{"id":60080789,"date":"2025-05-09T18:26:10","date_gmt":"2025-05-09T17:26:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60080789"},"modified":"2025-06-03T08:23:06","modified_gmt":"2025-06-03T07:23:06","slug":"what-indias-river-moves-mean-for-south-asian-water-cooperation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/what-indias-river-moves-mean-for-south-asian-water-cooperation\/","title":{"rendered":"What India\u2019s river moves mean for South Asian water cooperation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On 23 April, India announced it would suspend the Indus Waters Treaty<\/a> (IWT), a landmark water-sharing agreement with Pakistan signed in 1960. The move marked a significant escalation in South Asia\u2019s already fraught transboundary water diplomacy. Two weeks later, on 6 May, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated<\/a> India\u2019s hardline stance: \u201cNow, India\u2019s water will flow for India\u2019s benefit, it will be conserved for India\u2019s benefit and it will be used for India\u2019s progress.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The announcements followed a deadly terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on 22 April that killed 26 and left 17 injured. India has blamed the attack on Pakistan, which has denied<\/a> involvement. In response, India carried out what it called \u201cprecision strikes<\/a>\u201d across nine targets, which it described as \u201cterrorist camps\u201d in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in the early hours of 7 May. The next day, both countries engaged in cross-border drone strikes<\/a>, signalling a further deterioration in bilateral ties. India\u2019s abeyance<\/a> of the IWT is part of this broader response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brokered by the World Bank, the treaty governs the use of the Indus River system. It allocates the three eastern rivers \u2013 Ravi, Beas, Sutlej \u2013 to India, and the three western rivers \u2013 Indus, Jhelum, Chenab \u2013 to Pakistan. While experts note<\/a> that India cannot legally divert water from the western rivers under the treaty, recent actions suggest it is testing the limits of the agreement.

On 1 May, India initiated a sediment-flushing operation at the Baglihar and Salal hydroelectric dams on the Chenab \u2013 an activity typically conducted in August \u2013 without prior notice to Pakistan. Then, on 4 May, it closed<\/a> the dams\u2019 sluice gates, significantly restricting downstream flows and raising concerns in Pakistan. India is also planning<\/a> further restrictions at the Kishanganga Dam on the Jhelum. The World Bank, meanwhile, has said<\/a> its role is limited to facilitation of the treaty rather than enforcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Reuters reported<\/a> that India has accelerated construction of hydropower projects on the Chenab, including the Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar and Ratle projects \u2013 developments with geopolitical and ecological implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the treaty permits run-of-river projects with limited storage, the 1,000-megawatt Pakal Dul project, which includes a reservoir, is set to become the largest hydropower project in Jammu and Kashmir, which Pakistan has previously objected to<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Experts caution that these projects could trigger ecological and environmental disasters. Himanshu Thakkar, a water expert and coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, says that every major intervention in this highly vulnerable, fragile and disaster-prone area invites more risks, including increased intensity, frequency and reach, along with displacement and deforestation. \u201cClimate change adds another layer of uncertainty and disasters,\u201d he says. Thakkar also adds that India\u2019s fast-tracked projects often lack proper groundwork: \u201cThere is a lack of sufficient homework on geological aspects, early warning systems and landslide-proneness. Accelerating without doing the homework will invite more trouble.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s actions also ripple across the broader region. About 74%<\/a> of South Asia\u2019s population is exposed to high water stress, with much of the region dependent on hydrological data-sharing \u2013 one of the obligations under the treaty. Like Pakistan, Bangladesh has long relied on India\u2019s cooperation for timely water data and equitable flows for the Ganges and Teesta rivers, says Ashok Swain, Unesco chair of international water cooperation and professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University in Sweden. He warns that India\u2019s shift could undermine regional cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When we weaponise water and a river, what exactly are we doing? Who suffers? Innocent people<\/blockquote>Himanshu Thakkar, water expert and coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Similar concerns have been expressed by Bangladeshi water experts. Aninun Nishat, a water and climate expert from Dhaka, told The Hindu<\/a> that the move may jeopardise renewal of the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty,<\/a> which expires next year. \u201cIf India continues to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, then it will create doubts about India\u2019s willingness to share river waters with Bangladesh,\u201d he said. Critics might argue that \u201cIndia\u2019s assurances on the Ganga equally have no value\u201d, Nishat added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Swain says this could push Bangladesh to strengthen water cooperation with China through investments in water infrastructure. \u201cThis will reduce India\u2019s regional influence and deepen China\u2019s strategic footprint in its backyard,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thakkar agrees, noting that this may lead China to expand its involvement in South Asia, particularly in infrastructure projects which may influence regional partnerships and shift geopolitical dynamics, especially in countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. However, he believes that the \u201cpurely commercial, contractual point of view\u201d of China could mean it will not be a good deal for such countries. Thakkar cites the Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project in Pakistan as an example. In 2022, Chinese firms halted<\/a> operations and repair of the 969-megawatt project due to protests and payment disputes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nepal, too, may reassess its treaties with India. Swain notes: \u201cAlready wary of being the junior partner in past treaties, Kathmandu could be tempted further to explore alternative partnerships with China or adopt a more transactional approach to hydropower deals with India.\u201d

Thakkar, however, points out that Nepal\u2019s options are limited. \u201cFor Nepal, the only market for excess electricity is India. And India has made it clear that it will not<\/a> buy power from projects in which the Chinese are involved.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Swain notes that there are also strategic risks from the north. In 2024, China approved<\/a> the construction of the world\u2019s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (which becomes the Brahmaputra in India). Swain highlights the complexities surrounding China\u2019s plans, and notes that unlike India\u2019s extensive bilateral agreements with neighbouring countries, China has no formal water-sharing arrangements with India or its other neighbours. He adds that, at a time when India is signalling a willingness to use water as strategic leverage, \u201cChina, which already has a record of withholding hydrological data during critical periods such as the 2017 Doklam standoff<\/a>, may take a similar approach.\u201d

But China faces significant challenges too. \u201cThe geology, meteorology and climate are very fragile there,\u201d notes Thakkar. He adds that while fears of Chinese water dominance are real, they are often used to justify India\u2019s own hydropower ambitions. Instead of relying on uncertain bilateral data, Thakkar suggests India invests in satellite monitoring to assess upstream activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Considering China\u2019s deepening ties with Pakistan and its involvement in large hydropower projects, the dynamics around water security in South Asia are becoming more complex. Swain notes that while India\u2019s decision to unilaterally suspend the Indus Waters Treaty may seem like a tactical response to Pakistan\u2019s provocations, it risks setting a precedent that could unravel the fragile fabric of regional water cooperation both in the wider region and at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf India\u2019s northern water systems come under pressure due to upstream Chinese projects, its ability to ensure water security in the northeastern states could be severely compromised. The already tense conditions in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam could be exacerbated by ecological disruptions and data blackouts,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf India, long seen as a status-quo power in transboundary water governance, begins treating water as a strategic weapon, it opens the door for other states to follow suit.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both Thakkar and Swain emphasise that using transboundary rivers as tools of coercion will affect India\u2019s credibility among neighbouring states. Swain also notes that it might also invite retaliatory measures that could erode its standing in the region and globally. \u201cFor a country that seeks leadership in climate diplomacy and South-South cooperation, this path carries strategic costs that far outweigh any tactical gains.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thakkar concludes on a human note: beyond geopolitical costs, there are significant human impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen we weaponise water and a river, what exactly are we doing? Who suffers? Innocent people.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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