{"id":60119358,"date":"2026-02-04T16:08:37","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T16:08:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60119358"},"modified":"2026-02-12T15:06:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T15:06:27","slug":"in-graphs-how-extreme-heat-will-affect-urban-health","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/in-graphs-how-extreme-heat-will-affect-urban-health\/","title":{"rendered":"In graphs: How extreme heat will affect urban health"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Every year, around half a million people <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/europe\/news\/item\/01-08-2024-statement--heat-claims-more-than-175-000-lives-annually-in-the-who-european-region--with-numbers-set-to-soar\">die<\/a> from heat-related causes and the health of millions more suffers from heatwaves exacerbated by global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cities are particularly at risk, as temperatures in urban areas are regularly higher than in the surrounding countryside. This heat does not hit all city dwellers equally though, with some especially vulnerable due to age, poverty and pre-existing health conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-did-you-know alignright block--did-you-know\"><p class=\"block--did-you-know__title\">This is a CATCH story<\/p><div class=\"block--did-you-know__content\"><p>This story is part of Dialogue Earth\u2019s work on the Community Adaptations to City Heat (CATCH) project, in partnership with Boston University. The project is funded by Wellcome. All Dialogue Earth content is editorially independent.<br\/><a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/tag\/heat-adaptation\/\">Read more stories from CATCH.<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Research looking at 38 cities, published last year, suggests that in half of them it could take less than a decade for the cumulative number of heat deaths to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-024-82788-8?fromPaywallRec=false\">exceed<\/a> annual deaths from Covid-19 during the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe know what is driving it: fossil-fuel-charged, human-induced climate change. And we know it\u2019s going to get worse,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/sg\/en\/content\/sg\/press-encounter\/2024-07-25\/secretary-generals-press-conference-extreme-heat\">said<\/a> UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres in 2024. \u201cExtreme heat is the new abnormal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is what we know about urban heat, how bad it might get, and what can be done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cities-are-getting-hotter\">Cities are getting hotter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>One way to measure dangerous heat is the number of days per year when the temperature exceeds 35C. Above this threshold, health impacts manifest with worrying frequency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the last three decades, the average number of days above 35C in 43 major global cities <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iied.org\/worlds-major-cities-hit-quarter-more-hot-days-1990s\">has risen<\/a> 26%, with 1,612 such days occurring in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/story\/3576786\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:65vh;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>This number is likely to increase. Data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wri.org\/insights\/future-extreme-heat-cities-data\">shows<\/a> that, at 1.5C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, South Asian cities will experience on average 95 of these very hot days every year. If warming reaches 3C this number will likely increase to 134.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recorded outdoor air temperatures only tell part of the story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWith the way we build now, indoor temperatures are much higher,\u201d explains Kurt Shickman, a senior fellow at the Ross Center for Sustainable Cities, part of the World Resources Institute. \u201cPeople may be experiencing a 32-degree day outside, but they\u2019re living and working and playing and learning in spaces that are far hotter than that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-billions-will-be-exposed-to-extreme-heat\">Billions will be exposed to extreme heat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Complicating matters is the fact that many cities are growing. The UN <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/desa\/around-25-billion-more-people-will-be-living-cities-2050-projects-new-un-report\">predicts<\/a> that two-thirds of humanity will live in urban areas by 2050. That amounts to 2.5 billion more city dwellers globally, 90% of them in Africa and Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This growth will increase the \u201curban heat island\u201d effect which makes cities hotter than the countryside that surrounds them due to waste heat from energy use, lack of vegetation and more heat-absorbing surfaces like concrete. A <a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab4b71\">2019 study<\/a> found that by 2050, urban expansion could result in average summer daytime and nighttime warming of 0.5C to 0.7C, and up to 3C in some cities. Depending on the location, this extra warming is about half, and sometimes two times, as strong as that predicted to be caused by greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even in optimistic future climate scenarios, between 2070 and 2100 more than 3.5 billion people living in cities will be <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fbuil.2022.947496\">subject<\/a> to at least one two-week-long heatwave with a daily average temperature of over 42C on the \u201cheat index\u201d. That is, how hot it feels to the human body when both air temperature and humidity are considered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the worst-case scenario, this could rise to 5 billion by that same period, with Bangladesh, China, Nigeria, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Pakistan most affected. In comparison, over the 1950-2009 period, around 1.2 billion urban dwellers are likely to have experienced this level of heat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/story\/3576791\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:65vh;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-heatwaves-will-last-longer\">Heatwaves will last longer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As well as more heat, city dwellers are also likely to experience heat for longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent modelling work by the World Resources Institute looking at 996 of the world\u2019s largest cities <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wri.org\/insights\/climate-change-effects-cities-15-vs-3-degrees-C\">found<\/a> their longest heatwave each year could last for an average of 16 days in a 1.5C-warmer world. That jumps to 24 days with 3C of warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The researchers behind this study defined a heatwave as three or more consecutive days where temperatures reach or exceed the top 10% of daily high temperatures, determined by data collected over the 40-year period from 1980.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/story\/3576801\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:80vh;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>The lengthening effect varies massively by region, with cities in the Middle East and North Africa potentially facing 36-day longest heatwaves in a 3C world, nearly two weeks longer than they are likely to suffer at 1.5C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-more-people-will-die\">More people will die<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>At a certain point, the human body starts to buckle under extreme heat. The heart and kidneys have to work extra hard to keep your body cool, and they have limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if temperatures don\u2019t reach life-threatening highs, going for extended periods without cooling down can put cumulative stress on the body.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most heatwave deaths are indirect. People typically fall to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(21)01208-3\/fulltext\">existing illnesses<\/a> like heart, lung or kidney disease, made worse by the hot weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Human-caused climate change is increasing the risks. A recent analysis of 854 European cities <a href=\"https:\/\/spiral.imperial.ac.uk\/server\/api\/core\/bitstreams\/4d5b1a8a-c5ed-47fd-894c-f05ae31ae69d\/content\">found<\/a> climate change was responsible for two-thirds of heat deaths last summer, totalling nearly 16,500 people. Put another way, three times more people lost their lives than would have done without climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Modelling looking at the same cities by scientists at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41591-024-03452-2#Fig1\">found<\/a> the expected future rise of heat deaths substantially outnumbers any potential drop in cold deaths from a warmer climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/story\/3576806\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:70vh;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cooling-demand-will-soar\">Cooling demand will soar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In a world of long, blistering hot summers, demand for ways to keep buildings cool will rocket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In its recent work looking at the world\u2019s largest cities, the World Resources Institute (WRI) estimates that at 3C of warming, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wri.org\/insights\/climate-change-effects-cities-15-vs-3-degrees-C\">194 million<\/a> people could need twice their historical cooling demand. This is quantified using \u201ccooling degree days\u201d, which measures the difference, in degrees celsius, between the daily average and a comfortable temperature. For example, if comfortable is set at 21C, as it was in the WRI study, then a 24C day gives you 3 cooling degree days (1 day x 3 degrees).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The overall additional demand would be greatest in India, whose 189 largest cities combined would have 58,873 more cooling degree days per year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/story\/3576809\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:70vh;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Improving access to air conditioning will help, but it may not be a feasible or equitable solution in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As Shickman points out, air conditioners need electricity, and extreme heat often arrives at the same time as other disasters. \u201cAfter a hurricane or tornado, you may not have the power to run your AC.\u201d The cost of that electricity can also be a barrier to access, leading to what some researchers call \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmcc.it\/article\/cooling-poverty\">cooling poverty<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Plus, to build the air conditioning infrastructure at the scale needed will take years, whereas urban heat is an immediate health threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cPassive cooling has to be our primary line of approach for every building,\u201d he asserts. \u201cThere are some [solutions] that can be applied just about everywhere: albedo modification. That is, cool roofs, changing the colour of roofs, walls, pavements, and shade. Those are really applicable in any context, irrespective of climate and water availability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s like a buffet or a smorgasbord. The stuff in the trays is the same for every city, it\u2019s what you put on your plate that\u2019s going to be a little different.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-more-city-trees-are-needed\">More city trees are needed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Reintroducing trees and vegetation is <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/trees-are-natural-acs-for-cities-if-you-plant-the-right-ones\/\">one way to cool cities down<\/a>. Trees naturally lower the air temperature nearby by providing shade and through evapotranspiration, their version of sweating. They can <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forestresearch.gov.uk\/publications\/air-temperature-regulation-by-urban-trees-and-green-infrastructure\/\">reduce<\/a> air temperatures around them by up to 8C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The effect is especially pronounced in tropical, arid and continental climates. Research published in 2024 looked at the cooling effects of urban trees in 110 cities around the globe. In 83% of those with comparable data, the air cooling achieved by planting trees was enough to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-024-01908-4\">lower the average temperature<\/a> during the hottest month to below 26C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But according to the 2025 Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change, at a global level the density of vegetation in cities has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(25)01919-1\/fulltext\">remained largely unchanged<\/a> in the last decade, growing by just 0.2% on average since 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/story\/3574776\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:600px;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>All these numbers paint a sobering picture of a sweltering future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, Shickman offers a note of guarded optimism. Life-saving measures such as cool roofs and tree planting \u201care city transformations that we can make, all with available materials and technologies today\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe are not talking about something we need to innovate out of. We know what to do. We have the tools. They are available in large parts of the world,\u201d he reflects. \u201cIt\u2019s a matter of doing it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Unless otherwise indicated, all the graphs and associated data included in this article have been reproduced with permission from the owners, allowing republishing under <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/republishing\/\"><em>Creative Commons<\/em><\/a><em>. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rising temperatures are already impacting millions of city dwellers. What is happening and what might be done about it?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3513,"featured_media":60119362,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[17827,519,50041595,551,50042413],"hashtags":[],"country":[50003615],"class_list":["post-60119358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-climate-adaptation","tag-climate-impacts","tag-global-heating","tag-health","tag-heat-adaptation","country-world-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>In graphs: How extreme heat will affect urban health | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rising temperatures are already impacting millions of city dwellers. 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