{"id":50390353,"date":"2024-03-04T19:20:47","date_gmt":"2024-03-04T19:20:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogochino.net\/?p=390353"},"modified":"2024-04-11T11:57:32","modified_gmt":"2024-04-11T11:57:32","slug":"390353-where-next-for-argentina-china-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/390353-where-next-for-argentina-china-relations\/","title":{"rendered":"Where next for Argentina-China relations?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Since taking power in December, the government of far-right libertarian Javier Milei has signalled some potentially abrupt turns in Argentina\u2019s foreign policy, which could reshape its relationship with China<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The past two decades have seen the countries continually strengthen their bilateral ties, leading to growing trade, diplomatic cooperation, and increased investment and financial assistance from China. However, President Milei and members of his government have expressed a desire to seek closer alignment with the United States, and weaken relations with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given China\u2019s economic importance as Argentina\u2019s second-largest<\/a> trading partner, and the destination for close to 10% of its exports, the Milei government\u2019s potential pivot has raised alarm bells for some analysts. But the structure and long-term ties of trade and investment between the two countries suggests relations could remain durable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Di\u00e1logo Chino spoke with several experts in Argentina on the possible impacts of the government\u2019s ambiguous signals on China, and the future of relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Decisions and gestures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the most concrete development in Argentina-China relations since the Milei era began is his government\u2019s decision to pull out of the planned expansion of the BRICS emerging economies bloc, of which China is a member alongside Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Argentina had been set to join BRICS in January after being invited<\/a> in 2023, with Brazil and China the driving force behind the country\u2019s candidacy. In a letter<\/a> to the bloc in late December, Milei said that Argentina\u2019s current foreign policy priorities differ from those of the previous government of former president Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In mid-January, the new foreign minister Diana Mondino met with the Chinese ambassador to Argentina and said<\/a> \u201cthere is no doubt about the importance of trade between the two countries.\u201d In turn, the ambassador affirmed<\/a> that he hopes \u201cfriendship and cooperation\u201d between the two countries will continue under Milei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, just two days after this meeting, Milei reposted<\/a> controversial comments on X, formerly Twitter: \u201cThe Left wants you to have Cuba\u2019s salary, North Korea\u2019s freedom, Chinese justice and Venezuela\u2019s abundance.\u201d The TV pundit-turned-president rose to fame by rallying against left-wing politics and governments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Javier<\/div>
Since taking office in December, Milei\u2019s government has delivered mixed messages on relations with China, with his often aggressive personal positions balanced by ministers\u2019 more diplomatic language in bilateral meetings. (Image: Florencia Martin \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

When asked about the situation in a subsequent press conference, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin commented<\/a> that China is \u201cready to work with Argentina to cement political mutual trust, enhance high-quality Belt and Road<\/a> cooperation [and] tap on our complementary advantages\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After this series of ups and downs in the first few months of the Milei government, Mondino and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met in February on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. The pair took the opportunity to reiterate<\/a> their commitment to maintaining strong relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The business relationship<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last year, China was the destination for 7.9%<\/a> of Argentina\u2019s exports by value, totalling US$5.27 billion. It was the third-largest buyer, behind Brazil and the United States. Meanwhile, China was the source of 19.7% of Argentina\u2019s imports, totalling US$14.5 billion, behind only Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soy products<\/a>, beef<\/a>, barley, shrimp, prawns and lithium carbonate<\/a> are among Argentina\u2019s main exports to China. Imports from China include components for mobile phones, televisions and other electrical appliances, cars and auto parts, fertilisers and electric generators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the bumps since Milei\u2019s rise, the countries\u2019 agricultural relationship in particular seem unlikely to be impacted given its importance to both sides, suggests Mario Quinteros, an Argentine former diplomat in China: \u201cMilei has had unconstructive attitudes towards China. However, it is necessary to bear in mind that China operates with a long-term perspective and that in terms of trade there are mutual benefits: Argentina\u2019s agricultural exports improve its trade balance but are also important to ensure China’s food supply.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While China may find new suppliers of soy and meat, Argentina would not find an alternative buyer<\/blockquote>Gonzalo Ghiggino, researcher at Argentina\u2019s National Scientific and Technical Research Council<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Gonzalo Ghiggino, a researcher at Argentina\u2019s National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), argues that good relations with China are not optional for Argentina: \u201cMost likely, Milei will keep the relationship on autopilot. On the trade issue there are certain risks, because while China may find new suppliers of soy and meat in Brazil, Australia and the United States, Argentina would not find an alternative buyer to China.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On trade, economist Julio Sevares, who has written on the implications of US-China tensions for Argentina, adds that the country must tread carefully: \u201cThere are negotiations for the entry of products into China, such as Argentine wheat, which has just been approved<\/a> after 25 years of negotiations. A deterioration in political ties could have potential commercial impacts.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cooling off?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Maria Francesca Staiano, coordinator of Chinese studies at the National University of La Plata, recalls that former president Mauricio Macri (2015-2019) also proposed prioritising alliances with the United States and Europe, and called Argentina\u2019s links with China into question<\/a> during his election campaign \u2013 although not as aggressively as Milei, who labelled<\/a> China an \u201cassassin\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Milei is unbalanced person, but after an initial cooling-off the situation will gradually settle down<\/blockquote>Maria Francesca Staiano, coordinator of Chinese studies at the National University of La Plata<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to the countries\u2019 deep economic interdependence and existing cooperation agreements, Macri was ultimately unable to bring much distance into the relationship. In fact, in 2017, he attended<\/a> the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, although Argentina would not join the initiative until 2022<\/a>, under his successor Fern\u00e1ndez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven though Milei is a much more unbalanced person, the same thing will happen: after an initial cooling-off phase, the situation will gradually settle down again,\u201d says Staiano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jorge Malena, director of the postgraduate course in China studies at the Catholic University of Argentina, thinks similarly. Although Milei\u2019s statements during the presidential campaign and at the beginning of his government signalled a desire to weaken the relationship between the two countries, Malena says \u201cthe reality shows that during the beginning of the administration, there has been a change in stance vis-\u00e0-vis Beijing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In late December, amid uncertainty over the new government\u2019s stance, China suspended<\/a> the US$6.5 billion currency-swap line that had been negotiated<\/a> with Argentina\u2019s previous administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In total, Argentina has an US$18 billion currency-swap line with China, which has allowed it to pay off part of its international debts. During 2023, Argentina was able to access US$5 billion<\/a> of this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWithout that tranche of the swap, it would have been impossible to contain the fall in GDP to 1.1% and unemployment to its lowest level since 1991, given the historic drought,\u201d explains the former vice-president of the Central Bank of Argentina, Jorge Carrera. (He refers to the three-year drought that severely impacted the country\u2019s agricultural output<\/a>.) \u201cI think it would be a mistake for this government to neglect the relationship with China and for that to affect this source of financing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No further news has yet emerged on the status of the swap line\u2019s renegotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investments<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

China is increasingly investing in Argentina\u2019s mining sector. Of the 12 projects with Chinese capital in the country, seven are in lithium, with the remainder covering gold, silver, copper, lead and iron ore. According to Ghiggino, these operations are \u201cunlikely to be in danger, because lithium is of a strategic nature\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major lithium investment includes Chinese mining giant Ganfeng Lithium\u2019s commitment to develop the Mariana project<\/a>, and the agreement between L\u00edtica Resources and Ganfeng to acquire the Pozuelos Pastos Grandes<\/a> project, both located in the northern province of Salta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>
Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

Other Chinese mining investments include: Shandong Gold\u2019s 50% stake in the Veladero gold deposit<\/a>; Zijin Mining\u2019s development of the Tres Quebradas lithium project in Catamarca province; and steelmaker Tsingshan\u2019s partnership with French mining group Eramet to develop a lithium plant in the Centenario-Ratones salt flats<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Diego Guelar, who served as the Argentine ambassador in Beijing between 2015 and 2019, \u201cChina is not going to be tempted by short-term declarations and instead a long-term vision is going to prevail.\u201d But he cautions that \u201cpolitical ups and downs will affect the dynamics of infrastructure investment\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The uncertainty surrounding infrastructure works with financial support from China could be cause for concern amid an abrupt drop<\/a> in domestic funding for public works. Announced by Milei\u2019s government, this drop is part of its fiscal adjustment plan. \u201cThe financing of infrastructure investments could fall, in a context where it is more necessary than ever,\u201d warns Gonzalo Ghiggino. Guelar, meanwhile, highlights the potential of Argentine provinces to make their own cooperation agreements with their Chinese counterparts in this area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The largest Chinese infrastructure investment project in Argentina is currently the construction of two hydroelectric dams<\/a> on the Santa Cruz River, in the southern province of the same name. Although works began in 2015, political and macroeconomic instability have caused numerous delays to their progress, with the works still less than halfway to completion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"vista<\/div>
Aerial view of the Jorge Cepernic hydroelectric power plant under construction in Santa Cruz province. Along with the N\u00e9stor Kirchner dam, the delayed project \u2013 the biggest Chinese infrastructure investment in Argentina \u2013 has faced criticism over its feasibility. (Image: Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

On renewable energy, China is also a key partner for Argentina. Among the most notable projects financed by Chinese entities are the Loma Blanca (Chubut) and Miramar (Buenos Aires) wind farms, operated by the firm Goldwind, and the Vientos del Secano project (Buenos Aires), by Envision Energy. In solar, the most significant development is the Cauchari solar farm<\/a>, the largest in the country, for which the northern province of Jujuy has reportedly struck<\/a> an agreement with Shanghai Electric Power Construction to expand the project this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another notable aspect of the bilateral relationship is Argentina\u2019s transport sector. Among the most important projects is the rehabilitation of the Belgrano Cargas freight railway line, which is being carried out by the Chinese company China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC). The company has already disbursed<\/a> almost US$2.5 billion towards the project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, CMEC has shown interest<\/a> in financing the reactivation of the Tren Norpatag\u00f3nico railway, which would connect the vast Vaca Muerta oil and gas field with the port of Bah\u00eda Blanca.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Alberto<\/div>
During his trip to China in October 2023, Argentina\u2019s then-president Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez met with executives of CMEC, the Chinese company in charge of the country\u2019s Belgrano Cargas freight railway project (Image: Casa Rosada<\/a>, CC BY 2.5 AR)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

These investment projects are part of the political agreements<\/a> reached with China during the previous government. They include financing of US$14 billion under the countries\u2019 Strategic Dialogue for Economic Cooperation and Coordination mechanism, and a second package of US$9.7 billion that Chinese entities would invest following Argentina\u2019s joining of the Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith regard to investments, those originating in agreements between states or public bodies, which include a contribution from the Argentine state, have had difficulties for years and have suffered delays and cancellations due to the lack of local funds,\u201d says the economist Sevares. His outlook for the future is not optimistic: \u201cThe situation will worsen in the immediate future due to the fiscal adjustment programme being carried out by the current government.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Argentina\u2019s new president Milei has called for shake-ups to the country\u2019s foreign policy, including less cosy ties with China. It won\u2019t be so straightforward<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000135,"featured_media":50390357,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[758],"tags":[50040720,600],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020,20000110],"class_list":["post-50390353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-geopolitics","tag-trade","country-argentina","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhere next for Argentina-China relations? | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Argentina\u2019s new president Milei has called for shake-ups to the country\u2019s foreign policy, including less cosy ties with China. 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