{"id":60067395,"date":"2025-01-09T15:55:12","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T15:55:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60067395"},"modified":"2025-01-20T06:16:30","modified_gmt":"2025-01-20T06:16:30","slug":"why-chinas-clean-energy-need-not-fear-us-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/why-chinas-clean-energy-need-not-fear-us-tariffs\/","title":{"rendered":"Why China\u2019s clean energy need not fear US tariffs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Clean energy technology, particularly the \u201cnew three\u201d of solar power, batteries and electric vehicles, emerged as an important source of growth<\/a> in China\u2019s exports in 2023. Thanks to booming markets at home and abroad, clean energy has become a key driver of economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lot of media and policymaker attention is focused on possible US and European tariffs on China\u2019s cleantech exports, with the perception that these could be a major blow to the  industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is missing from this picture is that half of all China\u2019s exports of solar and wind power equipment and electric vehicles (EVs) now go to the Global South, according to UN Comtrade data. Emerging and developing countries have driven most of the recent growth in export volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About the data in this article

<\/span><\/i><\/h1><\/span>
\n

This briefing relies on international trade data sourced from UN Comtrade, covering China\u2019s clean energy exports. The analysis includes monthly data between 2015 and 2024, limited to periods with sufficient reporting coverage to ensure completeness and consistency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We followed the IMF definition of developed countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As mainland China and Hong Kong report their international trade separately, we consolidated trans-shipments from the mainland through Hong Kong as exports from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The product categories used in the analysis are as follows. EVs: electric and hybrid motor vehicles, including freight, public transport and tractors (HS codes 870122, 870123, 870124, 870220, 870230, 870240, 870340, 870350, 870360, 870370, 870380, 870441, 870451, 870460). Battery: Lithium-ion accumulators and primary lithium cells (850760, 850650). Solar: PV generators, photovoltaic cells, solar panels, solar-grade silicon and inverters (850171, 850172, 854140, 854142, 854143, 854149, 854150, 850440, 280461, 381800). Wind: Wind-powered electric generators (850231).For some graphs we used the value of imports at constant prices. This approach allows us to separate changes in trade volumes from fluctuations in global prices, providing a clearer picture of China\u2019s clean energy export dynamics. We calculated a price index based on the average price per unit within each product category, using the most commonly available physical measure \u2013 either weight or quantity \u2013 to represent trade volumes. We then smoothed the price index over time using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The index was then applied to export values, converting them into constant 2022 prices.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, the value of EV exports from China to the Global South overtook those to the EU, with China\u2019s exports to developed markets falling and those to developing markets posting strong growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we will see, Global South countries collectively have been the largest importer of solar and wind power equipment from China since at least 2015, but the gap widened in 2023, when the volume of these solar imports from China grew 70% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n