{"id":60112190,"date":"2025-12-05T17:34:07","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T17:34:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60112190"},"modified":"2025-12-05T17:34:19","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T17:34:19","slug":"after-cop30-brazilian-oil-continues-its-rush-towards-the-global-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/after-cop30-brazilian-oil-continues-its-rush-towards-the-global-market\/","title":{"rendered":"After COP30, Brazilian oil continues its rush towards the global market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A decision to approve<\/a> oil exploration off the coast of Brazil weeks before the country hosted the COP30 climate conference signals the country\u2019s intention to increasingly target the international market, despite criticism from environmentalists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the close of the conference in Bel\u00e9m, Brazil committed<\/a> to continuing to pursue a plan to eliminate fossil fuels from global economies. However, activists have claimed that its decision to award the exploration licence to state-owned Petrobras threatens the country\u2019s position as a climate leader, suggesting that it intends to expand its oil frontiers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazilian crude oil exports have grown 132% in the last decade, reaching almost 90 million tonnes in 2024, according to foreign trade data. During this period, China dominated demand: alone, it imported more Brazilian oil than all the other countries in the top 10 combined, according to an analysis by Dialogue Earth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October, Ibama, the federal environmental licensing agency, awarded the licence to explore for oil in Block 59, an area off Brazil\u2019s northern coast, just weeks before COP30 opened. The approval process has dragged on for several years due to concerns about the environmental impact of exploration in the Foz do Amazonas basin, at the mouth of the Amazon River and one of the most biodiverse regions in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Map: Dialogue Earth<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The licence authorises the drilling of an offshore well in Block 59 to assess the presence of oil. If there are commercially viable reserves, Petrobras would have to apply<\/a> for a new licence to begin production. If none are found, new authorisations would be required for additional drilling. However, the company included<\/a> three other potential wells in its original application.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard, its work should unlock the sector\u2019s progress towards a \u201cnew global energy frontier<\/a>\u201d and could expedite licensing for other wells. The area is close to the region where major oil discoveries in neighbouring Guyana<\/a> have been reshaping the country\u2019s economy over the past decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Government officials say exploration is necessary to ensure Brazil\u2019s energy sovereignty, but some observers see it<\/a> as a signal to foreign investors that oil expansion will continue, even in the face of the country\u2019s campaign to slow down the use of fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis expansion is much more focused on the foreign market than on achieving self-sufficiency in production,\u201d said Mahatma Ramos, technical director of the Institute for Strategic Studies on Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels (Ineep), a research entity linked to the Single Federation of Oil Workers, a union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Days after it was approved, eight Brazilian civil society organisations, including environmental network the Climate Observatory, took<\/a> legal action alleging illegalities and technical flaws in the licensing process. The organisations claimed the process had failed to consult local communities, had used outdated data on the threats to biodiversity, and failed to assess its climate impacts. Both the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change<\/a>, to which Ibama is linked, and Petrobras<\/a> stated that the awarding of the licence is the result of a rigorous, five-year environmental analysis. The company has complied with all the established requirements, the organisations said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/div>
Protest signs at a public hearing on oil and gas reserves in the Brazilian equatorial margin, held by a senate environmental commission in Brasilia in 2024. Government agencies and Petrobras have stated that a recent exploration licence was awarded after a rigorous five-year environmental analysis (Image: Geraldo Magela<\/a> \/ Ag\u00eancia Senado<\/a>, CC BY<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Ibama has also imposed 28 conditions<\/a> on Petrobras\u2019 activities in the area, including conducting a further oil spill simulation during the drilling of Block 59, the results of which should be published within a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn the oil spill simulation carried out in August, Petrobras used outdated modelling from 2013, even though modelling from 2024 was already available,\u201d said Suely Ara\u00fajo, public policy coordinator at the Climate Observatory and former president of Ibama. \u201cIf Ibama itself considers that there is a need for a new model, it should not have granted this licence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil for the international market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Petrobras has claimed that if Brazil maintains its current demand for oil and does not incorporate new reserves, the country \u201ccould lose self-sufficiency<\/a>\u201d and would need to import more oil, as early as the beginning of the next decade. Brazil\u2019s crude oil production has now passed more than 4 million barrels a day<\/a>, technically sufficient to cover domestic consumption, though the country lacks the refinery capacity to process all of this, relying on imports to cover some demand for oil products. However, analysis<\/a> by the news website InfoAmazonia suggests that this scenario would only materialise if the country failed to meet its climate target of reducing carbon emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A report<\/a> by the International Institute for Sustainable Development highlighted that 85% of Petrobras\u2019 projects would be economically unviable in a scenario aligned with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels, as established by the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Aerial<\/div>
The recently expanded Abreu e Lima refinery in Pernambuco, in Brazil\u2019s northeast region. Due to capacity constraints, some of the oil the country exports is refined abroad and then re-imported (Image: Ricardo Stuckert \/ Presid\u00eancia da Rep\u00fablica)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, the year with the second-highest production ever recorded, Brazil exported 52%<\/a> of all oil extracted. Some of those exports are refined abroad and then re-imported, but according to Ramos, the recent expansion of Brazilian production is not focused on meeting domestic demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBrazil has greatly expanded its crude oil production, which has allowed it to become an important country in the export market,\u201d said Ramos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil already ranks<\/a> sixth among the world\u2019s largest oil producers, and exploration of the equatorial margin \u2013 which includes the Foz do Amazonas \u2013 could propel the country to fourth place in the next decade, analysts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, foreign companies are ramping up investment<\/a> in Brazilian oil production. At a July auction, 19 blocks<\/a> near the mouth of the Amazon River were awarded, all with the participation of foreign companies, including local subsidiaries of the American companies Chevron \u2013 responsible for one of the largest oil spills in the history of the Ecuadorian Amazon<\/a> \u2013 and ExxonMobil, the main operator in Guyana, as well as the Chinese company CNPC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will lead to more oil money flowing out of the country, Ramos said. \u201cMuch of the technology, employment and income generated from this exploration will not remain in Brazilian territory,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some experts believe that companies are failing to account for the risk of the post-2030 fall in demand for oil projected<\/a> by the International Energy Agency. Even if commercially viable oil reserves are found in Foz do Amazonas, the earliest production would begin is in seven years<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe world is at a point where the new frontiers of the fossil fuel industry are advancing into increasingly difficult-to-access deposits,\u201d said Andr\u00e9s G\u00f3mez, Latin America coordinator for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. \u201cThis means that large investments will be made that will not necessarily bring economic returns, and there is a high risk that companies will end up with stranded assets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exploration in these hard-to-reach areas of the Foz do Amazonas basin would be costly. In its strategic plan<\/a>, Petrobras said it plans to invest USD 3.1 billion in the equatorial margin by 2028, drilling 16 wells in deep and ultra-deep waters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil: an economic and political asset<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Activists claim<\/a> Ibama\u2019s decision to award the licence was made after pressure from high-ranking allies of Brazilian president Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva. The timing of the decision, on the eve of Brazil hosting COP30, was also criticised, with activists branding it a blow to Brazil\u2019s climate leadership<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ibama president Rodrigo Agostinho said the decision was not made as a result of political pressure and that it would have been \u201chypocritical<\/a>\u201d to wait until after the conference to award the licence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite being a voice in favour of ending the use of fossil fuels in Bel\u00e9m, Lula\u2019s administration has allocated<\/a> 100 billion reais (USD 18.8 billion) more in budgets towards oil and natural gas than the government of his more vocally pro-extraction predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

The dispute highlights the contradiction between phasing out oil and gas and the economic realities the country faces. Lula has stated<\/a> that \u201cno country is ready\u201d to give up oil. This year, Brazil accepted<\/a> an invitation, first made in 2023<\/a>, to join OPEC+, a group that brings together allies of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clarissa Lins, founding partner of Catavento, a strategy and sustainability consultancy, said that Brazil\u2019s move is guided primarily by economic interests, not energy security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is very difficult to ask a country considered by the World Bank to be middle-income to give up this economic resource,\u201d she said. \u201cThe oil produced here is highly competitive, and the industry has a relevance that cannot be ignored.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The issue is likely to crop up in next year\u2019s presidential election. \u201cPresident Lula still strongly associates oil with development,\u201d said Ilan Zugman, director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the environmental organisation 350.org. \u201cIn his quest for re-election, he is likely to bring up this issue when talking about jobs, income generation and improving quality of life.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petrobras \u2018discreet\u2019 at COP30<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite its manoeuvres in the weeks leading up to the conference, Petrobras was described as playing a \u201cdiscreet\u201d role at COP30 \u2013 despite a record number<\/a> of fossil fuel lobbyists and representatives attending. Petrobras only sent second-tier employees to the event. \u201cPetrobras has clear influence within the government, with direct access to President Lula and other relevant politicians, but during COP, they behaved very discreetly,\u201d said Zugman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/div>
The Climate March during COP30 brought around 70,000 people to the streets of Bel\u00e9m. Petrobras held two events at the summit, one of which coincided with the protest (Image: Hellen Loures<\/a> \/ Cimi<\/a>, CC BY NC SA<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Petrobras told Dialogue Earth that it \u201cwas present at COP30, as it has been at recent editions, because it recognises the opportunity to discuss sustainable models\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It held two events in Brazil\u2019s official pavilion, in the restricted area where negotiations take place. One of them coincided with the Climate March<\/a>, which brought around 70,000 people to the streets of Bel\u00e9m demanding, among other things, that there be no oil exploration in the Amazon. One expert said this alignment was a \u201ctactical choice\u201d. \u201cThe event took place just as organised civil society was occupying the streets, focusing media attention,\u201d said Renata Prata, environmental analyst at the Arayara International Institute.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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