Ar\u00e9valo\u2019s securing of a spot in the runoff was \u201ca surprise\u201d, said Gabriela Carrera, a political science professor at Rafael Land\u00edvar University in Guatemala City. But she added that his success was representative of \u201ca feeling of an anti-vote, a rejection of what we call the \u2018pact of corruption\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The \u201c<\/a>pacto de corruptos<\/em><\/a>\u201d<\/a> is a term that has gained prevalence in Guatemala to refer to politicians, powerful business and organised crime figures, and members of the judicial system accused of acts of corruption, and maintaining a system of impunity that protects them from prosecution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Semilla\u2019s progressive platform has met resistance from the current government and elements of this so-called pact, as well as from the Guatemalan right wing. Claims of electoral fraud were lodged by a number of minor parties \u2013 and ultimately deemed to be false<\/a> \u2013 while attempts have also been made in the country\u2019s courts to suspend<\/a> the Semilla party, and to launch investigations into citizen poll observers and those involved in digitising election results. Semilla also saw its offices raided by police<\/a> after the attorney general\u2019s attempted suspension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These efforts have, however, been futile, as the country\u2019s electoral tribunal, the TSE, has upheld<\/a> the party\u2019s legitimacy and the results of the first round of the elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The lead-up to the elections also saw controversy, as the TSE and Guatemalan courts moved to exclude<\/a> several candidates, including Indigenous leftist leader Thelma Cabrera and right-wing populists Roberto \u00c1rzu and Carlos Pineda, leading many analysts to fear the elections were being manipulated to advocate for candidates who favored the status quo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In this fraught run-up, policy plans have often struggled to make headlines amid the legal wrangling, and have met with an electorate seemingly frustrated with the entire political class \u2013 spoiled ballots led the way in the first round with 17% of the vote, ahead of both Torres and Ar\u00e9valo. As the August runoff nears, corruption and security are likely to be the key issues for Guatemalan voters; the environment, in a country suffering from widespread pollution and degradation, has gained little attention, though Semilla, in particular, has made a number of pledges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As Guatemala heads to the polls again, we weigh up the prospects for the environment in the upcoming election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Amidst a chaotic backdrop, the success of Ar\u00e9valo and the Movimiento Semilla, or Seed Movement, has surprised some observers, in its break away from the traditional lack of environmental proposals that has marked party platforms in recent electoral seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the campaign trail, environmental issues and climate change received almost no attention from poll-leading candidates, besides consistent calls to clear Guatemala\u2019s polluted waterways, an estimated 90\u201395%<\/a> of which are polluted. But the unexpected rise of Semilla \u2013 which became a party in 2018, having emerged from anti-government protests in 2015 \u2013 has brought more environmental concerns into the debate, given their inclusion of a wider range of green proposals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere is a very rapid deterioration of natural resources and there are no efforts being made for their preservation or conservation,\u201d says Karin Herrera, a biologist and Semilla\u2019s vice-presidential candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cPolitical will, commitment, and dialogue are needed to generate this awareness about the importance [of the environment],\u201d she says. \u201cThe beautiful natural resources that we have cannot continue to be so neglected by the state. We need to enter with strength and commitment to preserve them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Guatemala has previously been ranked as one of the ten countries most vulnerable<\/a> to the effects of climate change, and has been increasingly affected by more intense hurricanes and periods of drought. The country is also facing environmental degradation due a lack of compliance with regulations, and a worsening situation for its small farmers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Central American country contains vast biodiversity<\/a>, being the home to nearly 14,000 different plant and animal species. But Guatemala\u2019s economy is largely dependent on the exploitation of its natural resources and environment, for the production of bananas, coffee, palm oil, sugar and spices, among other key products. While legislation exists to address the management of forests, solid and liquid waste management, and water, among other regulations, there is a general lack of compliance<\/a> with legislation to protect the environment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe problem is that many of these laws only remain on paper,\u201d says Raul Maas, the lead of the Institute for Research and Projection on Natural Environment and Society at the Rafael Land\u00edvar University. As a result, Guatemala has seen a rapid rate of deforestation<\/a>, pollution of its waterways, and the degradation of soils, with their health facing pressure from agribusiness and farmers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All these factors of environmental degradation have wider impacts on society, including increasingly driving many people to attempt to migrate<\/a> from Guatemala, notably to the United States, in search of a better livelihood. The continuation of these often destructive extractive practices reflects the impunity that has spread in Guatemala, which contributes to further degradation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These environmental challenges are being made worse by the effects of climate change. According to a recent study<\/a>, the loss of forests in Central America due to climate change could lead to economic costs of as much as $314 billion dollars a year by 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe situation is quite precarious without the effects of climate change,\u201d Maas says. \u201cAdd to this the variable of climate change, and the question becomes much more critical.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n As Guatemala faces up to these environmental crises, Semilla has proposed a set of policies within their government plan<\/a> that would seek to address the degradation. These include the investment of nearly US$900 million into the country\u2019s system for the protection forests and protected areas, with the goal of strengthening not only the forests themselves but also the sources of water that the country relies on, and coastal mangroves to mitigate the effects of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Within its government plan, Semilla says it hopes to also strengthen the communities that rely on natural resources for sectors such as ecotourism. Added to this, are pledges to expand support for the communal lands and forests of Indigenous communities, upon request.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These initiatives would be \u201ca massive investment,\u201d says Patricia Orantes Thomas, an environmental expert and Semilla deputy elected to the national congress in June. \u201cBecause this also has environmental returns, it has revenues in terms of water production, it has returns in the mitigation and protection from climate change, but it also has economic returns because people will be reforesting and managing the forests.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Semilla is also seeking to address the impunity that exists in Guatemala in regards to the environment. Orantes Thomas says that, if elected, their government will seek to modify the legal code to improve the handling of environmental crimes, beginning with addressing the contamination of waters and the division of rivers for business interests, which has become a major issue<\/a> in the last decade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n On the other side of the runoff, Sandra Torres and the National Unity of Hope party have made no clear proposals related to the environment. This continues what has been seen as a lacklustre record<\/a> on the environment in recent years for the party \u2013 a formerly social democratic but increasingly conservative populist party, which has served one term in government (2008\u20132012), and faced allegations of corruption<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cUnfortunately, the National Unity of Hope party does not specifically address issues related to the environment within its [government] plan,\u201d says Elvis Caballeros, a climate risk researcher at the Rafael Land\u00edvar University. \u201cIt does not have any proposal \u2013 they do not give it priority.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\nGuatemala\u2019s environmental issues<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/div>Environmental policy proposals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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