{"id":60053272,"date":"2024-10-04T12:06:49","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T11:06:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60053272"},"modified":"2024-10-10T12:32:55","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T11:32:55","slug":"brazil-edges-closer-to-chinas-belt-and-road-why-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazil-edges-closer-to-chinas-belt-and-road-why-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil edges closer to China\u2019s Belt and Road. Why now?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative enters its second decade<\/a>, the country appears on the verge of persuading Brazil to make the significant decision to finally sign up to its flagship overseas investment programme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent statements by Brazilian President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva have heightened speculation<\/a> that the country will join the vast infrastructure initiative. So, what has changed, and what would this mean for Brazil, China, and the region\u2019s politics and economics?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Launched in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative<\/a> (BRI) has been championed by Chinese leader Xi Jinping as a scheme to create modern trade routes that echo the historic Silk Road. Having greatly expanded the international presence of Chinese companies and finance, the BRI has been seen as a strategic endeavour to increase China\u2019s global influence, while officials have sought to cultivate a narrative of enhancing economic, political and cultural ties among its members.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally intended to link Asia and Europe through Africa and the Middle East, the initiative expanded to Latin America in 2017. China has invested in nearly 150 countries, including 22 in Latin America and the Caribbean<\/a>, with total commitments passing the USD 1 trillion mark in the first half of 2023. These investments have primarily taken the form of loans and contracts for major infrastructure projects, such as power plants, roads, airports, seaports and dams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following a period of hesitance under presidents Michel Temer (2016-2018) and Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022), Brazil \u2013 with its abundant resources and important position within South America \u2013 has once again come to the fore in discussions of the BRI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil views itself in many ways as like China \u2013 an emerging power<\/blockquote>Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBrazil has understood for a very long time that it\u2019s a key partner for China in Latin America, regardless of its decision to join the Belt and Road Initiative,\u201d says Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue. \u201cIt\u2019s been a top destination, if not the top destination, for Chinese investors. This is unlikely to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt the same time, Brazil views itself in many ways as like China \u2013 an emerging power,\u201d she adds. \u201cI don\u2019t know if joining the BRI would have, in some form, diminished Brazil\u2019s own views of its interests in the region and globally, but that\u2019s potentially one consideration.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lula\u2019s return a key factor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While Brazilian diplomats have remained sceptical of the benefits of BRI membership, speculation that Brazil might sign a memorandum to join the initiative has steadily grown since Lula returned as president at the start of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent visits to China by Lula<\/a> and his vice president<\/a>, Geraldo Alckmin, took place without any announcement on the Belt and Road. However, during an event in July, Lula did suggest<\/a> Brazil might join: \u201cAs China is interested in discussing the Silk Road, we need to prepare a proposal to discuss what\u2019s in it for us,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat advantages does Brazil stand to gain from participating? What significant role will Brazil play?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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With Xi set to make a state visit to Brazil for the G20 conference in Rio de Janeiro in November, and the two presidents also meeting that month at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru, Chinese officials are keen to seal the deal during the 50th year of Brazil-China relations<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is a different perspective between the president\u2019s inner circle and the foreign ministry,\u201d says Pablo Iba\u00f1ez, geopolitics professor at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro. \u201cLula knows the value of growing relationships with the Global South and prefers to foster relations outside of the axis of the United States and Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iba\u00f1ez says the foreign ministry \u201cis very concerned about the implications\u201d, however. He adds: \u201cWhat can we gain from it? Could it bring reprisals from the United States? The Belt and Road is another stage in the expansion of Chinese global power. It is enormous, and it is fundamental to the Chinese government.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Two<\/div>
President Lula hosts a meeting with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi at the Fortaleza air base in Brazil\u2019s north-east. Experts say Brazil is hoping to boost cooperation between the two nations in areas beyond commodity exports, the key driver in cementing China\u2019s position as its top trading partner for the last 15 years (Image: Ricardo Stuckert<\/a> \/ Pal\u00e1cio do Planalto<\/a>, CC BY-ND<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

According to experts interviewed by Dialogue Earth, Brazil is carefully weighing the potential benefits of joining in an attempt to extract maximum leverage from China\u2019s negotiators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA few years ago, I believe Brazil did not have a clear understanding of the strategic reasons for joining the BRI,\u201d says Jo\u00e3o Cumar\u00fa, a researcher at Plataforma CIP\u00d3, a climate and foreign affairs NGO. \u201cNow, however, some members of Lula\u2019s government are beginning to think strategically about what Brazil should ask for in return for its involvement.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The specifics are uncertain, but specialists say Brazil is likely looking for support that goes beyond the export of commodities to China and the import of finished goods in return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has been Brazil\u2019s largest trading partner since 2009, with bilateral trade between the nations reaching USD 80 billion in the first half of 2024, according to Brazilian foreign trade data. But around 80% of Brazil\u2019s exports to China consist of just three items: petroleum, iron ore, and soybeans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n