No city escaped this reality. From one day to the next, Ecuador had seemingly regressed to the 18th century, as people started and finished their days without power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Shops sold out<\/a> of their stocks of uninterruptible power supply batteries and portable chargers. The noise of petrol generators became a constant feature<\/a> of the soundscape around buildings, shopping centres and restaurants, where people flocked to use the internet and charge their equipment. For industries, the outages generated losses of up to USD 7.5 billion, according to the Quito Chamber of Commerce<\/a>. Nationally, each hour of the blackouts was estimated to have caused economic losses of USD 12 million<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With Ecuador\u2019s presidential election looming, experts say the problem has not been solved and will be one of the main challenges facing the winner. In the first round held on 9 February, leftist candidate Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez, of the Citizen Revolution Movement party, and the current centre-right president, Daniel Noboa, progressed to the second round, which will be held this Sunday, 13 April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both have included renewable energies in their government plans but have not elaborated on how they will implement these strategies in the face of the crisis, with their proposals light on possible solutions. The current government, meanwhile, has largely sought its answers through the expansion of fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The main cause of this crisis, former energy minister Roberto Luque said<\/a> in April 2024, was a severe drought, considered the country\u2019s worst in 60 years. Rivers dried up and hydroelectric plants, responsible for about 80%<\/a> of the country\u2019s electricity, stopped working. That April \u2013 a month previously characterised by rain \u2013 brought the first power outages of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere were already very deep vulnerabilities in Ecuador\u2019s energy and water sectors that the drought only detonated,\u201d Homero Palt\u00e1n, a researcher on climate and water risks at Oxford University, tells Dialogue Earth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In his proposed government plan<\/a>, published ahead of the elections, Noboa proposes to promote clean energy and boost renewables through public and private investment, and alliances between the two. In addition, he says his government would encourage international cooperation for research into these technologies, \u201cfacilitating the energy transition towards more sustainable sources\u201d. In 2024, his government\u2019s Electricity Master Plan to 2032<\/a> pitched 37 new generation projects with a capacity of 7.4 gigawatts, at a cost of over USD 10 billion.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Gonz\u00e1lez, meanwhile, proposes<\/a> \u201cto advance change in the energy matrix\u2026 emphasising the demand for alternative energies to encourage a change in consumption patterns\u201d. Her 16-point plan for the energy transition also makes pledges to promote energy efficiency measures, and, similar to Noboa, to encourage public-private partnerships. However, she stresses that fossil fuels will still be used, reaffirming \u201cenergy sovereignty\u201d over Ecuador\u2019s resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The crisis has been the event that has had the most significant impact on the approval ratings of Noboa, whose tenure as president since late 2023 has been dominated by challenges around security and organised crime. According to data from the pollster Comunicaliza<\/a>, on 10 April 2024, when the blackouts began, rejection of Noboa reached 35%, as opposed to 10% two months earlier in February, when there were no blackouts. When the crisis reached 14 hours of power cuts per day last October, the figure rose to almost 50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another point of Gonz\u00e1lez\u2019 energy plan is to bring hydroelectric plants back under public management, following the line of former president Rafael Correa (2007\u20132017), who launched 14 hydroelectric projects in just a decade \u2013 although some have yet to open and others regularly break down<\/a>. Noboa does not mention hydroelectric plants in his plan, but he has backed projects that had been delayed since Correa\u2019s time, such as the trouble Toachi Pilat\u00f3n<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For Palt\u00e1n, the idea should not be to save the country\u2019s hydroelectric plants, but to enhance water and energy security, including through other measures such as reducing losses or technical inefficiencies in energy transmission. Fernando Salinas, an energy analyst with nearly two decades\u2019 experience in Ecuador\u2019s electricity sector, explains that energy losses during distribution in the country\u2019s grid can reach as high as 30% of generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Ecuador\u2019s latest Energy Balance report<\/a>, the electricity supply in 2023 had a contribution of 69.1% from hydroelectricity, 25.6% from thermal sources and 1.7% from other sources, with the remainder met by imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIf we have mostly hydroelectric power plants, the energy supply is at risk when there is a variation in flows,\u201d Ricardo Buitr\u00f3n Aguirre, a hydraulic engineer and independent energy consultant, tells Dialogue Earth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Buitr\u00f3n Aguirre explains that on the eastern slope of the country\u2019s Andes, where there are around 4,000 MW of installed hydroelectric power in plants, such as those of the Paute Complex, the low water periods run from October to March. On the western slope, the side closer to Ecuador\u2019s coastal cities, where there are up to 1,000 MW installed, flows decrease between June and December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, in April 2024, the Mazar reservoir<\/a>, the largest in the country, went out of operation. Mazar has a capacity of 410 million cubic metres of water and is located in the Paute river basin, in the province of Azuay, in the Ecuadorian highlands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Salinas tells Dialogue Earth that the country consumes around 100 gigawatt hours each day. When hydroelectric plants go out of operation, there is a deficit or a difference between demand and energy generation. During the energy crisis, a deficit of up to 30 gigawatt hours was recorded. In other words, only 70 GWh could be supplied by its generation sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although the focus has been on the impact of the drought, Ecuador\u2019s energy sector faces other problems. The Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant, which was inaugurated in 2016, is still not operating at 100% due to faults<\/a> in its construction. At a time of blackouts, it had to close 18 times<\/a> between January and June 2024 due to an accumulation of sediment behind its dam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The 254.4 MW-capacity Toachi Pilat\u00f3n plant is another project that has been repeatedly hampered<\/a>, ever since the contract for its construction was signed in 2007. In December 2024, turbine three of the Alluriqu\u00edn power plant<\/a>, which is part of the same hydroelectric complex, was connected to the National Interconnected System (SNI), the country\u2019s electrical grid. As it entered operation in February, President Noboa said<\/a> the project was helping to \u201censure that every corner of Ecuador has the energy it needs\u201d. Two further units are set to be added in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Salinas says addressing the issue of distribution losses and improving efficiency will be one of the challenges facing the new government. In addition, and despite the goals of the electricity master plan, he says there is yet not enough investment in new electricity generation to meet demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the National Energy Balance<\/a> report, electricity consumption per person in Ecuador increased by 28.8% between 2013 and 2023. \u201cWhen the crisis began, I said that the blackouts were here to stay,\u201d add Salinas. \u201cSince then there has been no change in the dynamics of the sector and the situation has not changed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the Fifth National Communication and First Transparency Report<\/a> \u2013 a submission required under the United Nations\u2019 climate convention \u2013 Ecuador has 77 operational hydroelectric plants, which generate \u201celectricity in a sustainable and renewable way\u201d. But Palt\u00e1n sees this crisis as a challenge for the energy transition. \u201cBeing green or friendly is being put on the back burner,\u201d he tells Dialogue Earth. One of the government\u2019s measures,<\/a> for example, was to launch a temporary exemption<\/a> of all tariffs for petrol and diesel generators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Though a temporary salve to the energy crisis, the recourse to fossil fuel sources may have brought other impacts. Studies set to be published by Rasa Zalakeviciute, a researcher at the Universidad de las Am\u00e9ricas (UDLA), and her student G\u00e9nesis Chuquimarca, will show the concentration of the pollutant nitrogen dioxide (NO2) increased by 22% in Quito during the energy crisis, and exceeded the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) permissible levels for 24-hour concentrations. Fine particulate matter PM2.5 also increased by 5.48% and exceeded WHO levels. Exposure to PM2.5 can cause cancer and affect the cardiovascular system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Zalakeviciute, the highest levels were recorded when blackouts lasted longer and there was higher usage of fossil fuel generators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Between September 2024 and March 2025, the government has also leased three thermoelectric generation barges<\/a> with a total capacity of 300 MW from the Turkish company Karpowership. The vessels cost USD 250 million. All three are operational and connected to the SNI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As in other parts of the world, gas has been pitched by the government as a viable alternative. Eyes have turned offshore to the Amistad Field<\/a>, located in the Gulf of Guayaquil. It began producing gas in 2002 and, according to PetroEcuador, the government-owned oil company, the field can \u201creach a production of 94 million cubic feet per day (MMPCD), which is the operational capacity of the pipeline\u201d. Current production is 20 million cubic feet per day from the three producing wells, which support local energy generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2023, the state explained that to increase the field\u2019s production, a strategic partner was required. However, in September 2024, it was announced<\/a> that the Amistad field would return to the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) for a renewed auction, as PetroEcuador did not have the technical knowledge to manage and develop it as the government wanted. In November, Guillermo Ferreira, vice-minister of hydrocarbons in Noboa\u2019s government, announced<\/a> that invitations had been sent to international companies, such as the Chinese group Sinopec, to participate in the tender. All of them had until 31 March to send their economic proposals.<\/p>\n\n\n\nA little addressed, but decisive issue<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"President](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/President-Noboa-Toachi-Pilaton-visit_Eduardo-Santillan_Flickr_54035105842-2.jpg\")
<\/div>![\"Luisa](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Luisa-Gonzalez-at-National-Assembly-session_Christian-Medina_Flickr_52197115710.jpg\")
<\/div>Hydroelectric plants at risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"dammed](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Mazar-hydropower-dam_Eduardo-Santillan_Flickr_53706241653.jpg\")
<\/div>Drought is not the only culprit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Fossil fuels as an immediate solution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"petrol](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Ecuador-petrol-generators_Alamy_2Y8CHTW-scaled.jpg\")
<\/div>Is gas the solution?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n