{"id":60049728,"date":"2024-09-09T15:33:54","date_gmt":"2024-09-09T14:33:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60049728"},"modified":"2024-10-03T08:10:33","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T07:10:33","slug":"how-are-the-eus-coal-giants-decarbonising","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/how-are-the-eus-coal-giants-decarbonising\/","title":{"rendered":"How are the EU\u2019s coal giants decarbonising?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the EU, coal consumption rebounded<\/a> in 2021 and 2022 as the economy recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic and an energy crisis escalated by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine  prompted some countries to fire up coal power plants. In China, the media<\/a> and public began to question Europe\u2019s climate commitments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But gas and coal use across the EU fell significantly in the second half of 2022, a Dialogue Earth analysis<\/a> showed. Coal burning continued to decline in 2023, with coal-power generation hitting new lows, dropping 26% in a year to account for only 12% of the bloc\u2019s electricity mix, according to energy think-tank Ember<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU has long been a leader in global climate governance. Its European Green Deal<\/a>, published in late 2019, aimed to bring about \u201cclimate neutrality\u201d by 2050, meaning net zero emissions of all greenhouse gases, not just CO2. In February of this year, the European Commission set an intermediate goal on that pathway \u2013 to reduce emissions by at least 90%<\/a> by 2040, against a 1990 baseline. This would mean coal being \u201calmost completely phased out\u201d by 2040, according to an impact assessment report<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pieter de Pous, who leads the Coal to Clean Programme at UK-based think-tank E3G, said Germany and Poland\u2019s continued efforts are particularly important when it comes to the EU targets because despite falls in coal power generation in both countries in 2023, the two still account for 71%<\/a> of the bloc\u2019s coal generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts interviewed by Dialogue Earth believe Europe\u2019s two largest coal consumers are accelerating the deployment of renewables to reduce their reliance on coal, but still face challenges around economic development and ensuring a just transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could Germany phase out coal by 2030 rather than 2038?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Germany\u2019s carbon emissions have been in general decline<\/a> since 1979. Last year, they reached their lowest levels since the 1950s, with coal-power generation dropping by a quarter compared to 2022, from 180 gigawatts to 135 gigawatts<\/a>, and coal\u2019s share of the energy mix down to 26.8%, Ember found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January 2020, Germany passed a law<\/a> requiring coal-fired power stations to be completely phased out by 2038, and published a detailed timetable. The government also committed to ending nuclear-power generation within two years, leading to concerns<\/a> over power shortages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the 2022 energy crisis led to shortages of natural gas, the shutdown of the last three nuclear power plants had to be delayed<\/a>; they were finally wound down<\/a> in April last year. But fears that coal generation would pick up the slack proved unfounded<\/a>, with fossil-fuel generation falling at the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So Germany was able to cut coal generation while shutting down nuclear power and weathering natural gas shortages. This achievement was, at least in part, thanks to a rapid expansion of renewables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reforms<\/a> designed to speed up the energy transition were announced in 2022. These included faster planning and approvals processes for renewables, and a requirement for 2% of all land to be reserved for wind power by 2032.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In 2023, Germany for the first time generated more than half of its power from renewable sources (excluding nuclear), Ember data<\/a> shows. Last year also saw wind power overtake coal as the country\u2019s largest single source of power, at 27.2% of the mix. The data also shows that together, wind and solar power accounted for 39% of all power generated, three times the global average of 13%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a fall in electricity demand from industry, which saw reduced output last year, also helped cut emissions. Some are therefore worried about the relationship between economic performance and emissions. Agora Energiewende, a German think-tank, calculated<\/a> that only 15% of Germany\u2019s 2023 carbon cuts were permanent in nature, that is, achieved by adding new renewable energy, boosting energy efficiency or switching to lower-carbon fuels. Half of the cuts came from falling power demand and other short-term impacts; Reuters has reported<\/a> a 5.3% drop in load on public power networks in 2023, reflecting that drop in demand. Germany\u2019s economic slowdown has a range of causes<\/a> including the war in Ukraine, high interests rates and deficits in skilled labour. When the expected recovery from these issues occurs, some emissions reductions gains are likely to be lost, Agora warns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De Pous says the German government has set ambitious targets related to renewables, such as for at least 15 million electric vehicles<\/a> to be on the roads by 2030. The associated growth in power demand has been factored into planning for renewable-energy construction, he adds. The question is, can Germany keep on expanding renewables to meet post-coal power demand?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government seems confident. In fact, action at the state level indicates that the coal power shutdown may indeed come earlier. In late 2022, North Rhine-Westphalia \u2013 a centre for coal mining and heavy industry in the west of Germany \u2013 announced<\/a> that coal generation would be phased out by 2030. States in the east of the country are making similar noises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOf course, Germany still has a lot of work to do,\u201d said de Pous. \u201cAs in most countries rolling out renewable energy, the big task is construction and digitalisation of the power grid. Alongside that, Germany is also developing flexible energy tech, such as hydrogen power<\/a>. I\u2019m cautiously optimistic that Germany is on the right track with its energy transition. If the government\u2019s renewable-energy plans come to fruition, a 2030 coal phase-out is feasible.\u201d<\/ins><\/p>\n\n\n\n