{"id":50053526,"date":"2022-05-04T17:28:58","date_gmt":"2022-05-04T14:28:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=53526"},"modified":"2023-06-16T23:14:51","modified_gmt":"2023-06-16T20:14:51","slug":"53526-lull-in-chinas-lending-to-latin-america-reflects-a-rethink-in-beijing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/53526-lull-in-chinas-lending-to-latin-america-reflects-a-rethink-in-beijing\/","title":{"rendered":"Lull in China\u2019s lending to Latin America reflects a rethink in Beijing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Gone are the days of China\u2019s lavish sovereign lending to Latin America \u2013 at least for now. For the second year in a row, in 2021 China\u2019s policy banks \u2013 the China Development Bank (CDB) and China Exim Bank (Exim) \u2013 issued no new loans to the region, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thedialogue.org\/content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Chinas-policy-banks-final-mar22.pdf\">latest update<\/a> of The Dialogue and Boston University\u2019s China-Latin America Finance Database has found.<\/p>\n<p>Although the absence of new loans coincides with the economic downturn of the Covid-19 pandemic, which prompted CDB and Exim to focus on existing overseas projects and supporting China\u2019s own development, the figures have declined year-on-year since US$21.3 billion was issued in 2015. There is a new emphasis on risk-aversion and profitability, according to Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America Initiative at The Dialogue.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina\u2019s continued efforts to align outward engagement with domestic growth objectives has led to a focus on specific, often high-tech, sectors that promote its own industrial upgrading,\u201d Myers says. \u201cIts financial institutions are increasingly trying to identify bankable, \u2018high-quality\u2019 projects.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_47769\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-47769\" style=\"width: 400px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/en\/trade-investment\/china-development-bank-latin-america\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-47769\" src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/RCMYEW-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Three machines clearing a road\" width=\"400\" height=\"225\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-47769\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><strong>Read more: <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/en\/trade-investment\/china-development-bank-latin-america\/\">Understanding the China Development Bank in Latin America<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The decline in state-to-state deals that characterised the early stage of the China\u2013Latin America partnership \u2013 and delivered mixed results \u2013 corresponds with an increasing diversity in terms of the financial actors involved. Commercial banks, including the commercial arm of CDB, commonly issue corporate loans directly to Chinese and Latin American companies, while private equity funds and co-financing initiatives are all actively seeking and financing opportunities in the region.<\/p>\n<p>The earlier model of commodity-backed loans is typified by Venezuela, which has borrowed US$62.5 billion from China\u2019s policy banks since 2005, some 45% of the total issued to the region. Yet, the petrostate\u2019s economy slumped amid low commodity prices and US sanctions, prompting political and security challenges, and a strategic rethink for its Chinese creditors.<\/p>\n<p>Despite this, future policy bank lending to Latin America cannot be ruled out, and the policy bank lending freeze should not be mistaken for a lack of interest, the report says.<\/p>\n<h2>Chinese finance in Latin America: No debt-traps<\/h2>\n<p>As Venezuela racked-up billions in Chinese debt, accusations proliferated that China was laying a \u201cdebt-trap\u201d\u2013 a means of ensuring economic dependency and oil supplies by linking loan repayments to future sales. However, the past two years have shown such allegations to be misplaced, according to Boston University\u2019s Rebecca Ray, a co-author of the research.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have already seen the \u2018debt trap\u2019 hypothesis thoroughly disproven over the last two years, as China has suspended debt payments rather than foreclose on assets underlying unsustainable debts,\u201d Ray told Di\u00e1logo Chino.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The \u2018debt trap\u2019 hypothesis has been thoroughly disproven in the last two years<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Ray points to the ongoing Chinese debt renegotiation processes with Ecuador, Suriname, and Argentina. These three countries have agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that mandate debt renegotiations with overseas creditors. Although Venezuela does not have a deal with the IMF, it will also likely renegotiate with China, which has shown leniency in offering grace periods for loan repayments on more than one occasion.<\/p>\n<p>These, however, are short-term measures and more comprehensive, long-term actions are needed, Ray says. But as well as debt sustainability, the cases of Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina \u2013 also major recipients of Chinese loans for fossil fuel and other energy projects \u2013 have also raised questions about the environmental sustainability of China\u2019s Latin America loan portfolio.<\/p>\n<h2>\u2018Greening\u2019 the Belt and Road Initiative<\/h2>\n<p>This year, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the catch-all moniker for China-backed overseas infrastructure development, returned to Latin America. <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/en\/trade-investment\/argentina-joins-china-belt-and-road-initiative\/\">Argentina<\/a> and Nicaragua joined the flagship connectivity strategy in February and January, respectively, bringing the total number of Latin American BRI members to 21.<\/p>\n<p>Member countries may, however, encounter a newfound cautiousness among the Chinese financial institutions supporting the initiative. \u201cPolicy banks have been asked by the government to deleverage their lending risks, and that\u2019s not exclusive to Latin America,\u201d Yingzhi Tang of the Beijing-based International Institute of Green Finance told Di\u00e1logo Chino.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39371\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39371\" style=\"width: 400px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/en\/climate-energy\/erik-solheim-china-should-apply-stricter-standards-along-the-belt-and-road\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-39371\" src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/china-laos-bri-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Construction of a section of the China-Laos Railway\" width=\"400\" height=\"267\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39371\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><strong>Recommended: <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/en\/climate-energy\/erik-solheim-china-should-apply-stricter-standards-along-the-belt-and-road\/\">\u2018China should apply stricter standards along the Belt and Road\u2019<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Sinosure, the state-owned company that provides non-payment and political risk insurance for China\u2019s foreign trade and investments, increasingly looks at macroeconomic stability in host countries and requires balanced risk profiles for projects, Tang says.<\/p>\n<p>These are not the only risks that should be considered. \u201cA deeper environmental risk management strategy is needed if the BRI is going to continue to grow,\u201d Ray says.<\/p>\n<p>Notably, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/xxgk2018\/xxgk\/xxgk05\/202201\/t20220110_966571.html\">guidelines<\/a> released in January this year by China\u2019s ministries of commerce and ecology and environment provide clearer direction for Chinese companies on how to manage risk along the BRI, and acknowledge that host country standards might be insufficient. <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/en\/trade-investment\/china-development-bank-latin-america\/\">CDB<\/a>, the main financial backer of the BRI, is also developing its own guidelines for environmental and social impact assessments, Tang says.<\/p>\n<p>Rather than a detailed plan, the BRI is better understood as a process of human and infrastructural integration. Its \u201cgreening\u201d is also a process, Tang says. This consists of three elements: strong, <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/en\/climate-energy\/46629-china-to-stop-building-new-coal-power-projects-overseas\/\">top-line commitments<\/a> on shifting finance from \u2018dirty\u2019 to \u2018clean\u2019 projects; the opening of China&#8217;s capital markets for the issuance of <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/green-panda-bond-could-spur-chinese-investment-towards-africas-energy-transition\/\">green panda bonds<\/a>, Chinese renminbi-denominated green bonds; and more stringent environmental impact assessments for the entire project cycle, going beyond compliance with local laws and considering international best practices.<\/p>\n<h2>Demanding sustainability<\/h2>\n<p>The BRI\u2019s alignment with climate and sustainability goals has so far been largely determined by member countries\u2019 demand, and this is sometimes overlooked when considering how \u201cgreen\u201d it is, Tang says. Recipient countries\u2019 finance ministries and the project pipelines of their infrastructure agencies often determine which BRI projects get the go-ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Christoph Nedopil, director of the Green Finance &amp; Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai, agrees that there has been insufficient attention on the demand-side. He says better guidelines exist, for example the <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/en\/uncategorised\/38787-advisors-propose-new-system-to-regulate-chinas-overseas-investments\/\">traffic light system<\/a> for BRI projects, and their implementation must be accelerated.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a double-edged sword because China doesn\u2019t want to tell others what types of energy to invest in. Host countries need to take responsibility for the type of projects they want and the projects they can afford,\u201d he says. \u201cIt does not help to blame others. Agency is extremely important.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No new policy bank loans to the region in 2021 a sign of domestic and commercial priorities, as policies for improving risk management along the BRI develop<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3882,"featured_media":50053546,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[758],"tags":[50040311,529,544,580],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020,20000110,50002598],"class_list":["post-50053526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-cdb","tag-debt","tag-finance","tag-policy","country-argentina","country-china","country-nicaragua"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Lull in China\u2019s lending to 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