{"id":60075643,"date":"2025-04-04T17:07:34","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T16:07:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60075643"},"modified":"2025-04-10T15:20:26","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T14:20:26","slug":"brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil\u2019s oil exports and exploration cast a shadow on its green ambitions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Last year, oil overtook soy as Brazil\u2019s main export for the first time since 2012. According to trade data published by the government, foreign oil sales totalled almost USD 45 billion in 2024, passing soy\u2019s USD 43 billion. The value of Brazil\u2019s crude oil exports has more than doubled in the past five years, and has close to quadrupled in the past decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China is driving this demand. According to Brazilian government data, China received 44% of Brazil\u2019s crude oil exports in 2024, followed by the US (13%) and Spain (11%). In the past decade, the value exported to the Chinese market has also grown by almost five times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In tonnes, China\u2019s relevance remains significant, though less pronounced. In 2024, it purchased 44% of the oil exported by Brazil. But although China tripled its demand for Brazilian oil over the past decade, its consumption is similar to that of five years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to experts, this trend could become more pronounced in the short term, due to US President Donald Trump\u2019s initiation of a <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/02\/04\/business\/china-us-trade-retaliation-hnk-intl\/index.html\">trade war<\/a> with China. The Asian country retaliated in February by imposing a 10% tariff on oil from the US \u2013 the source of 2% of its oil imports in 2024 \u2013 and may likely increasingly turn to providers such as Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/22298845\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:600px;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil\u2019s growing oil exports are casting a shadow on national climate ambitions, as well as several environmental and clean energy cooperation <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.br\/planalto\/en\/latest-news\/2024\/11\/brazil-and-china-expand-bilateral-relations-during-state-visit-by-president-xi-jinping\">agreements it has penned with China<\/a>. Furthermore, Brazil is preparing to host November\u2019s COP30 climate summit in the Amazonian city of Bel\u00e9m; in March, President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.br\/mma\/pt-br\/noticias\/no-japao-e-vietna-lula-convoca-mutirao-rumo-a-cop30-e-diz-que-descarbonizacao-201cnao-e-escolha-mas-necessidade201d\">said<\/a> the country \u201cis at the forefront of a global ethical assessment to raise climate ambition\u201d. But in recent weeks, the government has also been increasingly <a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/ambiente\/2025\/02\/lula-diz-ter-certeza-que-marina-nao-sera-contra-explorar-petroleo-na-foz-do-amazonas.shtml\">pushing<\/a> for oil exploration in Brazil\u2019s ecologically sensitive Foz do Amazonas, the mouth of the Amazon river.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This insistence on fossil fuels is raising scepticism around Brazil\u2019s green promises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-brazil-is-reliable-for-china\">\u2018Brazil is reliable for China\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>China imports <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=64544\">more<\/a> crude oil than any other country. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/commentaries\/china-s-slowdown-is-weighing-on-the-outlook-for-global-oil-demand-growth\">International Energy Agency<\/a><strong>,<\/strong> this demand has grown over recent decades mainly due to China\u2019s massive investments in industry and infrastructure, as well as its population growth and economic development. Russia and Saudi Arabia provided the bulk of China\u2019s crude oil imports in 2023; Brazil <a href=\"https:\/\/oec.world\/en\/visualize\/tree_map\/hs92\/import\/chn\/show\/52709\/2023\">ranked<\/a> sixth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBrazil is a reliable country for China,\u201d says Tulio Cariello, director of content and research at the Brazil-China Business Council (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cebc.org.br\/\">CEBC<\/a>). \u201cIt\u2019s a major producer, and has a lot of research, development and stability. The country enjoys a privileged geopolitical situation, as it is far from disputed regions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Brazilian government trade data, China has also exponentially increased its imports of refined fuel from Brazil: the amount spent climbed from USD 88 million to USD 609 million between 2023 and 2024. Dialogue Earth consulted Igor Celeste, a market intelligence manager at the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (<a href=\"https:\/\/apexbrasil.com.br\/\">ApexBrasil<\/a>): \u201cAlthough it\u2019s a more incipient product on the Chinese import list, we believe \u2013 given the dynamics of growth \u2013 that there may be more opportunities or demand in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Andr\u00e9 Le\u00e3o, a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies on Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels (<a href=\"https:\/\/ineep.org.br\/\">Ineep<\/a>) in Rio de Janeiro, says the intensification of the rivalry between the US and China after Donald Trump\u2019s victory could prompt Brazil to further expand its exports to China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cFrom a political point of view, Brazil is also likely to exhibit a tendency to distance itself from the US, although [Brazilian] diplomacy is adopting a cautious stance. This creates an opportunity to strengthen relations with China,\u201d explains Le\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China is a major consumer of oil and coal and maintains a predominantly fossil fuel-based energy mix. However, China is also <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/wind-solar-energy-china-climate-carbon-emissions-b337503abfacfd9b7829fd7bbcd507e9\">rapidly advancing<\/a> in its transition to cleaner energy sources: national CO2 emissions are expected to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2024\/nov\/27\/chinas-co2-emissions-have-peaked-or-will-in-2025-say-44-of-experts-in-survey\">peak<\/a> later this year. Sinopec, the largest Chinese oil refiner, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/sinopec-forecasts-chinas-petroleum-consumption-peak-by-2027-2024-12-19\/\">estimates<\/a> that refining will peak in 2027 as domestic consumption of diesel and petrol falls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite these circumstances, analysts expect Brazil\u2019s oil exports to the Chinese market to continue growing. Cariello says Brazil\u2019s supply will remain crucial to China, and while reducing their dependence on this market is something that \u201ccompanies in the sector are aware of\u201d, it will only occur \u201cin the distant future\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-financing-the-energy-transition\">Financing the energy transition<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil finds itself holding contradictory roles as both an exporter of growing volumes of oil and a leader on climate action. According to analysts, Brazil can reconcile these positions by maintaining its defence of <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/latin-america-readies-new-un-climate-plans-as-emissions-rise\/\">\u201ccommon but differentiated capacities and responsibilities\u201d<\/a>. This principle, enshrined under the United Nations\u2019 climate convention, holds that developing countries must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but without assuming the same targets as developed countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOne of the ways to reconcile this is to argue that the resources needed to make the transition come from oil exploration itself,\u201d adds Le\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-pull-quote block--pull-quote\"><div class=\"block--pull-quote__wrapper\"><blockquote class=\"block--pull-quote__quote\">Even in the most ambitious energy-transition scenarios, we haven\u2019t reached zero oil consumption<\/blockquote><cite class=\"block--pull-quote__cite\">Helo\u00edsa Borges Esteves, EPE\u2019s director of oil, gas and biofuels studies<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2024, the Energy Research Company (EPE), which supports Brazil\u2019s energy planning, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.epe.gov.br\/pt\/imprensa\/noticias\/epe-publica-estudo-sobre-o-papel-da-industria-de-petroleo-e-gas-natural-na-transicao-energetica\">published<\/a> a study highlighting the oil industry\u2019s strategic role in energy security and investment. The institution argues that oil sustains Brazil\u2019s economic development and its citizens\u2019 quality-of-life standards. It also argues that oil will continue to meet demand amid global uncertainties around the pace of fossil fuels\u2019 decline, and preserve jobs while the workforce adapts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cEven in the most ambitious energy-transition scenarios, we haven\u2019t reached zero oil consumption,\u201d says Helo\u00edsa Borges Esteves, EPE\u2019s director of oil, gas and biofuels studies. \u201cThe oil and gas industry needs to collaborate with the transition, financing the technologies we need.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Researchers consulted by Dialogue Earth say they recognise the country\u2019s dependence on oil, especially in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.epe.gov.br\/sites-pt\/publicacoes-dados-abertos\/publicacoes\/PublicacoesArquivos\/publicacao-804\/topico-709\/Caderno%20de%20Demanda%20de%20Transportes_PDE%202034_2024.09.03.pdf\">transport<\/a> sector. But they criticise the government\u2019s lack of mechanisms linking oil revenues to investments in clean sources, or to monitor such allocations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dialogue Earth spoke to Shigueo Watanabe Jr, a researcher and physicist specialising in climate change at <a href=\"https:\/\/climainfo.org.br\/sobre\/\">Climainfo<\/a>, a S\u00e3o Paulo-based non-profit dedicated to climate change news and research. \u201cIt\u2019s impossible to say, \u2018This item here is from royalties that the federal government earns from selling oil, and this money is being used for wind energy or public transport,\u2019\u201d he points out. \u201cWithout designating where the money is going, and without metrics that allow us to check whether this plan is being implemented, this story of financing the energy transition is a fantasy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"hide-expand block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/P-67-floating-production_tnrgo_abr_1907181936-scaled.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/P-67-floating-production_tnrgo_abr_1907181936-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/P-67-floating-production_tnrgo_abr_1907181936-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/P-67-floating-production_tnrgo_abr_1907181936-scaled.jpg 2560w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2560px\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">The P-67 floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel owned by Petrobras, anchored in Rio de Janeiro\u2019s Guanabara Bay. Brazil has plans to expand offshore oil production, with the Amazon coast one of its main targets (Image: T\u00e2nia R\u00eago \/ Ag\u00eancia Brasil)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/P-67-floating-production_tnrgo_abr_1907181936-scaled.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"494 KB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1707\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2560\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-oil-until-when\">Oil until when?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Tensions over oil exploration in Brazil have intensified in recent weeks, especially in relation to Foz do Amazonas. The project is causing divisions even within the government itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The oil firm Petrobras is seeking to move forward with studies to assess the viability of exploring the area. The state-owned company argues that Foz do Amazonas is crucial to keeping the country\u2019s oil reserves stable. However, the government\u2019s environmental agency, Ibama, <a href=\"https:\/\/climainfo.org.br\/2025\/02\/28\/tecnicos-do-ibama-recomendam-negar-licenca-para-petroleo-na-foz-do-amazonas\/\">recommends<\/a> rejecting the project\u2019s environmental licence. It cites potential harm to mangroves and sensitive Amazonian reefs, as well as to coastal populations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>President Lula has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cartacapital.com.br\/politica\/eu-quero-que-seja-explorado-diz-lula-sobre-petroleo-na-foz-do-rio-amazonas\/\">come out<\/a> emphatically in favour of this exploration. Faced with the possibility of Ibama\u2019s third rejection of the project, Lula says the agency \u201cseems to be against the government\u201d. Bras\u00edlia is now reportedly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnnbrasil.com.br\/blogs\/caio-junqueira\/politica\/governo-avalia-troca-no-ibama-para-viabilizar-petroleo-na-foz-do-amazonas\/#:~:text=Governo%20avalia%20troca%20no%20Ibama%20para%20viabilizar%20petr%C3%B3leo%20na%20foz%20do%20Amazonas,-Um%20dos%20nomes&amp;text=O%20Pal%C3%A1cio%20do%20Planalto%20j%C3%A1,PT%20e%20pr%C3%B3ximo%20a%20Lula.\">considering<\/a> replacing Ibama\u2019s management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Amid this impasse, some observers are highlighting the lack of concrete proposals to reduce Brazil\u2019s fossil fuel dependence. Watanabe Jr says the country will continue to exploit oil unless there is \u201ca revolution \u2013 which is unlikely\u201d. But he adds that the government \u201cneeds to have a plan to stop burning oil at some point, as soon as possible\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"60072000\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the EPE has an energy expansion <a href=\"https:\/\/www.epe.gov.br\/pt\/publicacoes-dados-abertos\/publicacoes\/Plano-Nacional-de-Energia-2050\">plan<\/a> up to 2050 that does not include clear carbon-neutrality scenarios. The government\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.br\/mma\/pt-br\/composicao\/smc\/plano-clima\">Climate Plan<\/a>, conceived as a pathway for climate change mitigation through to 2035, has been in preparation since 2023. Its first part is <a href=\"https:\/\/valor.globo.com\/brasil\/noticia\/2024\/12\/02\/plano-clima-ate-2035-comeca-a-dar-primeiros-passos.ghtml\">due<\/a> for publication this year. Until then, says Watanabe Jr, Brazil still does not have a clear plan to reduce its dependence on oil, whether for domestic consumption or export.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBrazil today <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnnbrasil.com.br\/economia\/macroeconomia\/producao-de-petroleo-no-brasil-sobe-34-em-agosto-segundo-anp\/\">extracts<\/a> more or less three million barrels of oil a day. We <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ibp.org.br\/observatorio-do-setor\/snapshots\/capacidade-de-refino-e-consumo-de-petroleo-por-pais\/\">consume<\/a> between one million and two million, and that million that\u2019s left over, we export,\u201d explains Watanabe Jr. \u201cThey export to make money; they get some royalties. But do you need to export all that oil? Probably not. It\u2019s a hyper-contradiction to say, \u2018let\u2019s take care of the climate\u2019, and at the same time increase emissions in order to have money.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude oil was Brazil\u2019s top export in 2024, with China its main buyer. As it aims to show leadership ahead of COP30, its government also hopes to explore a controversial Amazon field<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000145,"featured_media":60075653,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[758],"tags":[50029971,600],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000021],"class_list":["post-60075643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-oil","tag-trade","country-brazil"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Brazil\u2019s oil exports and exploration cast a shadow on its green ambitions<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Crude oil was Brazil\u2019s top export in 2024, with China its main buyer. 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As it aims to show leadership ahead of COP30, its government also hopes to explore a controversial Amazon field\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dialogue Earth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-04T16:07:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-10T14:20:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Petrobras-Abreu-e-Lima-refinery_d6a4676-2-1-scaled-e1743778031166.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andr\u00e9 Duchiade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Andr\u00e9 Duchiade\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/e6be05b3cbd1b0f9da33fbad9fface4f\"},\"headline\":\"Brazil\u2019s oil exports and exploration cast a shadow on its green ambitions\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-04T16:07:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-04-10T14:20:26+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/\"},\"wordCount\":1491,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Petrobras-Abreu-e-Lima-refinery_d6a4676-2-1-scaled-e1743778031166.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Oil\",\"Trade\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Business\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/\",\"name\":\"Brazil\u2019s oil exports and exploration cast a shadow on its green ambitions\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/brazils-oil-exports-and-exploration-cast-a-shadow-on-its-green-ambitions\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Petrobras-Abreu-e-Lima-refinery_d6a4676-2-1-scaled-e1743778031166.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-04T16:07:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-04-10T14:20:26+00:00\",\"description\":\"Crude oil was Brazil\u2019s top export in 2024, with China its main buyer. 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