{"id":50370215,"date":"2023-06-06T17:23:44","date_gmt":"2023-06-06T16:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=370215"},"modified":"2023-06-06T21:46:03","modified_gmt":"2023-06-06T20:46:03","slug":"370215-la-nina-ends-but-drought-exposes-deeper-problems-for-argentina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/370215-la-nina-ends-but-drought-exposes-deeper-problems-for-argentina\/","title":{"rendered":"La Ni\u00f1a ends, but drought exposes deeper problems for Argentina"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">Just as he has done for 35 years, Gustavo Recupero inspects some 70,000 hectares of farmland each week across the Pampas region of central Argentina. An agronomist and agricultural engineer, he advises producers here in one of the country\u2019s most fertile farming areas. But, he says, \u201cI\u2019ve never seen this,\u201d speaking of the impacts of a drought that has endured for the past three seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bcr.com.ar\/es\/mercados\/gea\/seguimiento-de-cultivos\/informe-semanal-zona-nucleo\/con-el-escenario-mas-seco-de-los\">data<\/a> from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), since mid-2020, Argentina\u2019s agricultural heartland, covering the provinces of Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa and C\u00f3rdoba, has recorded a water deficit equivalent to an entire year\u2019s rainfall. In 2023, the impacts of this shortfall will reportedly lead to estimated losses to the national economy of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bcr.com.ar\/es\/mercados\/investigacion-y-desarrollo\/informativo-semanal\/noticias-informativo-semanal\/por-la-2\">US$20 billion<\/a>, representing more than 3% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-did-you-know alignleft block--did-you-know\"><p class=\"block--did-you-know__title\">What is La Ni\u00f1a?<\/p><div class=\"block--did-you-know__content\"><p>La Ni\u00f1a is a weather phenomenon that causes fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall, and, in turn, impacts on the global climate<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>This water deficit has been driven primarily by a third consecutive year of La Ni\u00f1a, a natural climatic phenomenon, though the effects of climate change have made the situation more severe. In February, scientists from the World Weather Attribution initiative <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/vulnerability-and-high-temperatures-exacerbate-impacts-of-ongoing-drought-in-central-south-america\/\">reported<\/a> that climate change, while not the direct cause, has exacerbated this period of drought, which has been felt <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/agriculture\/50488-drought-south-america-soy-maize-economy\/\">across South America<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the persistence of La Ni\u00f1a \u2013 which has left farmers and traders <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/article\/60034-argentina-drought-agriculture-impact-cost\/\">counting the cost of failed production<\/a> \u2013 has not been the only contributing factor to these losses, according to experts such as Rub\u00e9n Walter, director of agricultural estimates at the Santa Fe Stock Exchange. Drought, he says, has struck amid continuing soil deterioration due to deep-seated production cycles and practices, which figures across Argentine agriculture are now seeking to address to ensure the sector\u2019s sustainability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-harvest-to-forget\">A harvest to forget<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to the impacts of the drought, this season\u2019s production of Argentina\u2019s three main crops \u2013 soybean, corn and wheat \u2013 will be around 65 million tonnes, a 45% drop year on year, according to BCR data seen by Di\u00e1logo Chino. It has been an especially tough time for soybean production, which is experiencing its worst season in 23 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis year was disastrous,\u201d says Valeria Caponi, a soybean grower from Ca\u00f1ada de G\u00f3mez, a town in the eastern province of Santa Fe. She describes how her best plots yielded, per hectare, just 11 quintals (a unit used in agriculture; one quintal is equivalent to 100 kg), compared to historical yields of around 35 quintals per hectare. \u201cI had others that yielded barely one,\u201d she added. \u201cMy father is 71 years old and he has never seen anything like this.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/14038774\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px;\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>The main indicators show the 2022\/23 will be a season to forget. Perhaps the most striking figure is for Argentina\u2019s unharvested area, the land that was planted but whose crop was lost pre-harvest: according to BCR data, this area amounted to 36.4 million hectares \u2013 three times more than the previous high seen in 2015\/16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The drop in production is set to have a significant impact on Argentina\u2019s foreign trade receipts. BCR estimates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bcr.com.ar\/es\/mercados\/mercado-de-granos\/noticias\/la-soja-en-chicago-perforo-los-us-500t-que-factores-fundamentan\">indicate<\/a> that the country will see a 40% decline in export income from soy, compared to 2021\/22, representing a loss of around US$8 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/14038772\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px;\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Among the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.indec.gob.ar\/uploads\/informesdeprensa\/complejos_03_2309E029401F.pdf\">main destinations<\/a> for Argentina\u2019s soy products are China \u2013 accounting for 90% of soybean trade \u2013 and India, the main buyer of soybean oil. For soybean meal and pellets, exports are more distributed, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Algeria and European Union countries among the top importers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Not only drought<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Drought is the primary cause of Argentina\u2019s drop in agricultural output, but factors related to a \u201ctremendously extractive\u201d production model have contributed, says Recupero, who carries out his advisory work for the Rosario Rural Society. The agronomist describes the situation as \u201cvery serious\u201d, with 30% of soybean fields seeing yields between 0 and 4 quintals per hectare, when usually those figures range between 28 and 32 quintals per hectare, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/1n7Tp2cRmor14aUzOskTME9zVTkLicoN5\/view?usp=sharing\">report<\/a> he recently authored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rub\u00e9n Walter of the Santa Fe Stock Exchange echoes Recupero\u2019s concerns. \u201cFor the last ten years or so, we have been observing a process of physical deterioration of the soil,\u201d he explains. \u201cThe structure of the soil \u2013 its permeability, the internal movement of the roots \u2013 is not in the same condition as it was a decade ago.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Sergio Montico, a professor of land management in the National University of Rosario\u2019s Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Argentina\u2019s process of soil degradation has been underway for decades. \u201cWe have not done things right in terms of technological practices to mitigate it,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"50055131\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Several agricultural producers consulted by Di\u00e1logo Chino share this view, but they defend themselves, pointing out the difficulty of making the necessary investments to improve soil health. \u201cThey are uneconomical, in the face of tax pressure or market disruption,\u201d says one farmer, who asked not to be named. \u201cYou only invest in what you can, to be honest,\u201d says another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In November 2022, the World Bank published a <a href=\"https:\/\/openknowledge.worldbank.org\/server\/api\/core\/bitstreams\/c4526335-714e-5277-8f54-fd4aa83aba8c\/content\">report<\/a> in which it recommended a series of measures for Argentine agriculture in the context of frequent and persistent droughts. It stated that the sector could help to ensure its resilience by adopting <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/agriculture\/54432-how-south-america-agriculture-climate-change-adaptation\/\">climate-smart techniques<\/a>, drought-resistant crops and index-based insurance schemes, under which pay-outs are related to factors such as rainfall levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Initiatives to improve water management are also underway, such as the Argentine government\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.argentina.gob.ar\/economia\/planificacion-del-desarrollo-y-la-competitividad-federal\/plan-integral-argentina-irrigada#:~:text=Argentina%20Irrigada%20es%20un%20plan,la%20incorporaci%C3%B3n%20de%20riego%20tecnificado.\">national plan<\/a> to expand sustainable irrigation systems, launched in April. Currently, only 5% of the country\u2019s 42 million hectares of farmland is irrigated, and the plan aims to invest US$2 billion to double this area. So far projects covering roughly 160,000 hectares have been implemented, but the announcement of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/argentina-secures-initial-irrigation-funding-after-withering-drought-2023-04-28\">new financing<\/a> may help towards the plan\u2019s ambitious goal of extending irrigation systems on 1.9 million additional hectares of land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-pull-quote block--pull-quote\"><div class=\"block--pull-quote__wrapper\"><blockquote class=\"block--pull-quote__quote\">The way we do agriculture in Argentina, we are not used to making forecasts, planning, mitigating or adapting<\/blockquote><cite class=\"block--pull-quote__cite\">Sergio Montico, land management professor, National University of Rosario<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Montico, who has been working for more than three decades in soil management and conservation practices, the country must make up for lost time, as a passive attitude has pervaded for too long. \u201cThe way we do agriculture in Argentina, we are not used to making forecasts, planning, mitigating or adapting,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Walter agrees, describing a dismissiveness around soil degradation among many seasoned farmers accustomed to the vicissitudes of production. \u201cThere is a phrase I often hear when I go to the field,\u201d he explains, \u201cthat the soil \u2018will hold out\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Will the soil hold out?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With work set to begin soon for the upcoming season, this extended period of severe drought is expected to fade into memory. But it will not be a season with normal water levels. Both Mario Navarro, director of the meteorological observatory for the city of Salsipuedes in C\u00f3rdoba province, and Jos\u00e9 Luis Stella, a climatologist for the National Meteorological Service, tell Di\u00e1logo Chino of the projected arrival of El Ni\u00f1o, the counterpart weather phenomenon to La Ni\u00f1a that will likely bring above-average rainfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For some, this could be seen as great news, counteracting the three years of drought driven by La Ni\u00f1a. However, the experts warn, readings are not entirely linear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"hide-expand block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/20230606_Dry-soybean-plants-in-dry-soil-in-Argentina_Ruben-Walter.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/20230606_Dry-soybean-plants-in-dry-soil-in-Argentina_Ruben-Walter-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/20230606_Dry-soybean-plants-in-dry-soil-in-Argentina_Ruben-Walter-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/20230606_Dry-soybean-plants-in-dry-soil-in-Argentina_Ruben-Walter.jpg 2560w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2560px\" alt=\"Dry soybean plants in dry soil in Argentina\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">Dry soybean plants in dried-out soil. The 2022\/23 soybean harvest is projected to be Argentina\u2019s worst in 23 years (Image: Rub\u00e9n Walter)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/20230606_Dry-soybean-plants-in-dry-soil-in-Argentina_Ruben-Walter.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"3 MB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1920\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2560\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt cannot be expected that after one or two rains, within two months, the soil profile will be in optimal condition again,\u201d says Rub\u00e9n Walter. Groundwater, he says, \u201cwill be partially recharged, but a good part of the water will run off. We will have areas with a lot of water running off, and if we measure the soil, we will see, at [a depth of] 80 or 90 centimetres, a lack of water.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With soils in their \u201cdriest condition in the last 30 years\u201d, according to BCR analyst Marina Barletta, the outlook for Argentine agriculture is still uncertain. A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bolsadecereales.com\/download\/informe_climatico\/documento1\/624\">report<\/a> from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange puts it most clearly: though intense rains may come, after three years of drought, \u201cquick relief should not be expected\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Farmers will see the worst soybean harvest in 23 years, as poor soil health compounds impacts of drought<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000096,"featured_media":50370301,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761,50039903],"tags":[543,50040317,595,607],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020],"class_list":["post-50370215","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","category-water","tag-extreme-weather","tag-farming","tag-soy","tag-water-scarcity","country-argentina"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La Ni\u00f1a ends, but drought exposes deeper problems for Argentina | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Farmers will see the worst soybean harvest in 23 years, as poor soil health compounds impacts of drought\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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A farmer walks through the rows of a dry soybean field. In Argentina, the soybean harvest in the current season will be 25 percent smaller than expected; instead of 49 million tons, it will probably be 37 million tons, according to forecasts by the grain exchange in Rosario. 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A farmer walks through the rows of a dry soybean field. In Argentina, the soybean harvest in the current season will be 25 percent smaller than expected; instead of 49 million tons, it will probably be 37 million tons, according to forecasts by the grain exchange in Rosario. 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