{"id":60078318,"date":"2025-04-25T11:56:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-25T10:56:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60078318"},"modified":"2025-05-15T15:08:40","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:08:40","slug":"us-china-tariff-spat-could-raise-brazil-deforestation-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/us-china-tariff-spat-could-raise-brazil-deforestation-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"US-China tariff spat could raise Brazil deforestation risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The trade dispute between the United States and China is weakening the US position in the Chinese market. Tariffs of more than 200%<\/a> and mutual retaliation<\/a> are also fuelling expectations that Brazilian agribusiness will expand exports to China, while environmentalists warn of increased pressure on forest areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Products such as soy, corn, cotton, beef and chicken have the greatest potential for immediate demand growth, say experts. Having already consolidated its position in these markets, Brazil has a competitive advantage, especially given the possibility<\/a> of a record grain harvest this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGrowth could be significant in the short term,\u201d Camila Amigo, international analyst at the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC), tells Dialogue Earth. \u201cThis has already happened in previous moments of the trade war, especially between 2018 and 2019.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At that time, US President Donald Trump\u2019s first administration increased<\/a> tariffs on several countries, especially China, which retaliated. The confrontation affected global production chains and Brazil benefitted<\/a> by taking over most of the US soy market in China, according to the US Department of Agriculture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, newly increased foreign demand could raise Brazilian food prices, which have been rising<\/a> faster than general inflation since the Covid-19 pandemic. Brazil\u2019s logistical infrastructure for transporting grain, such as its ports, roads and railways, already has bottlenecks<\/a> and could face congestion as exports increase, raising freight costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, peaks in foreign demand for Brazilian agricultural commodities have historically also led to increased deforestation, especially in the Cerrado and the Amazon, according to Paulo Barreto, a researcher at the Amazon Institute for People and the Environment (Imazon). \u201cIf current conditions continue, if there is more demand, there will tend to be more deforestation again,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Studies<\/a> and analysts<\/a> indicate, for example, that Amazon deforestation jumped between 1995 and 2004 as Brazil\u2019s agricultural areas and cattle population expanded to meet growing international demand for soy and beef.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The<\/div>
The Wawi Indigenous territory borders a soybean plantation in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Agricultural expansion has long put pressure on the Amazon forest and its traditional communities (Image: Fl\u00e1via Milhorance \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Brazil already leads in the Chinese market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tensions between the United States and China began to rise<\/a> in 2017, during Donald Trump\u2019s first term in office, with the conflict coming to a head in 2018 as the two countries announced a range of tariffs upon each other\u2019s goods. That year, in response to US measures, China imposed<\/a> a 25% tariff on 106 American products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade disputes simmered with the signing<\/a> of a tentative agreement between Washington and Beijing in 2020, followed by a shift in political focus after Joe Biden took office the following year. Still, his administration largely upheld most Trump-era tariffs, and even increased<\/a> rates on some Chinese products. Trump\u2019s return to the presidency in 2025 has since reignited the conflict on a new scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between 2020 and 2024, the United States managed to recover part of its soybean and beef exports to China. However, Brazil had already filled the gap left during the height of the trade war and consolidated its lead in the Chinese market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2018, Brazil overtook the US to become China\u2019s top agricultural supplier, shipping a total of USD 37 billion in goods, according to a study<\/a> published this year by research institute Insper Agro Global.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although other factors may have had an influence, shipments of Brazilian meat and soy to China grew significantly between 2016 \u2013 before the Trump administration\u2019s disputes \u2013 and 2024, according to foreign trade data from the Brazilian government. Meat exports to China in that period increased eightfold, from 165,000 to 1.32 million tonnes, while soy sales increased by 88%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n