{"id":60091533,"date":"2025-07-23T18:31:22","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T17:31:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60091533"},"modified":"2025-07-31T15:21:41","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T14:21:41","slug":"how-chinas-lng-growth-is-shaping-southeast-asian-energy-plans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/how-chinas-lng-growth-is-shaping-southeast-asian-energy-plans\/","title":{"rendered":"How China\u2019s LNG growth is shaping Southeast Asian energy plans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In 2021, the size of China\u2019s liquefied natural gas imports<\/a> surpassed every other country. After falling back to second place in 2022, it reclaimed the top spot in 2023<\/a> and stayed there in 2024<\/a>. In addition, new data<\/a> from BloombergNEF shows China also holds the most long-term contracts, with Southeast Asia \u2013 especially Malaysia and Brunei \u2013 among its key suppliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn our 2030 outlook<\/a> [published earlier this year], we expected China to be the major growth driver of liquefied natural gas demand, and following China is emerging Asia: Southeast Asia, and South Asia,\u201d says Ziyue Daniela Li, a Beijing-based senior associate from BloombergNEF\u2019s Asia Pacific Gas team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surging Chinese demand is prolonging liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, even as other markets (such as Japan and South Korea) reduce their use of the fuel. That provides a lifeline for major producers in Southeast Asia, such as Petronas, Woodside Energy, and Brunei LNG Sendirian Berhad. It may also be incentivising production or consumption increases in Southeast Asia, potentially locking in decades of emissions, and undermining regional and global climate goals. This worries climate change activists and scientists, who warn that continued LNG consumption will exacerbate global heating via both CO2 and methane emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is \u2018natural\u2019 gas considered a \u2018transition fuel\u2019?<\/span>
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Compared to coal and oil, \u201cnatural\u201d gas releases lower levels of carbon dioxide and air pollutants when burned. Therefore, some have advocated for the use of gas as a \u201cbridge\u201d or \u201ctransition fuel<\/a>\u201d, to help support the process of transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many experts contend<\/a> that this argument is a red herring that could impede investment in cheaper and less-polluting renewable energy. In 2021, the International Energy Agency said<\/a> \u201cno new oil and natural gas fields are needed in the net zero pathway.\u201d In 2025, it described the role of natural gas as a coal-to-renewables transition fuel as \u201climited<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Globally, approximately 15%<\/a> of this gas is consumed as liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is easier to transport and store. In 2024, a Cornell University study<\/a> concluded that LNG\u2019s global warming potential is 33% higher than coal\u2019s across 20 years when its extraction, processing, shipping and burning is considered as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNatural\u201d gas is a fossil fuel used in electricity generation, heating buildings, cooking, and industrial processes. It is mostly composed of methane, along with smaller amounts of other hydrocarbons such as ethane and propane. This gas is described as \u201cnatural\u201d because it is extracted from underground reservoirs where it occurs naturally \u2013 as opposed to synthetic, man-made gasses.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIndonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are all planning to have gas in their energy systems up to 2050,\u201d says Amalen S, co-founder and Asia director of the activism non-profit Artivist Network<\/a>, based in Malaysia. \u201cGas expansion is something to be concerned about, due to problems with gas leaks, pipes and, more importantly, the ecosystem and social destruction that comes about with expanded gas infrastructure along the coast.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitics and energy security<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s LNG imports rise came just as Asia\u2019s two traditional major LNG-importing countries, Japan and South Korea, posted consumption peaks. Japan\u2019s imports have been falling<\/a> since 2015, owing to its shrinking population and growing renewable energy capacity. South Korea\u2019s consumption peaked<\/a> around 2020-2021 and is expected to decline further<\/a> this decade. Chinese growth has more than offset those declines, driving the expansion of LNG production across Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Malaysia, now fifth<\/a> globally for LNG exports, has seen demand from China rise<\/a> significantly in the past decade to become its second-largest<\/a> market. Brunei\u2019s exports to China have also risen and it signed<\/a> a five-year LNG contract with state-owned PetroChina in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to BloombergNEF\u2019s Li, China is expected to maintain and even increase these import figures, at least until 2035. It will have the world\u2019s largest collection of long-term LNG contracts and continue growing its orders from all the major LNG exporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n