{"id":60061906,"date":"2024-11-27T17:33:42","date_gmt":"2024-11-27T17:33:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60061906"},"modified":"2024-12-03T09:40:16","modified_gmt":"2024-12-03T09:40:16","slug":"analysis-south-asian-cross-border-energy-trade-ignores-climate-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-south-asian-cross-border-energy-trade-ignores-climate-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: South Asian cross-border energy trade ignores climate risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For the past few years, the countries of Bhutan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal have been slowly working towards cross-border energy trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On 3 October, this cooperation achieved a major milestone. Bangladesh\u2019s new regime signed a tripartite agreement to import <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhakatribune.com\/bangladesh\/foreign-affairs\/360698\/nepal-bangladesh-india-signs-40mw-power\">40<\/a> megawatts (MW) of hydropower from Nepal, via Indian territory. The hydropower potential of Nepal and Bhutan, estimated to be more than <a href=\"https:\/\/web.stanford.edu\/group\/fwolak\/cgi-bin\/sites\/default\/files\/Insight_April14_clean.pdf\">100 gigawatts<\/a> (GW), will strengthen this energy cooperation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts suggest, however, that this scramble for hydropower ignores the impact of climate change upon the Himalayan region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>India had been the lone electricity trading partner for Nepal and Bhutan for decades. This agreement gives the landlocked nations an opportunity to sell their surplus, monsoon-generated hydropower beyond India for the first time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dasho Chhewang Rinzin, the managing director of Druk Green Power Corporation Limited in Bhutan, <a href=\"https:\/\/live.worldbank.org\/en\/event\/2022\/regional-power-trade-towards-green-clean-and-energy-secure-south-asia#accordion-e61b3f7623-item-4af6362d2d\">commented<\/a> on this situation in 2022 at a virtual World Bank event: \u201cMany times, we are questioned about keeping all our eggs [hydropower] in one basket [India], and I retort by saying we have only one egg and one basket.\u201d He said an agreement for regional electricity trade would help Bhutan diversify its basket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For India, the power imported from Nepal and Bhutan has been critical in meeting steep demand spikes during summer months, and maintaining its grid stability. A case in point is northern India\u2019s record power demand of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/sci-tech\/energy-and-environment\/heatwaves-push-power-demand-in-north-india-to-record-high\/article68304190.ece\">89GW<\/a> in a single day, which happened on 17 June as the region suffered its longest heatwave in 15 years. India imported <a href=\"https:\/\/pib.gov.in\/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2026101\">25-30%<\/a> of the power it needed that day, according to the national power ministry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bangladesh recorded its longest ever <a href=\"https:\/\/gasoutlook.com\/analysis\/record-heatwave-in-bangladesh-make-lng-power-generation-surge\/#:~:text=Bangladesh%20generated%20its%20record%20highest%20electricity%20at%2016%2C477%20MW%20on,NLDC)%20of%20the%20state%2Downed\">heatwave<\/a> this year, as well as its highest temperature of the past five decades. On 29 April, the country faced a power shortfall of 3,196MW, but it had no recourse to import electricity from Bhutan or Nepal. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Importing renewable hydropower could additionally assist Bangladesh in weaning itself off fossil fuels. Currently, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/countries\/bangladesh\/electricity\">68%<\/a> of the country\u2019s energy is generated using natural gas, 31% using coal and oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It might also be cheaper. According to Shafiqul Alam, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis\u2019 lead energy analyst for Bangladesh, the average power generation cost in the country soared from USD 0.055 per kilowatt hour in 2020-2021, to USD 0.095 the following year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe often see that the IEX [Indian Energy Exchange] energy market is cheaper than the average power generation cost in Bangladesh,\u201d Alam adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-climate-change-impact-on-hydropower\">Climate change impact on hydropower<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Climate impacts may become a complicating factor in energy trade among Bhutan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/climate-impacts-on-south-and-southeast-asian-hydropower\/executive-summary\">report<\/a> by the International Energy Agency, the Himalayan region (Bhutan and Nepal) projects a drop in hydropower capacity of 3.9-5.2% between 2020 and 2059 \u201cdue to changing climate conditions\u201d. These include \u201cincreasing variability in streamflow, shifting seasonal flows and augmenting evaporation losses from reservoirs\u201d, as well as the impact of \u201cextreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and associated landslides [which] can hinder development of hydropower projects\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of this has already be observed in real time. During this year\u2019s monsoon season, Nepal\u2019s hydropower sector lost out on energy generation worth around <a href=\"https:\/\/risingnepaldaily.com\/news\/49763\">NPR 2.45 billion<\/a> (USD 18 million) due to floods and landslides. About 1,100MW of hydroelectricity production was halted due to flood damage, <a href=\"https:\/\/risingnepaldaily.com\/news\/49763\">says<\/a> Deepak Khadka, Nepal\u2019s minister for energy, water resources and irrigation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The melting of glaciers will also have an impact. In the short term it could temporarily boost water flows, says Arun Bhakta Shrestha, a senior climate change specialist at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. This would lead to higher power generation, especially for hydropower projects in the upstream parts of basins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis also raises the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and flash floods,\u201d adds Shrestha, \u201cwhich can cause physical damage to hydropower infrastructure and disrupt operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHydropower projects in the upstream part of the basins will be more sensitive to [climate] impacts, as meltwater is the dominant source of water there. The seasonal variability caused by changing precipitation patterns and less predictable snowmelt will likely reduce hydropower\u2019s reliability as a consistent energy source.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-building-better-dams\">Building better dams<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dialogue Earth consulted Dhruba Purkayastha, who directs growth and institutional advancement at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, an Indian thinktank. He agrees there are risks: \u201cThis incremental climate risk needs to be subsidised by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD) countries, because without developing hydropower resources in the region, South Asia is likely to continue its carbon-intensive economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One way to way to deal with the issue is engineering, non-engineering and nature-based solutions to make hydropower infrastructure climate-resilient, adds Shreshta. \u201cNewer hydropower projects should incorporate design modifications that account for increased flood risks, including dam design, flood control mechanisms, powerhouse configuration, etc, to withstand extreme weather events.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopaper.com\/news\/hydropower-projects-with-construction-license\/\">228<\/a> hydropower projects of more than 1MW capacity under construction in Nepal as of May 2023; more than <a href=\"https:\/\/kuenselonline.com\/10-hydropower-projects-in-pipeline-to-generate-7600mw\/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%202023%2D24,the%20project%20is%20in%20progress.\">10<\/a> megaprojects are being established in Bhutan. But there is little evidence these are incorporating climate-resilient policies. In fact, Nepal\u2019s hydropower boom has largely ignored environmental issues, such as <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/nepals-hydropower-boom-comes-at-the-cost-of-its-fish\/\">the impact of dams on biodiversity<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"20100348\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Complicating the picture further, there is only a small pool of investors. Neither China nor developed countries are investing in hydropower in Nepal or Bhutan. There are also no existing power transmission lines between Nepal and China, although there are possibilities that this may change as <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaglobalsouth.com\/2024\/02\/13\/the-bri-is-back-on-in-nepal-with-funding-for-hydropower-plant\/\">China and Nepal continue to talk about hydropower trade<\/a>. At the same time, \u201cIndia is pushing out China\u00a0from Nepal\u2019s market,\u201d says Narayani Sritharan, a visiting assistant research professor at the William &amp; Mary Global Research Institute\u2019s lab, AidData.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For developed countries, the rationale is different. Many are actively dismantling ageing hydropower infrastructure, considered counterproductive due to the socioeconomic and environmental <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwaterforum.org\/2024\/06\/06\/what-can-be-done-to-increase-participation-of-communities-in-dam-removal-decisions\/\">impacts<\/a> of dams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe US and western donors are less interested in investing in hydropower development as they are not safe for the environment and local&nbsp;communities,\u201d says Sritharan. \u201cHowever, they are keeping a hawkish eye on the tussle over hydropower between India and China.\u201d<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new deal could boost the economy in Bhutan and Nepal while helping India and Bangladesh \u2013 but it is based on increasingly precarious hydro<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2783,"featured_media":60061960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[519,50041599,600],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000116,20027489,20000111,20000113],"class_list":["post-60061906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-climate-impacts","tag-energy-consumption","tag-trade","country-bangladesh","country-bhutan","country-india","country-nepal"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Analysis: South Asian cross-border energy trade ignores climate risks<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new deal could boost the economy in Bhutan and Nepal while helping India and Bangladesh \u2013 but it is based on increasingly 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new deal could boost the economy in Bhutan and Nepal while helping India and Bangladesh \u2013 but it is based on increasingly precarious hydro","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-south-asian-cross-border-energy-trade-ignores-climate-risks\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-south-asian-cross-border-energy-trade-ignores-climate-risks\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en","@id":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-south-asian-cross-border-energy-trade-ignores-climate-risks\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Gono-Odhikar-Parishad-activists_Alamy_2MXDBKK-2-1-e1732730829583.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Gono-Odhikar-Parishad-activists_Alamy_2MXDBKK-2-1-e1732730829583.jpg","width":1200,"height":800,"caption":"2MXDBKK Dhaka, Bangladesh, February 3, 2023. 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