{"id":50057535,"date":"2022-08-24T18:12:15","date_gmt":"2022-08-24T17:12:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=57535"},"modified":"2023-07-28T21:10:38","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T20:10:38","slug":"57418-what-brazils-elections-could-mean-for-relations-with-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/57418-what-brazils-elections-could-mean-for-relations-with-china\/","title":{"rendered":"What Brazil\u2019s elections could mean for relations with China"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since 2009, China has been Brazil\u2019s main trading partner, and year after year since, there have been record-breaking figures, especially in agribusiness \u2013 a strengthening relationship that analysts believe will continue in the coming years, whatever the outcome of the South American nation\u2019s October\u2019s presidential elections.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur export agenda [mainly commodities] is very focused on very basic products,\u201d says Larissa Wachholz<\/a>, a partner at political consultancy Vallya and a special advisor on China affairs to Brazil\u2019s Ministry of Agriculture from 2019 to 2021. \u201cThis ultimately means that the electoral scenario is less important for these sectors, which are quite resilient.\u201d<\/p>\n

This does not mean, however, that relations will remain unchanged. Experts consulted by Di\u00e1logo Chino see an eventual win for former president Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, who currently leads the polls<\/a>, as a route to strengthening ties between the two countries. If current incumbent and poll-trailer Jair Bolsonaro is re-elected, the signs are that the government will likely continue to distance itself from China \u2013 at least rhetorically.<\/p>\n

Business between Brazil and China has continued to boom in recent years, even during the pandemic. The total value of trade between the two countries reached US$135 billion in 2021, a record number, according to foreign trade data<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have huge potential, but to win the trust of the Chinese, this needs to be done on a government-to-government basis. As much as the private sector has a key role in communicating with the consumer, the government has a key role in negotiating,\u201d Wachholz adds.<\/p>\n

Lula closer to China<\/h2>\n

Based on his previous time in office, Lula has shown himself to be more inclined to dialogue with Beijing. It was during his government, in 2009, that China became Brazil\u2019s main trading partner, benefiting from the broader international context of the commodities boom.<\/p>\n

Years before, in 2004, Lula made his first visit<\/a> to the Asian country with an entourage of business figures, a gesture seen as a driver of trade. In the same year, during the visit of former Chinese president Hu Jintao<\/a> to Brasilia, Brazil recognised China as a market economy, a move seen as a vote of confidence in the nation.

<\/span><\/p>\n
\"President
From left to right, former presidents Dmitri Medvedev (Russia), Lula (Brazil), Hu Jintao (China) and former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the second BRIC Summit in 2010. The Lula government\u2019s foreign policy favoured South-South cooperation (Image: Jos\u00e9 Cruz\/ABr, CC BY 3.0 BR<\/a>, via Wikimedia Commons)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

<\/div>\u201cChina, in general, has better dialogue with governments of a similar political tendency to the one it has at home,\u201d says Marcos Caramuru, who was Brazil\u2019s ambassador in Beijing between 2016 and 2018 and its consul-general in Shanghai between 2008 and 2011.<\/p>\n

Di\u00e1logo Chino contacted the campaign teams of the two candidates for information on their plans for relations with China if elected. No response was received from President Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s team.<\/p>\n

We will pick relations up where we left them in the Lula and Dilma governments, with very good partnerships, with very good coordination<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As for Lula, Celso Amorim, former foreign minister during his government and today his main advisor on international affairs, told Di\u00e1logo Chino that if the former president is elected, China will have an important place in his international policy. \u201cWe will pick relations up where we left them in the Lula and Dilma governments, with very good partnerships, with very good coordination,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

However, Professor Kelly Ferreira, director of international relations at the Pontifical Catholic University of Campinas, S\u0101o Paulo, warns that Lula would have to rebuild the ties burnt due to the friction-laden relationship of the Bolsonaro administration. \u201cIf we look at Brazilian foreign policy, it has always had some pillars, even during the military regime [1964\u20131985]. Brazil has always sought to follow international norms, of juridicism, pacifism. We do not make threats, we try to mediate, but there was this rupture during the Bolsonaro government.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bolsonaro expected to stay away<\/h2>\n

Asked about the possibility of re-election for Bolsonaro, experts generally predict a continuity on the business side, but with a colder diplomatic relationship, or a complete institutional estrangement. Since the 2018 election campaign, the current president has adopted an aggressive discourse with regard to China, with statements, for example, that the Asian country and its businesses would be \u201cbuying Brazil<\/a>\u201d.

<\/p>\n
\"Jair
Diplomatic relations between Brazil and China during the Bolsonaro government have been marked by moments of friction and distance between the two nations (Image: Isac N\u00f3brega \/ Pal\u00e1cio do Planalto \/ CC BY 2.0<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

<\/div>This rhetoric has continued during his government. One of the tensest moments occurred when congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, the president\u2019s son, blamed China<\/a> for the Covid-19 pandemic in a March 2020 tweet, to which the Chinese Embassy in Brazil issued an official response<\/a>. Other conflicts were driven by former foreign minister Ernesto Ara\u00fajo<\/a> and former education minister Abraham Weintraub<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It is difficult to interpret the Bolsonaro government. Many have difficulty understanding this dichotomy<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

According to Caramuru, the Bolsonaro government\u2019s arrival caused surprise among Chinese figures, with its ambiguous messages. While, on the one hand, the rhetoric was aggressive, on the other there was progress, the diplomat says, pointing to the cooperative stance of vice-president Hamilton Mour\u00e3o at the helm of the Sino-Brazilian High-Level Commission for Coordination and Cooperation (COSBAN), and the continuous functioning of Brazilian diplomacy.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is difficult to interpret the Bolsonaro government. Many have difficulty understanding this dichotomy. It gets much easier if you have an administration [in Brazil] that is ideologically closer [to China]. Business people would be more encouraged,\u201d said Caramuru.<\/p>\n

Beyond agribusiness<\/h2>\n

In arguing for closer dialogue between Brazil and China with a view to expanding business, Wachholz said that the current global turbulence could present a good time for the countries to find new trade areas.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina is in need of more diverse partnerships,\u201d the former agriculture ministry advisor says. For her, chances for discussion and strengthening ties with the Chinese have been spurned in recent years: \u201cOpportunities have been missed in the area of health [and] vaccines.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

US$135 billion<\/p>\n

\n
\nThe total value of imports and exports between Brazil and China in 2021. The Asian country has been Brazil\u2019s largest trading partner since 2009.
\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

Amorim, the advisor to Lula, signalled that a new government under the former president would open new fronts for partnerships and investments with Chinese actors. \u201cInvestments in energy<\/a> will be very welcome. China has developed a lot of equipment for solar energy,\u201d the former foreign minister said as an example. \u201cThe cooperation of Brazil, Mercosur or South America with China in the area of combatting global warming is absolutely fundamental.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, the former minister reflects on his experience of negotiating with the Chinese, adding that this is often a difficult task: \u201cI think that negotiating with China is not easy, breaking this paradigm of us being only an exporter of commodities is also not an easy task, even on relatively simple issues, like soybean oil<\/a>. I am not talking about rocket science, I am talking about soybean oil. It is difficult because the Chinese, quite frankly speaking, they tend to be a little protectionist of their industries,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n

Even so, he stresses that this does not mean there would be conflict in the relationship: \u201cIt is better to have a tough and honest negotiator than a soft and dishonest one.\u201d<\/p>\n

Environment on the agenda<\/h2>\n

Eduardo Viola, international relations professor at the Get\u00falio Vargas Foundation and a researcher at the University of S\u0101o Paulo, recalls that the previous Lula government effectively controlled deforestation in the Amazon, amid the advance of the agricultural frontier, driven mainly by soy and beef. He believes, therefore, that this more sensitive vision of environmental issues would return under the Lula administration. \u201cThis is almost certain because it [deforestation control] was successfully done in Lula\u2019s previous government,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\"desmatamento<\/a>
\u00a0Read more:<\/strong> How the Brazilian elections could determine the future of the Amazon<\/strong><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Asked if the increase in deforestation in Brazil for agricultural and livestock production could harm sales to China, Viola said that, at least for now, the Asian nation sees food security as its priority. China, he adds, \u201cis far from being in a European scenario\u201d, where the pressure for environmental control is greater. \u201cThe trend is that China will be increasingly in favour of controlling deforestation, but the degree to which this will affect Brazilian exports is difficult to assess.\u201d<\/p>\n

The professor adds, however, that a segment of agribusiness has already internationalised the need for transition to a low-carbon economy, even if this is not well represented in the ruralist benches of Brazil\u2019s congress: \u201cThis transformation of agribusiness, in which the incorporation of environmental protection implies higher quality in the food produced, is of increasing interest to China.\u201d<\/p>\n

The first round of Brazil\u2019s presidential elections is scheduled to be held on 2 October, with a second round on 30 October, if required.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts say agribusiness links are likely to continue to advance, but diplomacy may follow different paths depending on the winner of October\u2019s presidential vote<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3882,"featured_media":50057501,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[758],"tags":[50029993,50040720,600],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000021,20000110],"class_list":["post-50057535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-elections","tag-geopolitics","tag-trade","country-brazil","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Brazil\u2019s elections could mean for relations with China | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analysts say strong Brazil\u2013China agribusiness links are likely to continue, but diplomacy may differ depending on next president\" \/>\n<meta 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