{"id":60127683,"date":"2026-04-13T17:56:29","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T16:56:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60127683"},"modified":"2026-04-21T17:41:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T16:41:04","slug":"chinas-air-pollution-control-enters-deep-water-phase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/pollution\/chinas-air-pollution-control-enters-deep-water-phase\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s air pollution control enters &#8216;deep water&#8217; phase"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>China&#8217;s new national air quality standards <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/ywgz\/fgbz\/bz\/bzwb\/dqhjbh\/dqhjzlbz\/202602\/W020260225340726552289.pdf\">set<\/a> in March by the environment ministry require annual fine particulate matter (PM2.5) limits to fall from 35 to 30 micrograms per cubic metre (\u03bcg\/m\u00b3) by 2030, and further to 25 \u03bcg\/m3 after 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Average PM2.5 concentration stood at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/ywdt\/xwfb\/202601\/t20260128_1142783.shtml\">28 \u00b5g\/m\u00b3<\/a> in 2025, within the current national standard of 35 \u00b5g\/m\u00b3, but still six times higher than the World Health Organisation\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/9789240034228\">guideline<\/a>. The revised standards nonetheless bring China closer to international benchmarks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2021-2025, China achieved double-digit PM2.5 reductions nationwide and even larger declines in key northern regions. Yet the central task has shifted from cutting pollution quickly to sustaining improvements. The main emerging challenges are volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, mainly from cars and industry, as well as increased coal use in the chemicals industry and widening regional disparities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With air pollution control now entering what policymakers describe as the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinanews.com\/sh\/2024\/09-25\/10292216.shtml\">deep water<\/a>\u201d stage, further progress will depend less on rapid, large-scale conventional reductions and more on structural changes. This particularly means electrifying heavy industry and the transport sector, supported by a growth in clean power generation and a reduction in coal consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-accordion block--accordion\"><span class=\"block--accordion__title\"><strong>How did China fare on its 2025 air quality targets?<\/strong><\/span><div class=\"block--accordion__content\"><div class=\"block--accordion__content__inner\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th><strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>Target(s)<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>Outcome<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PM2.5 reduction (national)<br><\/td><td>At least 10% reduction from 2020<\/td><td><strong>Achieved<br><\/strong>National average PM2.5 fell 21.1%, from 33.9 \u03bcg\/m\u00b3 to 28.0 \u03bcg\/m\u00b3.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heavy and severe pollution days<br><\/td><td>Less than 1%<\/td><td><strong>Achieved<br><\/strong>Provincial average share fell to 0.9%.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NO\u2093 and VOCs emissions<br><\/td><td>At least 10% reduction from 2020<\/td><td><strong>Partially achieved<br><\/strong>NO\u2093 fell 13% (to 8.87 million tonnes), while VOCs rose 7.9% (to 6.58 million tonnes) in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/hjzl\/sthjzk\/sthjtjnb\/202511\/W020251128751529122742.pdf\">2024<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Key regional PM2.5 reductions<\/td><td>\u2022 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei: 20% reduction<br>\u2022 Fen-Wei Plain: 15% reduction<br>\u2022 Yangtze River Delta: Meet national standard<br>\u2022 Beijing: Keep PM2.5 below 32 \u03bcg\/m\u00b3<\/td><td><strong>Bettered<br><\/strong>\u2022 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei: 36.7% reduction<br>\u2022 Fen-Wei Plain: 42.4% reduction<br>\u2022 Yangtze River Delta: reached 31.7 \u03bcg\/m\u00b3, meeting national standard<br>\u2022 Beijing reached 27 \u03bcg\/m\u00b3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">Data source: Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air analysis based on the annual report on the state of the ecology and environment released by the Ministry of Environment and Ecology. <\/div><br>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>PM2.5 reductions were closely linked to a combination of economic restructuring and rapid clean-energy deployment, rather than to air-pollution controls alone. China\u2019s real-estate sector entered a prolonged downturn, translating into sustained declines in construction-related industrial output. In 2025, production of crude steel, cement and flat glass <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202601\/t20260119_1962329.html\">fell<\/a> by 4.4%, 6.9% and 3.0% respectively, cutting emissions from some of China\u2019s most pollution-intensive sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, fossil-fuel power generation declined by 1% in 2025 due to the rapid growth in clean energy, leading to further reductions in air pollutant emissions from the power sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The achievements are commendable, but greater challenges lie ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-pollution-fell-structurally-but-unevenly\">Pollution fell structurally but unevenly<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Beijing and Shanxi (part of the Fen-Wei Plain) recorded the strongest air quality improvements in both the short and long term. But elsewhere progress has been less even.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2020, the provinces with the highest absolute PM2.5 concentrations were largely in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Xinjiang and other parts of the east coast. Since then, however, the pollution pattern has shifted west and south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PM2.5 levels have risen across parts of central and western China, and pollution rebounded in north-eastern China, Xinjiang and parts of the south. Several southern inland provinces have also moved into the top ten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/28498853\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:120vh;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>These divergences reflect different economic trajectories. In 2025, Beijing and parts of the Fen-Wei Plain saw some of the steepest declines in construction-related industrial output, including cement, crude steel and pig iron, alongside substantial reductions in thermal power generation. While in north-eastern China and Xinjiang, rising PM2.5 levels were likely associated with increased chemical production, steelmaking and thermal power generation. In southern provinces such as Guizhou and Guangxi, expansion in chemicals and metals production has also pushed PM2.5 levels higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-coal-problem-decreased-demand-from-the-power-sector-offset-by-chemicals\">The coal problem: decreased demand from the power sector offset by chemicals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Coal supply increased by 23.8% between <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndrc.gov.cn\/xwdt\/ztzl\/nybzgzzl\/gnjnybz\/202103\/t20210330_1270959.html\">2020<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpnn.com.cn\/news\/kjny\/202601\/t20260126_1862614.html#:~:text=2025%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A8%E5%9B%BD%E7%85%A4%E7%82%AD%E4%BA%A7%E9%87%8F48.3%E4%BA%BF%E5%90%A8%E5%88%9B%E6%96%B0%E9%AB%98\">2025<\/a>, driven by rising power demand, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinamine-safety.gov.cn\/xw\/mkaqjcxw\/202103\/t20210323_381835.shtml\">policy signals<\/a> to expand coal reserve capacity, and support for the development of large coal bases which integrate mining with coal processing and increasingly coal-to-chemical projects. However, coal output growth started to slow down from 2024, to 1%, as clean-energy deployment accelerated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While coal use for power generation has moderated, the chemicals sector has emerged as the fastest-growing source of coal demand. Consumption in the chemicals industry rose by<a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/-Ij5fZFaqxsVwUex4dAinQ\"> 12.1%<\/a> year on year in the first half of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"hide-expand block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Piles-of-coal-sit-near-a-chemical-plant-in-Datong_Ng-Han-Guan_Associated-Press_Alamy_3E6B0DP.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Piles-of-coal-sit-near-a-chemical-plant-in-Datong_Ng-Han-Guan_Associated-Press_Alamy_3E6B0DP-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Piles-of-coal-sit-near-a-chemical-plant-in-Datong_Ng-Han-Guan_Associated-Press_Alamy_3E6B0DP-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Piles-of-coal-sit-near-a-chemical-plant-in-Datong_Ng-Han-Guan_Associated-Press_Alamy_3E6B0DP.jpg 2560w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2560px\" alt=\"Piles of coal sit near a chemical plant \"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">Piles of coal sit near a chemical plant in Datong, Shanxi province (Image: Ng Han Guan \/ Associated Press \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Piles-of-coal-sit-near-a-chemical-plant-in-Datong_Ng-Han-Guan_Associated-Press_Alamy_3E6B0DP.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"2 MB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1707\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2560\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"http:\/\/finance.people.com.cn\/n1\/2025\/1219\/c1004-40628059.html\">policy<\/a> released in December 2025 sets new efficiency and emissions benchmarks for new and selected existing coal projects, including coal-to-chemical projects. This raises technical standards but also potentially promotes coal-to-chemical expansion, with implications for future air pollution and carbon emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"60064185\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>The reduction of coal consumption in the power sector and the steel and cement industries, amid the expansion of coal-to-chemicals, has reshaped the sources of particulate pollution. Between <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/hjzl\/sthjzk\/sthjtjnb\/202202\/W020240806340133694893.pdf\">2020<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/hjzl\/sthjzk\/sthjtjnb\/202511\/W020251128751529122742.pdf\">2024<\/a>, the share of PM2.5 emissions from the power sector declined from 13% to 5%, while emissions from coal mining rose sharply, from 18% to 40%. And absolute PM2.5 emissions from coal mining grew by 62.9%. This points to a growing upstream pollution challenge, even as emissions from traditional downstream sources fell alongside the contraction of the real-estate sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-transport-and-vocs-the-weakest-link\">Transport and VOCs: The weakest link<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While industrial emission cuts drove down a number of air pollutants, progress in the transport sector has been more mixed. A group of even less visible pollutants continued to rise, signalling the hidden challenge to further improve air quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>VOCs emissions rose by 7.9% between 2020 and 2024, driven primarily by growth in transport-related emissions and continued increases from industrial sources, exposing a critical weakness in the current policy mix. In 2024, hydrocarbons from gasoline vehicles accounted for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/hjzl\/sthjzk\/ydyhjgl\/202512\/W020251203577003736659.pdf\">84.5%<\/a> of total vehicle-related VOC emissions, underlining the central role of gasoline vehicle control and electrification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gasoline vehicles are now the <a href=\"https:\/\/publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/repository\/handle\/JRC135718?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">dominant<\/a> source of transport-related VOCs, while diesel vehicles remain a major source of nitrous oxides and particulate matter. Plug-in hybrid vehicles operating with depleted batteries exhibit emissions profiles similar to conventional gasoline cars, limiting their benefits for VOC control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"60123066\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>By 2025, China\u2019s new-energy vehicle stock had expanded to around 44 million vehicles, and such vehicles accounted for more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news.cn\/fortune\/20260114\/cbbd861081c349d8ae238167ca418fa3\/c.html\">half<\/a> of new car sales. Yet they still represented only about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news.cn\/20260126\/62f6b9393e264b9ebef0019a3efc4557\/c.html\">12%<\/a> of all vehicles on the road, meaning that the emissions profile of the transport sector continues to be shaped primarily by gasoline vehicles. VOCs are also key precursors of secondary PM2.5. So weak VOC control increasingly undermines progress on both of China\u2019s main air pollutants \u2013 PM2.5 and VOCs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Industrial VOC emissions rose by 2.4% from 2020 to 2024, driven mainly by expansion in the chemicals sector. However, controls are expected to be strengthened going forward by recent policy interventions. These include ultra-low emission <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/xxgk2018\/xxgk\/xxgk03\/202401\/W020240119512651019358.pdf\">standards<\/a> for the coking industry, issued in late 2024, and pilot VOC <a href=\"http:\/\/www.npc.gov.cn\/npc\/c2\/c30834\/202511\/t20251104_449318.html\">taxation<\/a>, authorised in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As VOC control has emerged as one of the clearest unresolved challenges, further progress will depend on the continued scaling up of electric vehicles to change the structure of the vehicle fleet, alongside tighter regulation of VOC-intensive industrial activities, particularly in the chemicals sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-deeper-structural-reductions\">Deeper structural reductions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s air quality gains were driven mainly by structural economic shifts, notably the downturn in construction-related heavy industry and the rapid expansion of clean energy. As overall emissions decline, the focus of air quality management is shifting toward how remaining sources are addressed and how reductions are sustained. With pollution trends diverging across regions, particularly where industrial activity is expanding, meeting the new air quality standards will depend on locking air pollution control into the next phase of structural change, from continued coal phase-down to deeper electrification in sectors such as chemicals and steel, and cleaner development of emerging industries, including vehicles and clean energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Together, these trends indicate that future air quality gains will depend less on short-term measures and more on embedding cleaner energy and electrification into China\u2019s development model. How effectively coal is phased out, and how rapidly renewables are deployed to support both electricity supply and industrial demand, will be central to determining whether improvements can be consolidated as the new standards come into force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>A note on data sources:<\/strong><\/em><br><em>Measured air quality data is compiled from China\u2019s national real-time ambient air quality information platform and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment\u2019s monthly and annual reports. Weather-adjusted air quality indicators are produced using the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air\u2019s de-weathering algorithm. Data on industrial output and power generation are drawn from publicly available Chinese government sources.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Now the main challenges lie in regional disparities, increased coal-chemical use, and VOC emissions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4075,"featured_media":60127720,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[760],"tags":[14274,520,17073,580,14061],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000110],"class_list":["post-60127683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pollution","tag-air-pollution","tag-coal","tag-energy-transition","tag-policy","tag-transport","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>China\u2019s air pollution control enters &#039;deep water&#039; 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