The ocean stores a huge amount of both the carbon dioxide and the heat that human activity produces. Safeguarding the ocean\u2019s ability to capture and store carbon is considered vital to holding back the most devastating levels of global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But that ability is also compromised by this very issue, because as the Earth heats, its carbon-trapping coral reefs, mangroves and other marine organisms struggle with warmer and acidifying waters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysing \u2018NDCs\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Under the Paris Agreement, parties must update and submit their national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), to the UN every five years.\u00a0This month, dozens of countries, including China and the European Union bloc, submitted<\/a> their new climate commitments ahead of COP30. Most countries had failed to submit their NDCs by the initial February deadline as well as an informal extension of September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Under the 2015 Paris Agreement<\/a>, countries are required to prepare an outline for their efforts to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These commitments are referred to as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n NDCs are submitted every five years, and successive NDCs are supposed to be more ambitious than previous ones (the so-called \u201cratchet mechanism\u201d). Combined, these national targets should amount to a coordinated global effort to reduce the severity and impact of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Read our guide to climate change terms<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n Researchers from Australia\u2019s University of New South Wales (UNSW) have analysed<\/a> all 123 NDCs submitted before 19 November, when the study was published. They found that 85 of the 96 nations with a coastline had pledged at least one ocean-based action. This was an 82% increase compared to the previous round of submissions five years ago. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere is an increasing awareness of the importance of the ocean to climate actions,\u201d says the UNSW report\u2019s co-author Eliza Northrop, who heads up the university\u2019s Centre for Sustainable Development Reform. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Measures to conserve marine and coastal ecosystems were by far the most common among the latest NDCs, accounting for over 43% of all ocean-based measures. Safeguarding and restoring these ecosystems \u2013 especially mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass \u2013 can help them to better sequester so-called blue carbon and to defend coastlines. Saving these ecosystems also prevents the carbon they have trapped from being released. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Nearly 70% of ocean-based measures in national plans primarily target adaptation, according to Northrop\u2019s research. For example, conserving mangroves for coastal defence and managing the climate risks that fisheries face. Northrop tells Dialogue Earth that this emphasis on adapting to climate change has been persistent across the past three rounds of NDC submissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But some researchers and activists want to see more diverse \u2013 and tougher \u2013 ocean-related pledges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cRight now, we\u2019re seeing a lot of conservation measures,\u201d says Marine Lecerf from the Ocean & Climate Platform, which promotes the science that underpins the connections between the ocean, the climate and biodiversity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lecerf urges countries to \u201cdiversify the type of solutions that they are using\u201d. She co-authored a working paper<\/a> analysing countries\u2019 ocean action in NDCs submitted before early November. It notes that ocean-based climate mitigation measures, including phasing out offshore oil and gas, reducing emissions from the shipping industry, and scaling up offshore wind and other ocean-based renewables, remain underrepresented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The least mentioned ocean-based action across all the latest NDCs is the phasing out of offshore oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Among all the national pledges analysed in the UNSW report, the researchers identified just two measures specifically related to offshore fossil fuels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Dialogue Earth found that these were pledged by Colombia and the United Kingdom. Colombia\u2019s national plan celebrates its \u201chistoric\u201d decision to suspend new hydrocarbon exploration contracts. It has also vowed<\/a> to make the existing sector more efficient. And the United Kingdom\u2019s plan pledges<\/a> \u201cto consult on not issuing\u201d new oil and gas exploration licenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Most countries are not making specific commitments for the sector, although in some cases, oil and gas targets have been bundled up in broader, economy-wide targets. For instance, Japan<\/a> and Norway<\/a>, which have huge ocean industries, offered only a general commitment to emissions cuts covering all sectors. Neither detailed any marine goals in their NDCs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Currently, around 30% of oil and gas production comes from offshore wells<\/a>. This number is likely to grow: over 70%<\/a> of new oil and gas discovery, approval and production in the past year was ocean-based. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Campos argues that to really tackle climate change, explicit, time-bound and measurable targets to end offshore drilling are critical. <\/p>\n\n\n\n She cites Indonesia<\/a>. Its NDC vowed to strengthen the protection of ocean carbon sinks but made no commitment to phasing out offshore drilling. In fact, the country is developing<\/a> this sector. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt\u2019s about where your actions really are,\u201d Campos adds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n COP30 host nation Brazil is facing a similar dilemma as Indonesia over its appetite<\/a> to both grow offshore fossil fuels and champion the ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The country has tried to take a leadership role in promoting ocean action, something its leaders had been at pains to stress<\/a> in Bel\u00e9m. Brazil\u2019s NDC<\/a>, released one year ago, mentions protecting coastal ecosystems and expanding offshore wind energy capacity. It states the country has adopted guidelines to \u201cpromote the decarbonisation of oil and natural gas exploration\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But in late October Brazil also permitted its state oil company, Petrobras, to conduct exploratory drilling<\/a> in the sea of the Foz do Amazonas area at the mouth of the Amazon River. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Marinez Scherer, a professor at Brazil\u2019s Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC) and the COP30 special envoy for the ocean, says the ocean emphasis in Brazil\u2019s NDC \u201cis a great step forward\u201d. But she concedes that the approval of Amazon Basin oil exploration \u201ccan be seen as contradictory\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n She adds: \u201cWe have to keep the ocean alive. And there is one way: to stop burning fossil fuels at the level that we do.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n China\u2019s updated NDC, released just ahead of COP30<\/a>, shows the tensions even relatively wealthy countries must contend with when it comes to balancing emissions cuts with maintaining industries and development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Commitments from the world\u2019s largest emitter of greenhouse gases cover a wide range of marine policies, such as protecting blue carbon sinks, expanding offshore wind and other ocean-based renewable energy, developing green infrastructure in new ports, and promoting the use of clean shipping fuels. The government has set an economy-wide emissions-reduction target, but it does not specifically address offshore oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chen Jiliang, a senior researcher at the Beijing-based non-profit environmental think-tank Greenovation Hub, says the plan also underscores measures for adaptation, and for managing the risks that come with climate change. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But he notes that China\u2019s NDC measures largely target short-term risks, particularly coastal hazards such as storms and floods. Less attention was given to addressing longer-term risks, such as developing climate-resilient marine protected areas or fisheries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThese longer-term risks require more research to be determined and demand institutional-level measures,\u201d Chen says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Small island developing states continue to stand at the forefront of championing the ocean at climate COPs. NDCs from these nations represent over 40% of the ocean actions found across all submissions, despite representing just 22% of countries in the analysis, Northrop\u2019s research shows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Campos highlights Vanuatu\u2019s climate plan<\/a>, which was submitted in September. It has extensive, time-bound and concrete ocean-climate targets. Not only does the plan set out tangible goals, she says, but \u201cthey talked about how much it would actually cost them [\u2026] and that helps get the funding\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"Infographic](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/20251128_Blue-carbon-3-key-ecosystems_EdHarrison_DialogueEarth-scaled.png\")
<\/div>\u2018More actions needed on offshore drilling\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Brazil: Leadership under scrutiny<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Protesters](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Protest-at-COP30_Zo-Guimaraes_UN-climate-change_459b16adde_6k.jpg\")
<\/div>China: Ocean goals of the world\u2019s largest emitter <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Small island developing states: Big ambitions and money worries<\/h2>\n\n\n\n