{"id":60093846,"date":"2025-08-12T18:00:23","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T17:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60093846"},"modified":"2025-08-18T11:16:49","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T10:16:49","slug":"chinas-belt-and-road-hits-new-highs-but-latin-america-lags","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/chinas-belt-and-road-hits-new-highs-but-latin-america-lags\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s Belt and Road hits new highs, but Latin America lags"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The first half of 2025 saw the highest engagement ever for a six-month period under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China\u2019s flagship global infrastructure programme, a new report has shown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The total USD 123 billion of deals breaks down into USD 66 billion in construction contracts and USD 57 billion in investments, finds the latest Belt and Road investment report<\/a> from the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This included a record USD 9.7 billion of engagements in green-energy sectors, including wind and solar, at a time when Chinese clean-tech manufacturers are increasingly seeking overseas markets<\/a> amid biting domestic competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, as China\u2019s overall energy-related activities reached USD 42 billion \u2013 more than for any other six-month period since the BRI\u2019s inception in 2013 \u2013 oil and gas were the driving forces, accounting for some USD 30 billion of the total. Coal-related investments also remain active<\/a>, despite Chinese leader Xi Jinping\u2019s 2021 pledge to end overseas financing for the energy source.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some 150 countries are signed up to the BRI and the record engagement has been driven by Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East, which have attracted over two-thirds of it so far in 2025. Nigeria\u2019s Ogidibgen gas-centred industrial park alone accounted for USD 20 billion<\/a> of investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Latin America, however, it has been a different story. Following two years of declining<\/a> BRI engagements, the 21 countries in the region to have signed up to the initiative received just 1.14% of construction engagement and 0.4% of investment in the first half of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The figures reflect the ongoing recalibration<\/a> of Chinese investment in Latin America this decade, as the vast loans from China\u2019s state-owned policy banks that defined BRI engagement in the 2010s have faded to almost zero. The large-scale infrastructure projects that such financing supported have also declined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such engagement brought new roads<\/a>, railways<\/a>, dams<\/a> and ports<\/a> to the region, but investments were not always met with universal approval in host countries. Several projects attracted criticism<\/a> for environmental and social concerns, and this is said to be among the factors prompting a rethink for Chinese investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/div>
The China-backed Chancay megaport in June 2024. Chinese leader Xi Jinping travelled to the Latin American country for the port\u2019s inauguration in November 2024 (Image: Presidencia del Consejo de Ministros de Per\u00fa<\/a> \/ Flickr<\/a>, CC BY-NC-SA<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChinese companies and banks have sought to minimise risk, whether by pursuing smaller projects or avoiding potentially problematic ones,\u201d Margaret Myers, managing director of the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, told Dialogue Earth. \u201cIt is indeed possible that Latin America is viewed as a more difficult destination for certain types of projects, whether because of local conditions, political shifts, a watchful US eye on the region, or any other number of reasons.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myers added that the notable uptick in engagement in other regions, such as the Middle East and Central Asia, may indicate a \u201ccontinued reliance on BRI-era logic\u201d from Beijing, that is, pursuing domestic growth targets by finding new demand for Chinese companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Parsifal D\u2019Sola, executive director of Fundaci\u00f3n Andr\u00e9s Bello, a Colombia-based think-tank focusing on China, told Dialogue Earth that under the BRI, Beijing has tended \u201cto favour state-to-state relations, which facilitates the entry of projects and financing in countries where decision-making is concentrated in a small group and the market plays a secondary role.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese companies and banks have sought to minimise risk, whether by pursuing smaller projects or avoiding potentially problematic ones<\/blockquote>Margaret Myers, Johns Hopkins University<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

But despite the negligible figures for BRI engagements, analysts consulted by Dialogue Earth agreed that the China-Latin America relationship remains robust, with the region still a significant focus for Chinese investors and stakeholders, notably in trade. They also sought to highlight key emerging areas of engagement in green tech, energy, critical minerals and other innovative sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belt and Road figures belie strong engagement<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The BRI, and the broader role of China in Latin America, has rarely remained far from the headlines and political debates in the past year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most recently, Colombia signed up<\/a> for the initiative in May. Brazil, having seemed to finally be warming up<\/a> to the idea of membership under the current Lula government, once more wavered on signing on in late 2024. Panama, meanwhile, has become the first Latin American country to exit the BRI<\/a>, under pressure from the new Trump administration in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But a focus solely on the BRI belies the scale of Chinese engagement in Latin America, including in construction and investment outside the initiative. Both D\u2019Sola and Rebecca Ray, a senior academic researcher on China in Latin America at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, highlighted the absence from the BRI \u2013 and therefore related data \u2013 of the region\u2019s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, which together account for 60% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Two<\/div>
Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia signed a memorandum of understanding with China on its entry to the Belt and Road Initiative in May 2025. Panama, meanwhile, has become the first Latin American country to exit the programme (Image: Juan Diego Cano<\/a> \/ Presidencia de Colombia<\/a>, PDM<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In particular, Brazil \u2013 already established as China\u2019s most significant trade partner in the region \u2013 has recently welcomed significant investments from Chinese companies in electric-vehicle<\/a> and wind-turbine manufacturing, its grid infrastructure<\/a> and, more controversially, in oil<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven though Brazil is not formally part of the Belt and Road, we are, in many ways, very much aligned with its spirit,\u201d said Tulio Cariello, director of content and research at the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC). \u201cWe\u2019ve been receiving investments in infrastructure for quite some time now \u2013 especially in the energy sector \u2013 but also in ports, storage, logistics and more.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking beyond investment and construction under the BRI, all analysts consulted sought to emphasise instead the role of trade as the primary driver of the China-Latin America relationship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, total trade between China and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) reached USD 518 billion, according to China\u2019s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM<\/a>). This places China as the region\u2019s second-largest trading partner overall, and the largest for South America alone (excluding the Caribbean and Central America).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLatin America remains of critical interest to China, though for many of the same reasons that it attracted Chinese attention in the early 2000s,\u201d said Myers. The region, she added, \u201cfactors prominently in China\u2019s food and energy security calculus, as a primary supplier of agricultural goods and the metals and minerals that have enabled China\u2019s massive domestic infrastructure development over the years and that now feed its high-tech industries.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South America exports vast quantities of soy, copper, lithium, iron ore and oil to fuel China\u2019s industrial economy, while importing machinery, electronics and, increasingly, electric vehicles and green technologies. Countries such as Brazil, Chile and Peru have become deeply integrated into China\u2019s value chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

However, D\u2019Sola raised frustrations with this relationship as entrenching a continued dependence on raw material exports. \u201cRather than acting as an agent of productive diversification, China has functioned as a force for \u2018reprimarisation\u2019 in line with the region\u2019s historical economic dynamics: the export of a limited portfolio of primary products,\u201d he said. Reprimarisation is when an economy slides back towards reliance on resource extraction after having diversified into manufacturing or services. \u201cThis pattern, which has served China\u2019s commercial interests, reinforces its role as a commodity buyer rather than a transformative investor,\u201d D\u2019Sola added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The director\u2019s comments reflect growing demands from nations such as Chile, Brazil and Argentina for support from their export partners to add domestic value to their raw materials, and help them move up value chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New areas of focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A growing share of Chinese engagement in Latin America is driven by strategic investments in new sectors, including EVs, critical minerals and renewable energy, often led by private companies, rather than the state-owned enterprises that dominated contracts in the early BRI era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EV sector is a clear example. In Brazil, Chinese carmaker BYD, the world\u2019s largest EV manufacturer, has begun<\/a> production in the north-eastern state of Bahia, taking over a former Ford plant with aims to serve both domestic and regional markets. The company is also working on EV infrastructure, such as charging stations and battery recycling, while other brands such as GWM and Chery are also setting up facilities in the country. Meanwhile, Costa Rica, a leader in the region for EV uptake, has seen growing interest<\/a> from Chinese EV exporters, benefitting from the country\u2019s early adoption of clean mobility policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Latin America\u2019s role as a global supplier of critical minerals, including lithium, copper and rare earths, has placed it at the centre of China\u2019s interests. Chile and Argentina, along with Bolivia, make up the so-called \u2018Lithium Triangle\u2019, a region where Chinese firms such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have deepened stakes<\/a> in recent years. In Peru, Chinese companies continue to invest heavily in copper mining, while Brazil is seeing increased interest<\/a> in both its lithium and nickel resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On renewables, the push is currently led by commercial players pursuing joint ventures and acquisitions. In Brazil, for example, Chinese wind-turbine maker Goldwind is investing<\/a> in local production to serve the well-established Brazilian market, and easing expansion across South America. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if [BRI] investment figures in Latin America have decreased, I believe the relationship between China and Latin America remains very promising<\/blockquote>Tulio Cariello, Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC)<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Ray cautioned that while the region has seen significant announcements in recent years, such as the opening of the Chancay port<\/a>, there have also been setbacks, highlighting the intention of BYD and metals giant Tsingshan to cancel<\/a> lithium industrialisation plants in Chile: \u201cThis type of flagship project is inevitably vulnerable to changing market landscapes, and so observers would be wise to use caution when interpreting governments\u2019 and firms\u2019  announcements of major new projects.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the diplomatic level, the scale and importance of relationship on both sides of the Pacific was emphasised at the May summit between China and Latin American and Caribbean states<\/a> in Beijing. In addition to calls to expand cooperation on clean energy, artificial intelligence and the digital economy, the meeting also saw President Xi personally announce pledges to provide USD 10 billion in new credit to the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven if investment figures in Latin America [under the BRI] have decreased, I believe the relationship between China and Latin America remains very promising. There\u2019s a strong complementarity,\u201d said Cariello.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is clear that Chinese investment in the region isn\u2019t ending but rather shifting in notable new directions,\u201d Myers concluded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fl\u00e1via Milhorance contributed reporting for this article.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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