{"id":60014772,"date":"2024-04-24T11:59:04","date_gmt":"2024-04-24T10:59:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60014772"},"modified":"2025-01-21T11:25:08","modified_gmt":"2025-01-21T11:25:08","slug":"why-isnt-chinas-emissions-growth-slowing-like-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/why-isnt-chinas-emissions-growth-slowing-like-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Why isn\u2019t China\u2019s emissions growth slowing like its GDP?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">Following the emergence of Covid-19 and its impacts, China put a strong emphasis on coal power and energy-intensive heavy industry to secure energy security and GDP growth. This has put it a long way off reaching its 2025 targets for energy and carbon intensity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How can China ensure these decisions do not make it more difficult to <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/digest\/china-releases-key-documents-on-carbon-peaking-and-neutrality\/\">achieve<\/a> peak carbon emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060? In conversation with Dialogue Earth, experts recommend tougher controls on coal, reforms to electricity markets, and more rigorous management of energy supply and demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-accordion block--accordion\"><span class=\"block--accordion__title\">What is energy intensity?<\/span><div class=\"block--accordion__content\"><div class=\"block--accordion__content__inner\">\n<p>The amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Energy intensity indicates the strength of the link between a country\u2019s economic development and energy consumption. That is, how much energy is needed to produce a certain amount of value. The higher it is, the more reliant the country will be on energy for growth.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mission-almost-impossible\">Mission almost-impossible<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s five-year economic plan (FYP) for 2021-2025 set 20 binding targets, including a 13.5% fall in energy intensity and an 18% fall in carbon intensity (carbon emitted per unit of GDP). Meeting these would have required annual falls of 2.8% and 3.9% respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In late 2023, the chair of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zheng Zhajie, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndrc.gov.cn\/fzggw\/wld\/zsj\/zyhd\/202312\/t20231227_1362958.html\">said<\/a> falls in both energy and carbon intensity had been less than expected. According to a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202402\/t20240228_1947915.html\">bulletin<\/a> from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), energy intensity fell only 2.5% in 2023, while carbon intensity held steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Energy intensity fell by 2.7% in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.cn\/xinwen\/2022-02\/28\/content_5676015.htm\">2021<\/a>, and carbon intensity by 3.8%, according to Dialogue Earth\u2019s calculations. Falls in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202302\/t20230228_1919011.html\">2022<\/a>, though, were only 0.1% and 0.8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"83917\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Zheng Zhajie did not give specific figures in his speech. However, Dialogue Earth\u2019s calculations using the NBS bulletin show cumulative falls since 2020 of 3.3% in energy intensity and 4.6% in carbon intensity. Meeting its 2025 targets will therefore now require China to achieve two annual falls of 10.5% in energy intensity and 14% in carbon intensity, from 2023 levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not possible to have carbon intensity and energy intensity fall that far in two years,\u201d says Dr Yang Fuqiang, a research fellow at Peking University\u2019s Institute of Energy. \u201cThere is no doubt the targets will be missed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recently published \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/lianghui.people.com.cn\/2024\/n1\/2024\/0306\/c458561-40189768.html\">2024 Government Work Report<\/a>\u201d has set a target for reducing energy intensity by 2.5% this year. \u201cWe\u2019re too far behind to get back on track overnight easily, so a 2.5% target for the year was set,\u201d Yang tells Dialogue Earth. \u201cAll we can do is try to get back on track in the time remaining.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-problem-security-trumping-efficiency\">The problem: Security trumping efficiency<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Professor Zhou Dadi, a member of the National Climate Change Expert Committee, said in an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yicai.com\/news\/101968187.html\">interview<\/a> with Yicai.com that the disappointing progress was for two reasons: energy intensity has been pushed up by a combination of slowing economic growth and sustained growth in energy demand; while carbon intensity has been driven up by growth in coal consumption, which accounts for about 60% of national carbon emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The statistics for 2023 show a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202402\/t20240228_1947915.html\">5.7%<\/a> increase in year-on-year total energy consumption, while GDP grew by only 5.2%. This bucks a years-long trend in China of GDP growth being higher than energy consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAlthough the Covid-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the service sector, which slowed GDP growth, demand for energy, particularly related to life activities, has continued to grow more quickly, meaning less-than-ideal reductions in both energy and carbon intensity,\u201d Zhou told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yicai.com\/news\/101968187.html\">Yicai.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, coal consumption grew faster than GDP for the second year running. According to our research, this hasn\u2019t happened since 2005.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that year, China had recently joined the World Trade Organisation and every sector of its rapidly growing economy demanded more energy. Coal prices skyrocketed, leading to the \u201ccoal boss\u201d phenomenon: super-rich coal mine owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/17686459\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:520px;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>But in 2024, the Chinese economy is facing a number of downward pressures. So, why is demand for coal on the up?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re in a period of transition, so GDP growth is slow,\u201d says Yang. \u201cInternational experience shows that when GDP growth slows, energy consumption should follow suit. Yet we\u2019re seeing energy consumption grow faster than GDP. There are a lot of issues behind this, but a very important one is a failure to pay enough attention to energy efficiency.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The electricity sector was responsible for over 80% of 2023\u2019s coal-consumption growth (which is equivalent to about 100 million tonnes of coal), according to an <a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/GWSNRfLBO_tce6INE613og\">analysis<\/a> by the Climate Change and Energy Transition Program at Peking University\u2019s Institute of Energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yang thinks the \u201coddities\u201d in coal consumption during the past two years are down to the government prioritising supply demands over energy-efficiency improvements:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#f5f6f5\">\u201cIn the past three years, electricity shortages in the north-east of China, the Sichuan drought and the instabilities in the energy market caused by the war in Ukraine have all made the government put security of supply first. Also, it was necessary to ensure supply could keep up with returning demand during the recovery from the pandemic. So, with coal being cheap and pricing mechanisms still preventing electricity prices from rising, China burned a lot of coal to generate the power needed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When electricity is cheap, businesses and individuals don\u2019t see any need to limit their usage. \u201cEnergy prices are kept very low, and supply is guaranteed,\u201d adds Yang. \u201cThe financial benefits of saving energy are limited and there\u2019s little motivation for anyone, business or individual, to make an effort.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yang underlines that these energy- and carbon-intensity targets are binding, however. This means failure to meet them will be taken seriously by central government and the relevant ministries, with investigations and remedial measures certain to follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2024 Government Work Report has therefore introduced a resource-consumption strategy. It will push for a faster roll-out of energy- and water-saving measures in key sectors, and the development and use of advanced, energy-saving and carbon-reduction tech to create green- and low-carbon supply chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-peaking-early\">Peaking early?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>An important qualification was added to the energy-intensity figure reported in the recent National Bureau of Statistics bulletin: it now <em>excludes<\/em> energy from non-fossil-fuel sources and from the petrochemicals sector. This is significant for two reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Firstly, it lowers the energy-intensity figure, as <a href=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue.net\/en\/energy\/how-china-completely-redefined-a-key-energy-target\/\">Dialogue Earth has explored<\/a>. This explains the apparent contradiction in the 2023 figures \u2013 that energy consumption is growing faster than GDP, yet energy intensity is falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Secondly, the exclusion is an adaptation to China\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.news.cn\/energy\/20230714\/1907af1248bd4f769c715b0eb42d4e15\/c.html\">shift<\/a> in focus from controlling energy consumption to controlling carbon emissions. It is intended to grant more freedom for the growth of renewable energy, as this accounts for an increasing proportion of China\u2019s energy consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2023, coal accounted for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202402\/t20240228_1947915.html\">55.3%<\/a> of all energy consumed in China. That figure is dropping annually however, because the proliferation of clean generation is expanding the country\u2019s total energy pie. Wind and solar have seen huge growth in the past five years, with their share of the energy mix increasing from 23.3% in 2019 to 26.4% last year \u2013 a trend that can be expected to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nea.gov.cn\/2024-02\/23\/c_1310765179.htm\">continue<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"120259\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Yang believes the \u201cunusually fast\u201d growth in coal production and use over the past two years may actually bring about an <em>earlier<\/em> carbon peak. While it is not central government policy to ban coal, the government has imposed a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/news.cctv.com\/2023\/12\/07\/ARTI5j8uPTZp7Wao7t5jeCg0231207.shtml\">strict and reasonable<\/a>\u201d cap on coal consumption. The coal power boom of the past two years may have been an excessive exercise in ensuring a \u201creasonable\u201d supply, but the central government will now be \u201cstrict\u201d regarding any further expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#f5f6f5\">\u201cThere will be significant drops in additional coal-power capacity from now on and there\u2019s a strong probability China will hit its 2030 peak-carbon target early, in the next two or three years. The energy-consumption plan China is drafting ensures economic growth, and while specific energy-intensive industries like coal chemicals and petrochemicals are still growing, output of most other energy-intensive industries has already peaked.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Yang also notes that, as there\u2019s no hard number for \u201cpeak carbon\u201d, there is a risk this peak will be higher and last longer. This will make the pre-2060 target of carbon neutrality harder to achieve. To avoid this, he adds, China needs tougher measures to control coal, as well as reforms to, and better supply-and-demand management of, its energy markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Correction notice: The original version of this article stated that China had committed to peaking its carbon emissions by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. On 21 January 2025, this was corrected to\u00a0<\/em>before<em>\u00a02030 and\u00a0<\/em>before<em>\u00a02060.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite slowing GDP growth, coal consumption is on the up, largely due to a failure to improve energy efficiency<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3738,"featured_media":60014856,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[513,520,50041599],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000110],"class_list":["post-60014772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-coal","tag-energy-consumption","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why isn\u2019t China\u2019s emissions growth 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