{"id":60054263,"date":"2024-10-11T16:02:09","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T15:02:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60054263"},"modified":"2024-10-23T14:08:46","modified_gmt":"2024-10-23T13:08:46","slug":"can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Latin America deliver on its energy transition promises by 2030?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Latin America is the only region other than China that is ahead of its 2030 target for increasing renewable energy capacity, according to the International Energy Agency<\/a> (IEA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, the IEA believes the region\u2019s untapped potential for hydropower, solar and wind energy means the collective ambition to triple<\/a> global renewable capacity by 2030, agreed at last year\u2019s COP28 climate summit, could be higher. This is something countries will have a chance to review in their updated plans for tackling climate change, which are due for submission to the United Nations early next year. But what do we already know?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On electricity, Latin America is and has long been one of the greenest regions in the world. Last year alone, 62% of the region\u2019s electricity was generated from renewables, according to data<\/a> from climate thinktank Ember. Hydropower alone accounts for 45%<\/a> of electricity supply in the region, and has been the bedrock of electricity generation for decades in several countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are also reportedly more than 8,000 renewable energy projects<\/a> \u2013 including hydrogen \u2013 in their early stages across the region, requiring a total investment of USD 232.8 billion, and more than 700 projects, totalling USD 20.8 billion, under construction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fossil fuels do still make up two-thirds<\/a> of the region\u2019s energy mix \u2013 and dominate within transport and industry \u2013 but this remains some way below the global average of 80%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking to Dialogue Earth, Andr\u00e9s Rebolledo, executive secretary of the Latin American Energy Organisation (Olade), said that there are around 500 gigawatts (GW) of installed renewable capacity across Latin America today, and he anticipates an additional 1,000 GW by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rebolledo also pointed out that most of the \u201cnew energies\u201d installed, and those planned, come from wind and solar power \u2013 not hydropower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The success of the renewable energy sector represents a respite for the region in terms of its international commitments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a sharper analysis shows two challenges. Sources consulted by Dialogue Earth argued, first, that there is a marked disparity between Latin American countries in terms of renewables development, and second, that increasing renewables does not yet necessarily translate into leaving fossil fuels behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Latin America, the world and China<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Chile and Brazil are leading the way in Latin America\u2019s efforts to boost renewable energy, ranking second and fourth globally in the recently released 2024 Renewable Energy Tracker<\/a> from Climate Action Network. The tracker reviews the performance of 62 countries in seven categories, such as investment in renewables, jobs in the sector and planned additions. Other Latin American countries follow further behind in the ranking, such as Argentina (21st), Mexico (23rd) and Uruguay (27th). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"tractor<\/div>
A tractor waits beside the Aurora Wind Farm in Llanquihue, Chilean Patagonia. Experts describe renewable energy policy in Chile as being consistent across different governments and parties (Image: Tamara Merino<\/a> \/ International Money Fund<\/a>, CC BY NC ND<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

These disparities mean the region collectively is taking slow but progressive steps towards some kind of transition. Rebolledo points out that their roadmaps are also subject to change, shaped by different political, economic and technological factors in both the international and national spheres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Argentine sociologist and energy transition specialist Esteban Serrani said the fact the transition has become a \u201cmainstream\u201d development model is playing an important role. \u201cEurope is also conditioning credits with a \u2018green\u2019 orientation. There is a business climate that, in general, is going green,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Serrani, since the gas crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine, Europe has been seeking to accelerate the transition, \u201cnot exclusively for ecological awareness, but for autonomy and security\u201d. This is why, he says, they include gas as a so-called \u201cbridge fuel\u201d in their concept of transition \u2013 a hotly contested definition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Europe is not the only power promoting these changes. China \u2013 home to the world\u2019s largest renewable energy capacity, and the dominant force in solar and wind technology \u2013 aspires<\/a> to be the great driver of the world\u2019s energy transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Latin America, China has established itself as a key supplier of manufactured technology, an importer and partner in the production of raw materials needed for the energy transition, and even a manager of electricity companies, as in the recent case of Enel<\/a> in Peru, which was acquired by the country\u2019s State Grid Corporation, and Pontoon in Brazil, which was bought by PowerChina<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solar and wind power development<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With the significant drop<\/a> in prices of renewables, several Latin American countries have been able to accelerate their development of wind and solar energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sources consulted by Dialogue Earth say they see the need to focus on how these external investments can benefit the region, allowing the countries to add value domestically instead of importing all the elements needed for renewable projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

Serrani suggested that Latin American countries must address the energy \u201ctrilemma\u201d. This is a concept<\/a> that he and other experts in the region define as three variables that shape energy transition decisions: energy security, equity and sustainability. According to a recent report<\/a> by the World Economic Forum that scores 120 countries using these metrics, Latin America\u2019s score has grown less than any other region in the last decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia and Venezuela, the energy transition has left much to be desired, says Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, the WWF\u2019s global climate and energy chief and former Peruvian environment minister. This is because these countries remain heavily dependent on oil, gas and even coal for both consumption and export. Fossil fuels account for an average of 85% of the energy matrix in the four countries, analysis of IEA data by Dialogue Earth shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a region that collectively creates 10% of global emissions<\/a>, Pulgar-Vidal believes there is lower ambition in Latin America on the transition, making the process slower. \u201cThese governments also face systems of concessions and contracting under stability rules that limit them from taking on new challenges,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"An<\/div>
Flaring at a thermal power plant next to a vineyard in Mendoza, western Argentina. The country\u2019s oil and gas sectors may be set to benefit from tax and customs exemptions put forward by the national government (Image: Jose Luis Stephens \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In the case of Mexico, Omar Masera Cerutti, a researcher in bioenergy resources and climate change at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, argued that the country went from being one of the most important oil exporters in the 1980s to importing<\/a> about half of its refined fuels. The country reached its peak oil production in 2004 and gas production in 2009, after which production has steadily decreased, he noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, the previous government focused its energy policy almost exclusively on hydrocarbon production and stopped<\/a> energy transition policies. \u201cEspecially when we suffer from 40% energy poverty<\/a>, it is more difficult for oil-producing countries like this one to make a transition,\u201d said Masera.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite these limits, Masera is confident that the new administration, headed by President Claudia Sheinbaum, will focus on the energy transition. \u201cIn the future, the focus will not be on hydrocarbon development, but first on energy efficiency and then on promoting renewables, especially in the electricity sector,\u201d he added. Sources close to the new government told Dialogue Earth that 80% of the new projects proposed to the country\u2019s Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) will be renewable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colombia, one of the countries with the greatest political ambition<\/a> in terms of energy transition in the region, has also been unable to stop coal production, said Giovanni Pab\u00f3n Restrepo, director of energy at the NGO Transforma Global. \u201cIt makes up 50% of exports and is a generator of foreign exchange,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Gustavo<\/div>
Colombian president Gustavo Petro at the inauguration of the La Uni\u00f3n solar power plant in Monter\u00eda, in the Caribbean region, in September. Although Petro has shown great ambition on the energy transition during his term in office, Colombia still depends on fossil fuels for export revenue (Image: Andrea Puentes<\/a> \/ Presidencia de Colombia<\/a>, PDM<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Something similar is happening in Argentina<\/a>, where different administrations have seen Vaca Muerta, a vast oil and gas field in northern Patagonia, as the answer to the country\u2019s economic crisis and a way to reduce energy imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pab\u00f3n Restrepo notes that countries that have been more progressive with renewables have gone through an energy crisis at one point or another in their history. Such is the case of Brazil, Chile and Uruguay, which have brought in policies to diversify their electricity, including solar and wind energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil\u2019s electricity is mainly supplied by hydroelectric sources. But after a historic drought<\/a> between 2000 and 2002, it developed a programme<\/a> of incentives for alternative sources: biofuels from sugarcane and non-conventional renewables. It has also, along with Colombia, begun to pave the way for the development of offshore windmills<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

In the World Economic Forum\u2019s energy transition ranking, Brazil tops the list in the region and ranks 12th in the world. According to official<\/a> data, the country\u2019s electricity system is still dominated by hydroelectric sources, although there has been a growing presence of wind and solar energy since 2010. \u201cIt is now much more expensive to build new hydroelectric plants than to develop wind or solar farms,\u201d said Ricardo Fujii, a specialist with WWF Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It wasn\u2019t just market opportunities that influenced Brazil and other countries in the region to turn to renewables. Olade\u2019s Andr\u00e9s Rebolledo also credits the state\u2019s vision for energy policies. In Chile, he was minister of energy in Michelle Bachelet\u2019s government and was influential in the energy transition that has led the country to be among the most advanced in the region. \u201cThese policies have given continuity and coherence to this process, which has gone through different political cycles [containing] the most diverse positions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2025, all countries in the region will have to submit their new climate plans, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. While ambitions are expected to be higher, it is still uncertain what the scale will be. For Latin America, discussions remain focused not only on increasing renewables, but also on what role and responsibility their countries will assume on the global stage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Solar and wind energy are expanding faster in the region than in other parts of the world, but they are not yet putting the brakes on fossil fuels<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000479,"featured_media":60054277,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761,757],"tags":[17073,585,593,13023],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020,50000021,50000024,20000110],"class_list":["post-60054263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","category-energy","tag-energy-transition","tag-renewables","tag-solar","tag-wind","country-argentina","country-brazil","country-chile","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCan Latin America deliver on its energy transition promises by 2030? | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Solar and wind energy are expanding faster in the region than in other parts of the world, but they are not yet putting the brakes on fossil fuels\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can Latin America deliver on its energy transition promises by 2030?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Solar and wind energy are expanding faster in the region than in other parts of the world, but they are not yet putting the brakes on fossil fuels\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dialogue Earth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-11T15:02:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-23T13:08:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Children-playing-in-Tourinhos-Beach_Pulsar-Imagens_Alamy_FK8TCN-1200px-copy.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Matias Avramow\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Matias Avramow\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/1da7cdbd79cf657c3ae1c1b9576ce3dd\"},\"headline\":\"Can Latin America deliver on its energy transition promises by 2030?\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-10-11T15:02:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-23T13:08:46+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030\/\"},\"wordCount\":1683,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Children-playing-in-Tourinhos-Beach_Pulsar-Imagens_Alamy_FK8TCN-1200px-copy.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"Energy transition\",\"Renewables\",\"Solar\",\"Wind\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Climate\",\"Energy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/can-latin-america-deliver-on-its-energy-transition-promises-by-2030\/\",\"name\":\"Can Latin America deliver on its energy transition promises by 2030? 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