Pe\u00f1a, an economist, former International Monetary Fund official and eventual candidate for the right-wing Colorado Party, won with 43% of the vote in the 30 April elections \u2013 some way ahead of the broad coalition Concertaci\u00f3n (28%), and the National Crusade (23%), an anti-establishment nationalist party headed by Paraguayo Cubas, who has since been arrested<\/a> after instigating protests over alleged, and unsubstantiated, electoral fraud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Colorado Party, the dominant force in Paraguayan politics, having governed almost without interruption for 75 years, also managed to secure a majority in both houses of the country\u2019s congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Camilo Fil\u00e1rtiga, programme officer for electoral processes at International IDEA, an organisation supporting global democracy, Pe\u00f1a was successful as \u201che managed to unify and discipline the party vote and put forward an effective, traditional and conservative discourse,\u201d as opposed to the \u201cuncertainty\u201d offered by the Concertaci\u00f3n coalition and its candidate, Efra\u00edn Alegre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With his comfortable election out of the way, President-elect Pe\u00f1a must now look ahead to confronting a range of challenges facing his nation, including growing pressures on the environment and climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Much like his fellow leading candidates, Pe\u00f1a made sparing reference to environmental issues during his election campaign, with his ambitions summarised in a single poster, entitled \u201cParaguay Conserves<\/a>\u201d. This presented a range of broad promises, as well as references to existing policies, such as the protection of watercourses that the country depends on for trade and hydroelectricity generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pe\u00f1a\u2019s environmental programme proposes the \u201cstrengthening\u201d of public and private protected areas, which in the country\u2019s east are impacted by illegal cannabis plantations, and in the Chaco region, by the expansion of cattle ranching<\/a> and charcoal production, often on Indigenous lands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Paraguay Conserves poster also highlights the creation of an early warning system for climate risks, though this was already part of the country\u2019s national adaptation policy<\/a> for 2022\u20132030. This system will be important for decision-making in livestock and crop production, which suffered catastrophic losses<\/a> in 2021 when it did not rain for almost a year. These difficulties have been compounded by waves of forest fires since 2020, linked to land clearance for agriculture<\/a> and worsened by heatwaves, the frequency of which has tripled in the last 40 years<\/a> in Paraguay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Santiago Pe\u00f1a also proposes to \u201cpromote renewable energies\u201d. In this area, he faces the historic task of renegotiating part of an agreement struck with Brazil 50 years ago<\/a> that created Itaip\u00fa, one of the world\u2019s largest hydroelectric plants, which straddles the border between the two countries on the Paran\u00e1 River. In 2022, the plant supplied 86.4%<\/a> of all the electricity consumed in Paraguay and 8.7% of Brazil\u2019s total demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One of the central issues of this negotiation \u2013 and one defining the energy transition of a country whose energy mix<\/a> otherwise still depends on fossil fuels and biomass \u2013 is how to make use of the surplus electricity<\/a> that Paraguay is entitled to from Itaip\u00fa. Both nations are entitled to 50% of the generation from the plant, but Paraguay currently sells its surplus to Brazil at low prices, an area in which it hopes to negotiate a more beneficial deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Unlike outgoing president Mario Abdo Ben\u00edtez, who indicated<\/a> that discussions over the short-term details of the two countries\u2019 agreement were a more urgent priority, President-elect Pe\u00f1a said that \u201cParaguay does not need to renegotiate Itaip\u00fa to have that energy now.\u201d He proposes<\/a> \u201csitting down\u201d with Brazilian president Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva to \u201cimagine a relationship that can last for the next 50 years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Guillermo Achucarro, a climate and energy policy researcher at the National University of Asunci\u00f3n, told Di\u00e1logo Chino that the difference in discourse between Abdo and Pe\u00f1a is not in fact significant, and that he is pessimistic about the potential gains for Paraguay from renegotiations. \u201cIf anything is achieved,\u201d he said, \u201cit will be crumbs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Achucarro questioned the way in which Paraguay\u2019s transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy has so far developed, with an emphasis on large infrastructure projects that have benefited from favourable conditions offered by the government, and been surrounded by environmental and social tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Omega Green<\/a> is one such project. A planned biofuels factory that will be South America\u2019s largest when it opens in 2025, it will make use of forest plantations that include pongamia, an exotic species that could compromise the biodiversity of the Chaco region, but which has been declared \u201cnative\u201d by a state resolution<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Elsewhere, a planned green hydrogen factory led by Atome Energy<\/a>, a company started by British oil firm President Energy, was greenlighted during the government of former president Horacio Cartes (2013\u20132018), and granted access to energy at a lower tariff than the market rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Beyond these existing projects for green hydrogen, and biomass, from which Paraguay derives just over a third of its energy, there is no indication yet of how, or if, Pe\u00f1a\u2019s government will approach renewables such as wind and solar. These sources are so far practically non-existent in the country\u2019s energy mix, but as the threats from drought rise due to climate change, and strain hydropower output, the need to diversify generation may become more pressing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Other enduring environmental questions facing the new Pe\u00f1a administration relate to deforestation \u2013 notably in the Chaco, a biome Paraguay shares with Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil \u2013 and the role of the country\u2019s agriculture sector in driving it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Cattle ranching is the primary driver<\/a> of the deforestation, both legal and illegal, that has taken place over the last decade and a half in the Paraguayan Chaco. An official report<\/a> acknowledged that 667,000 hectares of the region were deforested between 2017 and 2020, 88% of the total deforestation recorded in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pe\u00f1a\u2019s Paraguay Conserves poster mentions plans to restore areas of degraded forest and to \u201cstrengthen\u201d national parks and nature reserves, but there has been no suggestion of concerted efforts to combat agriculture-driven deforestation. To the contrary, as Paraguay and its Mercosur partners negotiate a new trade deal with the European Union, the president-elect has denounced environmental conditions<\/a> that look to restrict products linked to forest loss, such as the EU\u2019s new zero-deforestation sourcing law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n During the election campaign, candidates faced pressure from Paraguay\u2019s agriculture sector over relations with China, with many discontent that accessing the Asian nation\u2019s large market remains challenging for the South American country\u2019s products due to its ongoing diplomatic ties with Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Opposition candidate Efra\u00edn Alegre openly questioned these continued relations, but Pe\u00f1a has ruled out a switch. He has said that this is not an obstacle to the business that Paraguay already has with China, claiming that \u201cthere are no restrictions whatsoever.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pe\u00f1a has also argued that the quality of Paraguayan commodities is already an argument to convince potential buyers. \u201cChina is not going to buy Paraguayan meat or soybeans because there is a diplomatic interest,\u201d he said during his campaign. \u201cIt is going to buy because Paraguay has good quality meat and soybeans at competitive prices.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\nParaguay\u2019s energy questions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/div>Deforestation and agriculture<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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