{"id":50382917,"date":"2023-11-01T15:45:51","date_gmt":"2023-11-01T15:45:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogochino.net\/?p=382917"},"modified":"2023-12-13T12:32:50","modified_gmt":"2023-12-13T12:32:50","slug":"382917-historic-amazon-drought-explained","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/forests\/382917-historic-amazon-drought-explained\/","title":{"rendered":"Historic drought in the Amazon, explained"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

For around two months now, a severe drought has been ravaging<\/a> the west of the Brazilian Amazon and reaching across the border to other South American countries that share the rainforest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The crisis is most serious<\/a> in the state of Amazonas, which, although under increasing pressure from illegal deforestation, especially in its southern part, still has the highest proportion<\/a> of preserved native vegetation and watercourses of any state in Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But neither the resilience of the forest nor the abundance of water in the Amazon, whose basin is the largest in the world by volume and area, have been able to halt the devastating damage caused by the ongoing drought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a catastrophe foretold,\u201d says Luciana Gatti, a researcher at the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), whose monitoring has shown how the Amazon biome is losing its capacity to produce rain<\/a> and store carbon<\/a> as deforestation has progressed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As rivers across the Amazon basin have recorded historic lows<\/a>, boats carrying people and commodities<\/a> have been prevented from reaching their destinations, and Indigenous and riverside communities have been left isolated<\/a>. <\/em>The drought, combined with the extreme heat of an abnormally warm South American winter, may have been responsible<\/a> for the death of more than 170 dolphins in Amazonas \u2013 unprecedented in the biome \u2013 and has facilitated the spread of fires, the smoke from which has created apocalyptic scenes<\/a> in the state capital, Manaus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Smoke covers Manaus on 11 October, caused by forest fires near the city. The day saw Manaus record some of the world\u2019s worst air quality levels. (Image: Alberto C\u00e9sar Ara\u00fajo<\/a> \/ Amaz\u00f4nia Real<\/a>, CC BY-NC-ND<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In one of the planet\u2019s most water- and biodiversity-rich regions, animals and people have died or been left suffering from unhealthy conditions, hunger and thirst. So why has the Amazon been unable to cope with these climate pressures? And what lies ahead?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How intense and rare is this Amazon drought?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Brazil\u2019s Amazon region experiences two seasons a year: the dry and the rainy. Amazonians have grown accustomed to the cyclical nature of fluctuations in river levels. But what is no longer so predictable, according to experts, is the intensity and frequency of dry and wet spells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where they used to occur once every two decades, intense droughts are now more regular, according to Carlos Nobre, a climate scientist and researcher at the University of S\u00e3o Paulo, who highlights five similar episodes that have happened since 2005. \u201cClimate change has greatly increased the frequency and severity of these droughts,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This year\u2019s drought may eclipse the last severe episode in the region. One of the Amazon\u2019s most acute<\/a> droughts came in 2015 during the dry season between May and October, dragging on into the wet season of the first half of 2016, with rains 50% below expected levels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climatologists consulted by Di\u00e1logo Chino say they are waiting for the rainy season to arrive in November to assess the extent of this year\u2019s drought. \u201cWe still don’t know if this drought will beat the record of 2015 and 2016,\u201d says Nobre. \u201cIn some places, it already is, such as in the Negro river basin.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week saw a series of historic lows recorded on the Negro River, which flows from its source in eastern Colombia for more than 2,200 kilometres into the Amazon River at Manaus. On 26 October, its level dropped to 12.7 metres at the port of Manaus, the lowest<\/a> level measured in 121 years. At the other end of the scale, its record high was set during an unprecedented flood in June 2021, reaching a high of 30.02 metres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are the causes of the drought?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Between 2020 and mid-2023, Brazil felt the impacts of La Ni\u00f1a<\/a>, a climate phenomenon causing an abnormal cooling of the Pacific Ocean, which alters the formation of winds and brings more rain to the Brazilian Amazon. The region is now under the influence of El Ni\u00f1o, the counterpart climate phenomenon that warms these waters, changing the wind distribution and causing droughts stronger than those experienced seasonally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n