{"id":60122150,"date":"2026-03-04T13:11:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T13:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60122150"},"modified":"2026-03-09T19:54:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T19:54:42","slug":"as-the-gulf-conflict-widens-so-does-its-environmental-footprint","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/nature\/as-the-gulf-conflict-widens-so-does-its-environmental-footprint\/","title":{"rendered":"As the Gulf conflict widens, so does its environmental footprint"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On 28 February, the latest escalation between the US, Israel and Iran moved from threats to open strikes, plunging the Gulf region into crisis. Missiles have hit military and strategic targets, and governments across the region are scrambling as the risk of wider war grows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The immediate costs are evident. Senior figures, military personnel and civilians have been killed. The arc of violence is widening. Missiles and drones streak the skies over the UAE, Bahrain, Lebanon and Kuwait. Families are hunkering in their homes as air defences flare and explosions echo around cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the damage isn\u2019t restricted to people and politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe picture is very concerning. Thus far our monitoring has identified that a wide range of environmentally problematic sites have been targeted by conflict parties, in particular fossil fuel and military facilities,\u201d says Doug Weir, director of the Conflict and Environment Observatory, a UK-based non-profit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experience from past conflicts shows that pollution, contamination and ecological stress can persist long after the missiles stop flying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On 3 March, Weir’s observatory said<\/a> it had identified 120 “incidents of environmental harm” related to the conflict in Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Jordan, Cyprus, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHistory also suggests that those countries in the region with fewer resources and weaker environmental governance will struggle to address conflict-linked harm and the risks that it poses to people and ecosystems,\u201d says Weir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil infrastructure under fire<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Few regions are as closely tied to fossil-fuel production as the Middle East. Energy infrastructure is an inevitable target in times of war, raising the prospect of major spills and pollution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the 1991 Gulf war, hundreds of oil wells were destroyed. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of oil and gas went up in flames. Millions more were leaked, some deliberately in what was widely classified<\/a> as an act of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thirty five years later, Qatar\u2019s state-owned energy firm has suspended<\/a> all LNG production, citing Iranian attacks on its facilities. A major Saudi Arabian oil refinery has been damaged<\/a> by drones being intercepted nearby, according to the country\u2019s official press agency. Oil tankers have already been struck in the Gulf, with at least one crew member reported<\/a> dead. The US president, Donald Trump, has boasted<\/a> of the US sinking several Iranian navy vessels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Any strike \u2013 or accidental damage \u2013 to refineries, storage sites or tankers risks fires that degrade air quality, the contamination of water supplies and harm to fragile marine ecosystems.

Animal populations in the Gulf are already under immense pressure<\/a> from decades of extraction and coastal development, compounded by rising temperatures. Oil spilled in the Gulf during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s has been linked<\/a> to \u201cnearly total annihilation” of its hawksbill population and “a major portion” of its green turtle population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLooking back to the Iran-Iraq War, and the targeting of tankers and production sites, it\u2019s reasonable to be concerned about oil pollution in the coastal and marine environment,\u201d says Weir. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also warned<\/a> of regional risks linked to sites holding nuclear materials. \u201cIn both cases,\u201d Weir adds, \u201cthe region’s capacity to respond to incidents will be limited for the foreseeable future, potentially increasing their severity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Military contamination and nuclear risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The conflict raises concerns about contamination from weapons and nuclear sites in a region still grappling with the chemical legacies of earlier wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Explosions disperse metals and other contaminants that can harm human health. Strikes on military facilities can release additional hazardous substances \u2013 including explosives residues, heavy metals, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and, in the case of rocket and missile sites, toxic propellants. US officials have said Iranian missile facilities have been among the targets. And fires triggered by strikes are likely to worsen air quality in cities already struggling with pollution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Studies have found links between cancer and other health problems and the depleted uranium rounds<\/a> used in Iraq and other conflicts, for example. A 2010 study found<\/a> that 12 years after the Gulf war, oil residues along Saudi Arabia\u2019s coasts remained harmful to bottom-dwelling life, with recovery expected to take decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"a<\/div>
Oil damage to a beach in Saudi Arabia as a result of the 1991 Gulf war (Image: DOD Photo \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s nuclear armament is a major premise of the current iteration of the conflict. Trump has claimed<\/a> a primary objective is to destroy Iran\u2019s ballistic-missile capabilities and ability to develop nuclear weapons. Israel and other Middle Eastern states struck by Iranian counterattacks also host nuclear sites, raising fears of potential radioactive release if facilities were hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of 2 March, no elevated radiation levels had been detected in countries bordering Iran \u201cso far\u201d, said the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi. The agency had \u201cno indication\u201d Iranian nuclear sites had been struck. But, he warned<\/a> that \u201cthe situation today is very concerning. We cannot rule out a possible radiological release with serious consequences, including the necessity to evacuate areas as large or larger than major cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The carbon cost of conflict<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the long term, the conflict may have wider environmental impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Militaries are among the biggest fossil fuel users in the world. The US military is by some accounts the largest institutional emitter<\/a> on the planet. Work on the conflict in Gaza estimated<\/a> that the first 120 days produced more emissions than did 26 individual countries and territories in a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shipping companies are rerouting vessels to avoid the Middle East, sending ships around the tip of Africa rather than risking the Suez canal route through the Red Sea where Iranian-linked forces have attacked shipping in the past. This makes the route significantly longer for ships travelling from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic. Vessels attempting to recover lost time may sail faster, burning more fuel and emitting more carbon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disruption of the Suez canal can push up the carbon footprint of ships by nearly 50%<\/a>, according to a 2024 modelling study. While the UN\u2019s trade and development body UNCTAD suggests<\/a> that a round trip from Singapore to northern Europe would have 70% higher emissions if it went via the Cape of Good Hope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The issue extends into the skies. While many flights have been cancelled due to the closure of Gulf airspace to civilian planes, longer term rerouting may drive up emissions. After the invasion of Ukraine, the closure of Russian airspace to many carriers increased global aviation emissions by 1% in 2023, according to one study<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Gulf conflict has sent oil prices surging, with the Strait of Hormuz \u2013 through which huge amounts of oil travels in tankers \u2013 shut down. In response, oil-producing countries in the OPEC group have said<\/a> they will increase supply to help mitigate the closure of the strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In some ways, the case for renewable energy is being made in real time. \u201cDecentralised systems are harder to manipulate through supply chokepoints. Solar panels, once installed, generate energy locally,” wrote<\/a> Hussein Dia, a researcher on transport and sustainability at Swinburne University of Technology in Australia, in the Conversation. \u201cThe vulnerability shifts from ongoing fuel imports to upfront manufacturing dependence,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pre-existing environmental strain in Iran<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Some Gulf states have invested heavily in environmental science and resilience. Saudi Arabia has plans<\/a> to plant millions of trees by 2030 and protect large areas of its sea. Oman has made a large commitment<\/a> to mangrove restoration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Iran entered this conflict with deep ecological vulnerabilities and limited capacity<\/a> to respond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"View<\/div>
Smog in Tehran on 3 December 2025. The city is regularly declared as one of the world\u2019s most polluted (Image: Aref Taherkenareh \/ dpa \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The country was already struggling with air pollution and water shortages<\/a>. It as a key example of the concept of \u201cwater bankruptcy\u201d, according to work<\/a> done by leading UN expert Kaveh Madani published this year. Madani argues that the word \u201ccrisis\u201d, which means a temporary deviation from the baseline, is insufficient to describe the world\u2019s water systems. These are now chronic, and baseline conditions have been eroded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran has pulled so much water from the ground that it has caused subsidence. Yet usage is still so high that shortages are common and supplies sometimes run out at night in major cities, according to reports<\/a>. Air pollution is thought to cause thousands of deaths<\/a> every year and Tehran is regularly declared one of the world\u2019s most polluted cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some have linked<\/a> these environmental problems \u2013 especially water issues \u2013 to the upswell of popular protest in the autocratic regime in the recent past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current conflict is likely to compound those pressures. Damage to infrastructure, pollution from strikes and constrained state resources could leave environmental recovery low on the list of post-war priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>
Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

A growing body of research suggests that addressing environmental harm after conflict is essential<\/a> to long-term stability. The latest fighting risks not only worsening ecological degradation but weakening the institutions needed to repair it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a region already strained by climate change and resource scarcity \u2013 and in a world bound together by energy markets, shipping lanes and shared ecosystems \u2013 the environmental consequences of this war are already crossing borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Richard Milburn, who researches armed conflict and the environment at King\u2019s College London, believes those consequences and reconstruction efforts must be part of the conversation. But he finds it “highly unlikely” these will occur outside “the environmental sector echo chamber”. He calls this “the enduring challenge for those of us concerned about the environment\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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