{"id":50060043,"date":"2022-10-28T17:32:11","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T16:32:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=60043"},"modified":"2023-08-29T20:31:33","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T19:31:33","slug":"60034-argentina-drought-agriculture-impact-cost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/food\/60034-argentina-drought-agriculture-impact-cost\/","title":{"rendered":"Argentine agriculture counts the cost of prolonged drought"},"content":{"rendered":"

Argentina is suffering the effects of a prolonged drought that has brought disruption to its agricultural sector, driven by the La Ni\u00f1a phenomenon, the weather pattern that tends to bring lower rainfall in the country\u2019s key producing regions.<\/p>\n

With the region now appearing to enter its third consecutive summer of La Ni\u00f1a, the weather pattern has been a key factor in the difficulties faced by farmers during the current cycle, though specialists are also highlighting that the water deficit is directly linked to climate change.<\/p>\n

\n

What is La Ni\u00f1a?<\/p>\n

\n
\nLa Ni\u00f1a is a weather phenomenon that causes fluctuations in sea surfaces temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall, and, in turn, impacts on the global climate.
\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

According to the latest report<\/a> by the National Drought Monitoring Board, 126 million hectares are affected, equivalent to 75% of the agricultural area. The phenomenon is especially felt in the zona n\u00facleo<\/em>, the \u201ccore zone\u201d located in the centre-east of the country, where wheat, corn and soybean production is concentrated.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis situation has caused a large number of producers to delay sowing while waiting for more water,\u201d said Pablo Mercuri, director of natural resources research of the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA).<\/p>\n

According to a recent report<\/a> by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), the low levels of rainfall make it possible to project a drop in wheat and corn production come harvest in 2023. However, for soybean, long the country\u2019s star crop<\/a>, a recovery in production is foreseen, with a likely increase in area sown for the first time in six years.<\/p>\n

But these remain projections, and for the time being there is no consensus among specialists on the true impact that the drought will have on the Argentine economy. The effects, they argue, will depend to a large extent on international prices.<\/p>\n

More than just low rainfall<\/h2>\n

The third consecutive year of La Ni\u00f1a has brought further challenges for many Argentine farmers still reeling from prolonged drought<\/a> during the 2021-22 season.<\/p>\n

As defined<\/a> by the World Meteorological Organization, La Ni\u00f1a is a phenomenon that causes fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific, in addition to other changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/a>
Read more: How South American agriculture is adapting to climate change<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In Argentina, La Ni\u00f1a generally leads to below-average rainfall, felt most acutely in the \u201ccore zone\u201d, meteorologist Leonardo de Benedictis told Di\u00e1logo Chino.<\/p>\n

Jos\u00e9 Luis Aiello, of Consultora de Climatolog\u00eda Aplicada, a consultancy in Buenos Aires, underlines this: \u201cWe have a strong water deficit in the main areas of agricultural production \u2013 that is, [the provinces of] Cordoba, Santa Fe and the centre-north of Buenos Aires.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis obviously affects crops, because both wheat and corn are very complex when there is possibility of planting in places where there is almost no moisture.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is not the first time a \u201ctrilogy\u201d of La Ni\u00f1a has been seen in modern times, with the weather phenomenon striking thrice from 1973 to 1976 and 1998 to 2001. But unlike those cycles, this time it is occurring in the context of intensifying climate change. Although there is no direct link between the two phenomena, understanding their interaction is the subject of ongoing research.<\/p>\n

For INTA\u2019s Mercuri, the current problem for Argentine soils is related to \u201ccumulative\u201d effects that have occurred over recent years. \u201cThere is a progressive prolonging of the dry season, which some research associates with the heavy deforestation registered in the Amazon region, which caused a decrease in the entry of humid winds,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

In the private sector, there is also recognition that the current struggles have roots that go beyond La Ni\u00f1a. \u201cWhat we see in the last decade is that the word \u2018record\u2019 has entered the vocabulary: record rainfall or record lack of water. We are seeing this as an effect of climate change,\u201d said Cristi\u00e1n Russo, head of the Strategic Guide for Agriculture (GEA), a service of the Rosario Stock Exchange.<\/p>\n

Juan Bor\u00fas of the National Water Institute (INA) told Di\u00e1logo Chino that \u201cthe context is so extraordinary that drawing quick conclusions is too hasty, so it is best to wait for the situation to pass before making an in-depth analysis.\u201d<\/p>\n

The impact of drought on crops in Argentina<\/h2>\n

According to the experts consulted, a return to a normal rainfall pattern may not occur until the first few months of next year.<\/p>\n

In its August bulletin<\/a>, the WMO stated that the probability of the current La Ni\u00f1a episode continuing was 70% for September to November, gradually decreasing to 55% for the following quarter, from December to February 2023.<\/p>\n

\"soy<\/a>
Read more: Is Argentina\u2019s soy boom over?<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The timing of La Ni\u00f1a\u2019s passing will have a vital impact on Argentina\u2019s current crop season. The biggest effect, for now, is on wheat, whose cycle traditionally runs from May to December.<\/p>\n

A recent release<\/a> by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that wheat production will stand at 17.5 million tonnes \u2013 the lowest figure in the last seven years \u2013 \u201cas a result of the absence of rainfall\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are heading towards a production disaster,\u201d said Russo, adding that, unlike other seasons, the effects of La Ni\u00f1a \u201cwere not compensated for by other [weather] events\u201d.<\/p>\n

Although with less intensity than in wheat, setbacks are also expected for the output of corn, which is sown between September and October. The Rosario Stock Exchange similarly attributed this mainly to \u201cthe sustained lack of water\u201d.<\/p>\n

Faced with this situation, many corn producers will likely opt for a late sowing, and planted area may even break new records, according to the same BCR report. Pablo Mercuri, from INTA, made a similar prediction, stating that there will be a \u201cmassive migration\u201d towards second cropping \u2013 the sowing during winter \u2013 of corn.<\/p>\n

We are heading towards a production disaster, as the effects of La Ni\u00f1a have not been compensated for by other weather events<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile the production of soybean, a crop that is less sensitive to water deficit, is expected to expand. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has estimated a 10% increase in total output, a turnaround after several cycles of declines.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter almost six seasons, the soybean crop might increase in terms of planted area,\u201d Martin Lopez, an analyst at the exchange, told Reuters<\/a>. He explained that, due to the drought, many producers swapped hectares intended for corn for soybeans.<\/p>\n

The specialist added that a soybean area of 16.7 million hectares is expected, 400,000 hectares more than a year ago, and a corn area of 7.5 million hectares, compared to 7.7 million hectares in the 2021-22 season. Soybeans will also benefit from areas normally planted with wheat that have been lost to drought.<\/p>\n

The impact in numbers<\/h2>\n

The changes caused by the drought will have an impact on the Argentine economy, although given the uncertainty of international prices, it is difficult to estimate the scale.<\/p>\n

Agricultural consultant N\u00e9stor Roulet estimates losses amounting to US$3.3 billion, considering the consequences for wheat, corn and soya. The specialist took into account not only the changes in the sown area, but also the lower yields generated by the water deficit.<\/p>\n

For the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the expected drop could be higher: according to a report<\/a> presented to national authorities, the decline will amount to US$4 billion, which would present a 9% fall compared to the previous season.<\/p>\n

The Argentine government\u2019s draft budget<\/a> for 2023, meanwhile, does not provide a precise figure, but the text presented to Congress suggests a more optimistic view than the estimates of the private sector.<\/p>\n

Given the volatility of international conditions, observers will likely only gain a clearer picture of the full extent of the impacts of Argentina\u2019s ongoing drought once final figures arrive in 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As much as 75% of agricultural land has been affected, as a La Ni\u00f1a weather pattern persists and the effects of climate change intensify<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3882,"featured_media":50060046,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[763,50039903],"tags":[519,543,50040317,607],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020],"class_list":["post-50060043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-food","category-water","tag-climate-impacts","tag-extreme-weather","tag-farming","tag-water-scarcity","country-argentina"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nArgentine agriculture counts the cost of prolonged drought | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Seventy-five percent of Argentina\u2019s agricultural land has been affected, as La Ni\u00f1a persists and the effects of climate change intensify\" \/>\n<meta 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