belong to a bygone era.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to be careful not to reproduce the same vision of the past, especially this very marked developmentalist vision in Latin America that incorporates a vision of the future that does not [engage in] dialogue with the urgency of climate change,\u201d says Roque.<\/p>\n

The Latin American left has yet to adopt this perspective partly because of its deep economic dependence on the production of environmentally damaging commodities, such as soy, livestock, oil and metals, Roque adds. \u201cWe have become too vulnerable to make this [green] transition because of commodities.\u201d<\/p>\n

The pink tide of the 2000s<\/h2>\n

Latin America\u2019s last progressive wave that began in the 2000s swept leaders such as Hugo Ch\u00e1vez (Venezuela), Evo Morales (Bolivia), Rafael Correa (Ecuador) and N\u00e9stor and Cristina Kirchner (Argentina) to power, as well as Lula himself, and his successor Dilma Rousseff. These governments generally benefited from high global commodity prices, driven largely by Chinese demand, to invest heavily in public policies that reduced inequality and poverty.<\/p>\n

\n

The role of commodities<\/p>\n

\n <\/strong>
\nThe global rise in raw material prices in the 2000s, plus growing Chinese demand, created a positive economic cycle in Latin America, but one that favoured a development model that marginalised environmental agendas. Now, a possible new green wave could be the chance to bring sustainable development to the forefront.
\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div><\/p>\n

\u201cThis first wave, which ran from 2003 to 2014, coincided with a major commodity cycle that totally defined these governments\u2019 successes and failures,\u201d says Mathias Alencastro, a researcher at the Brazilian Centre for Analysis and Planning.<\/p>\n

Yet, Alencastro is optimistic. He argues that Latin America\u2019s previous progressive turn was retrospective, fighting the remnants of military dictatorships and the influence of the US in the region. Today, the Latin American left will be pushed to prioritise sustainable development, he says: \u201cClimate policy is precisely what differentiates the first and second wave. Without a positive commodities cycle, the left will be forced to be more daring. The green economy fills that void.\u201d<\/p>\n

Without commodities-driven growth, there is an opportunity to seek new forms of development and move Latin American countries away from raw material dependence. In Brazil, for example, progressive sectors have called for zero deforestation in the Amazon and for the development of a bio-economy that generates income and keeps the forest standing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chile and Colombia in the spotlight<\/h2>\n

Much current attention focuses on Boric and Petro. The Chilean\u2019s early moves are promising. He chose renowned climate scientist Maisa Rojas<\/a> as environment minister. She has directed the Center for Climate and Resilience Research, linked to the University of Chile, co-authored IPCC reports and worked with the former government on Chile\u2019s presidency of COP25 \u2013 which ultimately moved to Madrid because of massive protests<\/a> over rampant inequality and alienation from political decision-making, no less.

<\/p>\n
\"People
A wave of protests in Chile during the presidency of Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era led to the hosting of the COP25 climate conference being transferred to Madrid (Image: Carlos Figueroa \/ CC BY-SA 4.0<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

<\/div>Boric, only 36 years old, belongs to a new cohort of progressive politicians. He wants to create a state company to regulate the extraction and use of lithium, in partnership with local communities, and backs Rojas to implement a new law on climate change, among other policy proposals.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith this new generation, we have a chance to finally leave behind this dichotomy between environment and development,\u201d says Natalie Unterstell, president of the Talanoa Institute, a Brazilian climate think-tank. \u201cBut we still have the reluctant ones, like the Mexican leadership, who will do as little as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mat\u00edas Franchini says that during the past 20 years of alternating between the centre-left governments of Michelle Bachelet (2006\u20132010 and 2014\u20132018) and centre-right Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era (2010\u20132014 and 2018\u20132022), Chile has successfully built a state policy of decarbonisation. The goal was to achieve emissions neutrality by 2050, and the country has already invested in reforestation projects and clean energy. By 2025, 20% of energy production will come from non-conventional renewable sources, such as wind or solar, according to national climate plans<\/a>. \u201cBoric does not represent a break, but rather the continuation of a trend,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Although Colombia\u2019s Petro belongs to a previous generation of progressives, he represents the country\u2019s main chance of a first ever left-wing government. He has lamented Colombia\u2019s shift from coffee-growing to oil and coal: today, about a third of Colombia\u2019s exports<\/a> depend on the oil industry. China and the US are the main buyers.

<\/span><\/p>\n
\"Gustavo
Veteran leftist Gustavo Petro is currently the frontrunner for Colombia's presidential elections this May. He has stated an aim to move the nation's economy away from extractive industries such as oil, though this has been described as \"unrealistic\" by some commentators. (Image: The Left<\/a> \/ CC BY-NC-ND 2.0<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

<\/div>\u201cWe have to move from an extractive economy to a productive one. The energy transition is a decision that can be made on day one,\u201d Petro said. \u201cForeign exchange [from oil] can be replaced with tourism, and that means jumping from five million to 15 million tourists [annually],\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

The environment rose up the agenda in Colombia under the Juan Manuel Santos government (2010\u20132017), which incorporated green issues into the historic peace agreement with the FARC<\/a>. Signed in 2016, the document committed to the resettlement of vulnerable communities, reforestation in areas affected by the conflict, and combating illegal mining, among other provisions.<\/p>\n

Climate action then gained new momentum under Duque. The current president said<\/a> during COP26 that the country will slash emissions by 51% by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050. Reaching these goals, however, relies on curbing deforestation in the Colombian Amazon, which has spiked since the FARC vacated densely forested areas. Little attention has been paid to overhauling the fossil fuel-dependent energy sector.<\/p>\n

Plans to transition to renewables involve greatly increasing the use of natural gas in energy supply<\/a> \u2013 and Colombia has scant resources without fracking new reserves. Support for the oil industry also remains. \u201cIn this sense, Petro\u2019s discourse is more interesting, but unrealistic in political terms,\u201d argues Franchini, who is sceptical of the proposal to block new oil industry projects. \u201cThe space for Petro to make a quick transition is difficult in political and economic terms.\u201d<\/p>\n

The road ahead may be challenging, but environmentalists in Colombia have been buoyed by the recent selection of Francia M\u00e1rquez as Petro\u2019s running mate<\/a>. A tireless environmental campaigner whose activism has earned her a Goldman prize \u2013 often dubbed the \u201cGreen Nobel\u201d \u2013 M\u00e1rquez is now in line to become the country\u2019s first black female vice-president, and could lead powerful defence of environmental and social causes at the highest level.<\/span><\/p>\n

Can Brazil\u2019s leader change the game?<\/h2>\n

If elected, Lula, who governed Brazil between 2003 and 2011, will become the only leader to ride both of Latin America\u2019s pink waves. His government was ambiguous in the environmental area. Alongside Marina Silva, his then Minister of the Environment, Lula devised a sustainable development plan that led to reduced Amazon deforestation rates of more than 80%<\/a>. At the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit, he demanded<\/a> other countries commit to a global agreement.

<\/p>\n
\"Lula
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, pictured here in 2009, had a mixed record on the environment during his previous stint as Brazil's president. His government led a plan that reduced deforestation in the Amazon by more than 80%, but also the construction of controversial, environmentally damaging infrastructure in the biome. (Image: Roberto Jayme \/ Alamy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

<\/div>Yet, the Lula and Rousseff administrations were also responsible for the construction of the Belo Monte hydroelectric plant, which brought inestimable socio-environmental damage to the Xingu region<\/a>, in the Amazonian state of Par\u00e1. It was also during the Workers\u2019 Party government that national energy company Petrobras discovered and began to explore<\/a> more pre-salt oil, which it deemed a fastrack to the country\u2019s economic development. Their governments\u2019 tax breaks<\/a> for the purchase of cars also encouraged the growth<\/a> of the polluting automobile industry.<\/p>\n

Agribusiness development also became state policy. The sector expanded rapidly during the commodities supercycle in the first decade of the 2000s. At that time, China became the main buyer of Brazilian soybeans and minerals and, subsequently, the country\u2019s main trading partner<\/a>. In 2021, China imported about US$87.3 billion<\/a> worth of goods and services from Brazil.<\/p>\n

Amazon deforestation increased again in 2012 under Rousseff and has broken records since 2019 under Jair Bolsonaro, who has dismantled Brazil’s environmental and climate policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

So what can be expected from Lula\u2019s potential return?<\/h2>\n

Opinions are divided. Alencastro is sure that Lula, a veteran and internationally respected statesman, knows how to up the rhetoric on environment: \u201cHe is a leader that follows global trends and knows how to feel the world’s transformations. He has already understood very well that the climate issue is something that needs to be incorporated from a programmatic point of view.\u201d<\/p>\n

The former leader has also suggested<\/a> that a possible third term will focus on making the transition to a green economy. \u201cWe need to think about the environment, the Amazon, but also the sewage in the favela. We will take the environmental issue very seriously. Today, development, economic growth and investment have to be linked to the environmental issue,\u201d he tweeted<\/a> in February.<\/p>\n

It is essential to promote a new green pact that promotes the ecological transition to a low-carbon economy<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A prospective plan<\/a> for a potential Lula government, drawn up by the Perseu Abramo Foundation, a body linked to the Workers\u2019 Party, says it is \u201cessential, in addition to combating the environmental devastation caused by the current government, to promote a Green New Deal, a new \u2018green pact\u2019, which promotes the ecological transition to a low-carbon economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThis green pact is going to happen by will or by force. Either this transition will be agreed upon and planned, or it will happen with losses and damages, because it will be imposed,\u201d says Unterstell, for whom there are still no clearer signs of the direction Lula intends to adopt, nor who will form his team. \u201cWe are in a decade where it is not a question of good manners, of putting a green stamp on things. We are dealing with a different crisis. The markets are already redirecting themselves in a way that appears overwhelming,\u201d she adds.<\/p>\n

Roque believes that the main job for the charismatic Lula is to return Brazil to relative democratic normality and develop policies to lay the foundation for a more ambitious environmental project: \u201cI don’t think that Lula will prioritise a new development model based on the urgency of fighting climate change. But he could be the way out of this completely exceptional moment we are living in and essential for developing policies that go beyond Lula himself.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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