{"id":50384031,"date":"2023-11-14T14:04:03","date_gmt":"2023-11-14T14:04:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogochino.net\/?p=384031"},"modified":"2023-12-01T11:51:22","modified_gmt":"2023-12-01T11:51:22","slug":"384031-what-do-argentinas-elections-mean-for-relations-with-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/384031-what-do-argentinas-elections-mean-for-relations-with-china\/","title":{"rendered":"What do Argentina\u2019s elections mean for relations with China?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Argentina will head to the polls this week to decide its next president<\/a> in one of its closest ever election races, with voters faced with two hugely differing visions for the country\u2019s future at home and abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sunday\u2019s second-round runoff will pit Sergio Massa, currently economy minister for the ruling centre-left coalition, against radical libertarian Javier Milei, who surprised analysts when he gained the largest share of votes in the country\u2019s August primaries \u2013 and whose extreme positions and proposals have made headlines<\/a> around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most polls<\/a> have indicated an almost inseparably tight race since an indecisive first round vote on 22 October triggered the runoff. Massa secured<\/a> nearly 37% of votes to Milei\u2019s 30%, while the third-placed candidate, the conservative Patricia Bullrich, has since endorsed<\/a> the campaign of Milei and his party, La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advances).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The election comes as Argentina faces ongoing economic struggles, and a deepening crisis that appears to have left its population increasingly weary of the political establishment, which many point to as fuelling the rise of Milei. Billion-dollar foreign debt<\/a> is straining government finances, 40%<\/a> of the country\u2019s 46 million people are reportedly living in poverty, and year-on-year inflation is nearing 140%<\/a> \u2013 a rise that has occurred on the watch of Massa and the governing Uni\u00f3n por la Patria (Union for the Homeland).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

The results of Sunday\u2019s election may not only change Argentina\u2019s domestic policies but also its foreign outlook, campaign pledges from both candidates suggest. Notably, Milei has said he will not maintain political ties with China or any \u201ccommunist<\/a>\u201d country, limiting relations to the private sector, while Massa sees China continuing to be a key partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Argentina has significantly deepened relations with China since the government of former president Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner (2007\u20132015). The current administration of Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez has maintained this closeness since taking office in 2019, finding in China an ally during the Covid-19 pandemic<\/a> and the country\u2019s economic crisis, and overseeing Argentina\u2019s joining the Belt and Road Initiative<\/a> (BRI), China\u2019s flagship global infrastructure development programme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is also now Argentina\u2019s second-largest trade partner after Brazil. Argentina\u2019s agribusiness sector plays a leading role<\/a> in this relationship, with 92% of the country\u2019s exports of soybeans and 57% of its meat shipments sent to China last year. China has also made notable investments in the country\u2019s energy sector and its growing lithium industry<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Massa and Milei on foreign policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During his campaign, Massa has signalled that he will look for continuity with the current administration on China policy. \u201cIt is one of our most important trading partners, the second [largest]. We aspire to consolidate this flow of trade,\u201d the economy minister told reporters<\/a> after the first round of the elections. More broadly, Gustavo Mart\u00ednez Pandiani, an adviser to Massa, has said his government would have a \u201cpragmatic\u201d foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Argentina currently has a US$18 billion currency swap<\/a> line with China, which it has tapped during Massa\u2019s term as economy minister to help pay back part of its debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In August, Argentina was invited<\/a> to join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as a full member of the BRICS group of emerging economies, partly thanks to the support from China<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the lead-up to the election, Sabino Vaca Narvaja, Argentina\u2019s ambassador to China, said<\/a> breaking ties with China would lead to the loss of \u201cmillions of jobs\u201d and a \u201ctriple productive, social and financial implosion\u201d. He highlighted the many infrastructure projects funded by Chinese banks in Argentina, such as two hydropower dams in Patagonia<\/a>, and said these initiatives could be suspended any break in the countries\u2019 ties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese projects in Argentina: energy in the spotlight<\/span>
\n

\u2622 Nuclear<\/strong>
In 2022, state-owned energy company Nucleoel\u00e9ctrica Argentina<\/a> and the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) signed a contract for the construction of a fourth nuclear power plant<\/a> in Argentina, Atucha III, which will reportedly be 85% financed by Chinese banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2600\ufe0f Wind and solar<\/strong>
Chinese state-owned PowerChina<\/a> is the largest renewable energy contractor in Argentina, having participated<\/a> in the development of 11 projects in wind, solar and infrastructure. Those in operation include Cauchar\u00ed, the second largest solar plant in Latin America, located in the northern province of Jujuy, and the Loma Blanca wind farms in Chubut, in the country’s south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u26cf Lithium<\/strong>
China is also a key player in Argentina’s nascent lithium industry: Chinese mining firm Zijin is investing US$380 million<\/a> in the construction of a lithium carbonate plant in Catamarca province; Ganfeng Lithium is developing the Mariana lithium production project<\/a> in Salar de Llullaillaco in Salta province, which is already in its first operational phase<\/a>; Ganfeng also owns 51% of the Cauchar\u00ed-Olaroz project in Jujuy province, which is already in operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udca7 Hydropower<\/strong>
Also among the notable Chinese-backed projects in Argentina are two contentious hydropower projects in Patagonia, the Jorge Cepernic and N\u00e9stor Kirchner dams<\/a>. Their construction started in 2015 and they are expected to begin operations in 2027 or 2028, after years of obstacles.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Milei has indicated that, if elected, he would look to break off relations with China due to its ruling by the Communist Party, labelling the country an \u201cassassin<\/a>\u201d and claiming that its citizens are not \u201cfree\u201d. He has also promised to pull Argentina out of Mercosur<\/a>, the trading bloc of South American nations, and has described<\/a> Brazil\u2019s President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva as a \u201csocialist with a totalitarian vocation\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Diana Mondino, likely to be Milei\u2019s foreign minister, said<\/a> his statements have been blown out of context and that their potential government would seek open and transparent relations with all countries. Milei would only stop \u201csecret\u201d state-to-state agreements, Mondino said, referring to Argentina\u2019s currency swap with China. \u201cWe don\u2019t know the interest rate we\u2019ll have to pay,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson for China\u2019s foreign ministry, responded to Milei\u2019s statements<\/a> by inviting him to visit China. \u201cI believe that if Mr Milei can come to China and see the country for himself, he will find a totally different answer to the question of whether or not Chinese people are free and China is safe,\u201d Wang said in an August press conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the final presidential debate<\/a> between the candidates, held on 12 November, Massa sought to remind Milei of the importance of China for the national economy, as it accounts for a large share of many Argentine provinces\u2019 exports. Milei replied by claiming Argentina could simply find other trade partners, and dismissed Massa\u2019s statements that jobs would be affected by changes in the relationship with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The future of the relationship<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Foreign policy experts told Di\u00e1logo Chino that while the relationship with China might change if Milei is elected, ties are not likely to be fully broken. Several recalled that former president Mauricio Macri (2015-2019) had also questioned<\/a> the relationship with China, but that the two countries continued to engage with each other throughout his administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina will engage with Argentina in whatever form possible, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election,\u201d said Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America programme at the Inter-American Dialogue. \u201cThat said, a Milei win would no doubt result in a rethinking of relations with China, and possibly even a review of existing projects.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myers pointed to the two dams in Patagonia, currently under construction<\/a> and subject to cross-default clauses, meaning that their cancellation would lead to the cancellation of other China-financed projects. Argentina is also negotiating the construction of a new nuclear plant <\/a>with China, which could be put on hold if Milei is elected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Aerial<\/div>
Aerial view of construction of the Chinese-backed Jorge Cepernic hydroelectric power plant in Santa Cruz province, Argentina. Some commentators fear that, if elected president, Milei will not continue with the project. (Image: Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Jorge Malena, director of the Asian affairs committee of the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI), said that while Massa would deepen the relationship with China due to the \u201cfinancial and political dependency,\u201d Milei would have to moderate his stance due to the role that China has as a key trade partner and investor in Argentina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ignacio Villagran, director of the Argentina-China Studies Centre (ACSC) at the University of Buenos Aires, agrees: \u201cFor China, it doesn\u2019t make a difference who is in power as long as the investment projects continue. While there\u2019s a question mark on Milei, he won\u2019t have a say on what the provinces agree with China.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Argentina\u2019s federal structure means its provinces can engage with China independently from the national government. This has been the case of the northern province of Jujuy, for example, with the province hosting Cauchari, a 300 MW solar plant financed by Chinese banks, as well as a lithium extraction plant<\/a> partly owned by Chinese mining firm Ganfeng Lithium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For China, it doesn\u2019t make a difference who is in power as long as the investment projects continue<\/blockquote>Ignacio Villagran, Argentina-China Studies Centre (ACSC) at the University of Buenos Aires<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDespite Milei\u2019s statements, it is unlikely that the Argentine-Chinese relationship will worsen significantly or permanently, as it is based on a growing economic relationship in terms of trade, investment and, most recently, the extension of the [currency] swap,\u201d said Pepe Zhang, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guo Cunhai, coordinator of the Centre for China and Latin America Studies (CECLA) at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the relationship between China and Argentina has withstood complex situations before and will likely continue to do so. \u201cThe basis of the relationship is mutual need. Cooperation will benefit both sides and division will harm both,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whichever candidate wins this Sunday\u2019s second-round runoff will assume the presidency on 10 December, two days before the end of COP28<\/a>, the United Nations\u2019 upcoming climate change conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marina Bello contributed additional reporting for this story.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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