{"id":60020769,"date":"2024-05-28T15:25:13","date_gmt":"2024-05-28T14:25:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60020769"},"modified":"2024-06-04T13:09:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-04T12:09:00","slug":"why-energy-is-a-key-issue-in-mexicos-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/why-energy-is-a-key-issue-in-mexicos-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Why energy is a key issue in Mexico\u2019s elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As Mexico heads towards its presidential elections this Sunday, 2 June, the future of its energy transition is at stake. Leading candidate Claudia Sheinbaum and her closest competitor, X\u00f3chitl G\u00e1lvez, have both acknowledged the oil-dependent country\u2019s need for an energy transition, but are proposing different paths towards that goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy has been a hot topic during the six-year term of outgoing president Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, widely known as AMLO, and also featured regularly in the candidates\u2019 debates and speeches on the campaign trail. As election day nears, Dialogue Earth looks at their proposals on energy, and the key issues shaping the future of the sector in Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claudia Sheinbaum: the energy contradiction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, running as the candidate for AMLO\u2019s left-wing Morena party, has maintained a substantial lead in the polls<\/a> ever since confirming her candidacy last September. The most recent surveys<\/a> of voters\u2019 preferences and awareness of candidates indicate that she holds a considerable advantage over her opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sheinbaum is broadly offering continuity with the energy policies promoted by her predecessor, who has prioritised fossil fuels and the strengthening of the state-owned Federal Electricity Commission<\/a> (CFE) and Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex) in the name of energy sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Claudia<\/div>
Claudia Sheinbaum and current president Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, in September 2021. She has signalled more ambition on clean energy than the incumbent, but may also uphold many of his pro-fossil fuel policies. (Image: Raj Valley \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

However, Sheinbaum \u2013 an environmental scientist and former contributor to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change \u2013 has made stronger signals than AMLO for the need to promote Mexico\u2019s gradual shift from fossil fuels towards cleaner energy sources such as wind and solar power. These include mentions of distributed generation<\/a>, the smaller-scale energy production through renewable projects and clean technology in households and communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Improvements in energy efficiency are another key aspect of her proposed programme, including the promotion of investments in the country\u2019s electrical transmission and distribution networks. During her time as Mexico City mayor (2018\u20132023), Sheinbaum won praise for her record<\/a> on green initiatives, including overseeing the increasing electrification<\/a> of the city\u2019s buses, supporting the installation of solar panels in central markets, and attempting to curb plastic use<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/div>
A Chinese-made Yutong electric bus on the streets of Mexico City. As the city\u2019s mayor, Claudia Sheinbaum was recognised for promoting various green initiatives, including overseeing the increased electrification of the public bus fleet. (Image: Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur goal is to advance the energy transition at a faster pace,\u201d Sheinbaum told a 6 May meeting of regional councillors from the Spanish private bank BBVA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She has pledged<\/a> USD 13.6 billion of investment in renewable energy to 2030, aiming to add more than 13 gigawatts of generation capacity to the grid. But this may still be insufficient to meet the country\u2019s growing energy demands, with some business figures estimating that as much as USD 3 billion<\/a> a year is needed to support the sector, and calling for increased foreign investment. A national electricity reform in 2013, by comparison, helped<\/a> to add around 8 GW of new capacity by 2019, and the country has since announced<\/a> intentions to more than double renewable generation capacity, in order to meet emissions reduction targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sheinbaum\u2019s 308-page manifesto<\/a> cites \u201cenergy transition\u201d 18 times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But days after her appearance before the bank officials, some of the contradictions and political compromises of the poll-leader\u2019s energy proposals were made clear. On 15 May, during a tour of the state of Nayarit, she mentioned a long-term plan for Pemex, which foresees \u201cthe exploitation of hydrocarbons and refining, processing, petrochemicals, and a vision where Pemex also enters into renewable energies and cogeneration.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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During her pre-political career as an academic, while she was a researcher in the institute of engineering at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Sheinbaum put forward a much more critical view of fossil fuels. In a 2008 essay<\/a> on energy alternatives for Mexico, the now-candidate questioned the increase in oil exploitation as a sign of \u201cirrational use of the resource\u201d and expressed concerns over its \u201cgreater environmental impacts\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, in the game of politics, Sheinbaum has been widely seen by analysts<\/a> as moulding her discourse to follow the line of her mentor, AMLO, in privileging the role of Pemex and CFE and, by extension, favouring the consumption of fossil fuels. She has, however, signalled more openness than her predecessor to the participation of private companies in Mexico\u2019s energy sector, including in meetings<\/a> with international business groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xochitl G\u00e1lvez: a return for the private sector<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sheinbaum\u2019s closest opponent is X\u00f3chitl G\u00e1lvez, a former senator, computer engineer and businesswoman, running as the nominee for the broad Strength and Heart for Mexico coalition. The focus of her energy proposals<\/a> has been the reopening of the sector to private investment, returning to the conditions of the 2013 energy reform, which AMLO abandoned<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this sense, she has proposed launching auctions for renewable energy projects, as well as the tendering of oil exploration blocks. In parallel, she has called for the closure of six loss-making Pemex refineries, and for the state company to participate in the generation of hydrogen and other energies with private firms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Xochitl<\/div>
X\u00f3chitl G\u00e1lvez (centre) celebrates after being confirmed as a presidential candidate in January. A member of the National Action Party, she will front Strength and Heart for Mexico, a broad coalition of three parties. (Image: Luis Barron \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The candidate\u2019s coalition brings together the conservative National Action party, the centre-left Democratic Revolution, and the Institutional Revolutionary Party that dominated 20th-century Mexican politics. Some of her key energy proposals include a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, the promotion of electric public transport and the installation of home solar panels. She has also suggested the deployment of fossil gas in the south-east of the country, with the region facing challenges<\/a> in meeting residential and industrial demand, as well as transmission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her proposal document<\/a> contains 14 mentions of the energy transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe world is not going to wait to see whether or not Mexico wants to enter the energy transition. We\u2019d better get on this train,\u201d G\u00e1lvez said during a tour of the state of Yucat\u00e1n in March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is no better sovereignty than not relying on fossil fuels, relying on wind, solar energy, but it is also clear to me that we have to make a just<\/em> transition,\u201d she said. \u201cWe cannot say overnight that fossil fuels will no longer be used, that is false, because oil is something very valuable,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AMLO focus on energy sovereignty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the energy policies pursued by the AMLO government since 2018 is key to understanding the current candidates\u2019 proposals. His government has made energy sovereignty one of its flagship initiatives, aiming for the country to meet its needs through domestic production. Support for fossil fuels has been privileged under this approach, with the country\u2019s energy transition stalling<\/a> during his tenure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

78%<\/p>

In 2023, 78% of Mexico\u2019s electricity generation depended<\/a> on fossil fuels, followed by wind and hydropower (both 5.9% each), solar (5.2%) and nuclear (3.4%).<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Mexico will miss the target set in 2014 for clean sources to have a 35% share<\/a> of generation by 2024; its target for 2035 is 40%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although government support has helped to stabilise Mexico\u2019s oil extraction, it has not been the salvation that Pemex may have imagined: the USD 90 billion transferred during the AMLO government in various types of support, such as tax reductions and subsidies, have not resulted in better financial results for the struggling company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Mexico continues to rely<\/a> on the United States for electricity generation and gas imports, burned in combined cycle power plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Mexican government is also encumbered by the construction of the Olmeca refinery, better known as Dos Bocas, in the south-eastern state of Tabasco, some 760 kilometres from Mexico City. Construction began in 2019 and it was scheduled to begin operating in 2022, though the estimated cost<\/a> has now jumped from an initial USD 8 billion to at least USD 17 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dos Bocas has been pitched<\/a> by the AMLO government as the basis for fuel sovereignty, as it will theoretically refine some 340,000 barrels of crude per year, producing 170,000 barrels of gasoline and 120,000 barrels of diesel. G\u00e1lvez has described<\/a> the troubled refinery as a \u201cmonument to corruption\u201d and said she would pledge support and investments to finish the project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mexico among Latin America\u2019s worst polluters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another result of the AMLO government\u2019s policies has been an increase in Pemex\u2019s emissions. These grew<\/a> from 48 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2019 to 60 million tonnes in 2023, according to Pemex reports<\/a> sent to the Securities and Exchange Commission, the US stock market regulator, as a requirement for the company to sell bonds there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The energy sector is the third largest<\/a> source of methane emissions in the country, releasing 1.34 million tonnes into the atmosphere in 2023, to which Pemex is the largest contributor. However, several studies have highlighted that the true scale of this pollution<\/a> could be higher, due to shortcomings in measuring processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As part of the Global Methane Pledge<\/a> launched at the COP26 climate conference in 2021, Mexico has committed to reducing its emissions by 2030. Current policies put it on a path towards achieving only minor cuts in methane emissions, with the International Energy Agency<\/a> projecting 1.2 million tonnes a year by 2030, and describing the country\u2019s progress as \u201cmoderate\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mexico ranks as the second largest polluter in Latin America, after Brazil, and is among the 12 largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the world. Pemex is among the 15 most polluting companies<\/a> in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These energy figures underline the urgency of the decisions facing the election candidates both at the national level, and in relation to the state-owned companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ram\u00f3n Torres, a UNAM researcher in energy and development studies, proposes that, for its own future, Pemex and CFE should support the development of offshore wind energy, battery storage, hydrogen generation, and the promotion of distributed generation and mass electrification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The transition needs willpower: the goals have been there, they are ambitious, but it doesn\u2019t happen<\/blockquote>Anaid Velasco, Mexico Resiliente<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor years, we exploited the cow, now let\u2019s dedicate the cow to something else if it no longer works,\u201d Torres says. \u201cWe have to enter the new energy world.\u201d CFE and Pemex, he adds, should \u201cturn to the new technological frontier. They should be the tools for the energy offer of the future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For environmental lawyer Anaid Velasco of Mexico Resiliente<\/a>, a coalition of sustainability organisations, it will be necessary for the next president to set out clear rules for the country\u2019s energy transition, without setting obstacles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe transition needs willpower,\u201d she says. \u201cThe goals have been there, they are ambitious, but it doesn\u2019t happen. In a presidential system, things happen if the incumbent wants them to happen. If there is a legal system that allows participation from various sectors, incentives can be put in place to make it happen. Transition happens at various scales, from panels in houses to the industrial level.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mexico\u2019s presidential election takes place on 2 June. Claudia Sheinbaum continues to lead<\/a> the race, polling at around 60% of voting intention, far ahead of X\u00f3chitl G\u00e1lvez and centre-left candidate Jorge \u00c1lvarez M\u00e1ynez, who are polling at roughly a third and a tenth of votes, respectively. The Morena candidate is widely expected to emerge as the winner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Leading candidates have both pledged to boost renewables, with debates also focusing on state energy firms and the fossil fuel legacy of outgoing president AMLO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3478,"featured_media":60020789,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[50029993,585],"hashtags":[],"country":[50002597],"class_list":["post-60020769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-elections","tag-renewables","country-mexico"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy energy is a key issue in Mexico\u2019s elections | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Leading candidates have both pledged to boost renewables, with debates also focusing on state energy firms and the fossil fuel legacy of outgoing president AMLO\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM speaking and celebrating her victory in the MORENA party's internal polls. (Credit Image: \u00a9 Luis E Salgado\/ZUMA Press Wire) EDITORIAL USAGE ONLY! 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