{"id":60137191,"date":"2026-06-10T17:01:04","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T16:01:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60137191"},"modified":"2026-06-11T10:51:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T09:51:20","slug":"fishers-live-in-fear-as-looming-el-nino-and-fuel-crisis-pile-on-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/ocean\/fishers-live-in-fear-as-looming-el-nino-and-fuel-crisis-pile-on-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Fishers live in fear as looming El Ni\u00f1o and fuel crisis pile on pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Fishers around the Pacific are bracing for a potentially huge El Ni\u00f1o, which would pile pressure on an industry already struggling with surging fuel prices due to the conflict in the Gulf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is a naturally occurring <a href=\"https:\/\/ncas.ac.uk\/el-nino-explained-global-weather-uk-impacts-and-climate-change\/\">weather pattern<\/a> which leads to higher surface water temperatures in much of the Pacific and disrupts fishing as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmel.noaa.gov\/elnino\/fish-distribution\">animals move<\/a> to find more comfortable waters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said there is an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/lanina\/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf\">82% chance<\/a> of El Ni\u00f1o emerging between May and July. Other scientists have raised the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/resources\/idt-54f4e985-a7fb-48b2-8246-f3be0d699402\">possibility<\/a> it could be an extra-strong super El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>World Meteorological Society secretary-general Celeste Saulo <a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/content\/launch-of-wmo-ell-nino-la-nina-bulletin-june-august-2026\">warned<\/a> this month that a strong El Ni\u00f1o would \u201cexacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-accordion block--accordion\"><span class=\"block--accordion__title\">El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a<\/span><div class=\"block--accordion__content\"><div class=\"block--accordion__content__inner\">\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is a climate pattern in which the surface water of the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean warms to significantly above average. This affects rainfall patterns and weather across the world, raising temperatures globally for its duration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is part of a phenomenon called the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (Enso). El Ni\u00f1o events do not occur on a regular schedule, but on average appear every two to seven years. The opposite, cooler phase is called La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During La Ni\u00f1a, cooler-than-average sea temperatures are experienced in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Like El Ni\u00f1o, it affects patterns of rainfall and atmospheric pressure worldwide.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The pending weather will exacerbate the issue of oil prices, which have <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/commodity\/crude-oil\">risen<\/a> by more than 25% since disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, following United States and Israeli attacks on Iran. This has been particularly damaging for those fishers who use large amounts of fuel to get their boats to and from fishing grounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Peru and the Philippines, Dialogue Earth found that these issues are exacerbating deep-seated existing issues for some of the world\u2019s most economically precarious people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-peru-fuelling-problems\">Peru: Fuelling problems<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In Tumbes, close to Peru\u2019s border with Ecuador, Miguel Mart\u00ednez has kept his vessel stranded on the beach for a year. \u201cIt is not profitable to go out fishing,\u201d says the president of the Regional Federation of Selective Artisanal Fishing Organizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When local fishers do head out to sea, he says, their nets often return filled with purple swimming crabs (<em>Euphylax dovii<\/em>) which are attracted by warming waters but have no commercial value. He says he used to haul in 100 to 150 kilos of fish on a trip but now catches only half that on average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t know who to turn to,\u201d he says. \u201cWith the scarcity of species on our coast, we don&#8217;t want to invest in fuel because we barely cover costs as it is.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"40094195\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>War between Iran, Israel and the US triggered a huge spike in fuel prices in his country. For the nearly 96,000 artisanal fishers in Peru, the impact has been worse because they do not buy at gas stations. They buy from <em>chatas<\/em> (supply barges) which do not receive government subsidies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fuel used to cost 14 soles (USD 4) a gallon, says Elsa Vega, a fisher, shipowner, and president of the National Society of Artisanal Fishing. Now, she tells Dialogue Earth, the cost is between 21 and 25 soles. \u201cNobody controls [the supply barges],\u201d she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A vessel heading out into the open sea in search of mahi-mahi can use between 1,000 to 1,500 gallons, Vega says, with no increase in fish prices to counteract the soaring fuel costs. Many fishers have seen profits fall by 40%, she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In February, Peru\u2019s Commission for the National Study of the El Ni\u00f1o Phenomenon (Enfen) raised the alarm over a coastal El Ni\u00f1o, projected to extend until <a href=\"https:\/\/enfen.imarpe.gob.pe\/download\/comunicado-oficial-enfen-n-09-2026\/\">February 2027<\/a> and reach moderate intensity between May and August of this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Luis V\u00e1squez Espinoza, spokesperson for Enfen and expert on oceanography and climate change at the Peruvian Sea Institute, says when the sea warms, commercially important fish such as anchovies seek more temperate parts of the ocean either nearer the coast or deeper. But Peruvian regulations prohibit catches in shallow waters while deeper waters are far more challenging and expensive to fish, making fishing less viable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"hide-expand block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/fishing-boats-bay-of-Chimbote_Peru_OCEANA_Andre-Baertschi.jpeg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/fishing-boats-bay-of-Chimbote_Peru_OCEANA_Andre-Baertschi-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/fishing-boats-bay-of-Chimbote_Peru_OCEANA_Andre-Baertschi-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/fishing-boats-bay-of-Chimbote_Peru_OCEANA_Andre-Baertschi.jpeg 2560w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2560px\" alt=\"fishing boats in bay\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">Peru\u2019s national fleet of artisanal vessels has increased 29% in a decade, meanwhile incomes keep falling. These vessels are moored in Chimbote bay, northern Peru (Image: Andre Baertschi \/ Oceana)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/fishing-boats-bay-of-Chimbote_Peru_OCEANA_Andre-Baertschi.jpeg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"2 MB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1707\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2560\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite these hardships, the number of artisanal vessels in Peru <a href=\"https:\/\/peru.oceana.org\/informes\/crecimiento-flota-pesquera-artesanal\/\">grew<\/a> from nearly 18,000 in 2015 to over 23,000 in 2023 \u2013 a 29% increase in a decade, according to the NGO Oceana, squeezing incomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe have a serious problem with the size of the fleet,\u201d warns Juan Carlos Sueiro, fisheries director for Oceana in Peru. \u201cWith more and more vessels, average incomes are lower.\u201d Many fishers are barely breaking even, he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-philippines-it-was-better-during-covid\">The Philippines: \u2018It was better during Covid\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other side of the Pacific Ocean, more than 50% of Philippine fishers have stopped working since the Gulf conflict as diesel prices have doubled, says Fernando Hicap, chairperson of Pamalakaya National Federation of Small Fisherfolk Organisations in the Philippines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt was better during Covid, because at least during Covid we could go to sea. The problem then was that consumers couldn\u2019t buy fish because of the quarantine, but at least we had a catch,\u201d says Hicap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some have sold their boats to pay off debts, he says. The rest are bracing for the coming of El Ni\u00f1o. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Philippines, El Ni\u00f1o can weaken the north-east monsoon. This prevailing wind drives an ocean process called upwelling which brings cold, nutrient-rich deep water to the surface, stimulating plankton growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"hide-expand block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Lamparo-fishing-boat_Alamy_2T3552A-scaled.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Lamparo-fishing-boat_Alamy_2T3552A-768x503.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Lamparo-fishing-boat_Alamy_2T3552A-1024x671.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Lamparo-fishing-boat_Alamy_2T3552A-scaled.jpg 2560w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2560px\" alt=\"fishing boat on sea near hilly land\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">More than half of the fishers in Palawan province have stopped working, and some have even sold their boats, since diesel prices doubled in the Philippines (Image: Kevin Izorce \/ Alamy)\u00a0\u00a0<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Lamparo-fishing-boat_Alamy_2T3552A-scaled.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"749 KB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1678\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2560\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Less upwelling can reduce food for small pelagic fish such as sardines and anchovies, decreasing productivity in fishing grounds, says Charina Lyn Amedo-Repollo, a researcher at the University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute. This can mean less fish for fishers, longer fishing trips, and higher fuel costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority <a href=\"https:\/\/psa.gov.ph\/sites\/default\/files\/fsd\/Fisheries%20Situation%20Report%20for%20Major%20Species,%20April%20to%20June%202024.pdf?__cf_chl_tk=OZ1.A_KNwLFMcRl23B7dD96iHzf_l11bEUyDkxmueDg-1781080057-1.0.1.1-Mg7wDvjf13gF5p9zKFCap84g1Q37hUhcAb4cqg8uBRo\">show<\/a> that total fisheries production between April and June 2024, during the previous El Ni\u00f1o, declined 6.2% year-on-year, while seaweed production, a big part of the blue economy in the Philippines, declined by 26%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe core issue is how many fishers would experience income instability,\u201d says conservationist Candeze Mongaya, who previously worked with the NGOs Rare and Oceana Philippines. \u201cWe have numerical data in terms of how much the fishers have lost, but there are also indirect losses in the context of their day-to-day expenses.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Small-scale fishers have been offered a 3,000 peso (USD 49) subsidy as a response to the rising fuel prices. But several told Dialogue Earth they need long-term solutions, not short-term, sticking plaster fixes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"60123609\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>This could include government help for fishers to diversify their work, so they have other sources of income, says Mongaya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hicap would like to see wider efforts to restore marine environments and stop the destruction of fish habitats like mangroves and reefs to sustain the catches of the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keeping ecosystems healthier makes them more resilient to climate change and extreme events, and good management can increase fisheries catches, say scientists, helping to mitigate the impact of shocks like El Ni\u00f1o on those who rely on them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe shouldn\u2019t be constructing more coastal roads; they ruin mangroves and coral reefs, and they cause erosion,\u201d he says. \u201cAs long as those destructive projects continue, small fishers will be experiencing the effects of El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"60129379\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>In Peru too, there is a feeling that these latest crises show the importance of building more resilience in the fishing sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe talk about sustainability,\u201d says Vega. \u201cBut this activity also has to be sustainable for those of us who depend on it. The sea cannot turn into a graveyard of ships.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources spokesperson Nazario Briguera said&nbsp; the agency will educate fishers and has activated a special <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pna.gov.ph\/articles\/1275507\">El Ni\u00f1o Task Force<\/a> to work on safeguarding food production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Peru\u2019s Ministry of Production did not respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From the Philippines to Peru a vital industry already reeling from multiple problems faces devastation from skyrocketing fuel prices and super-charged Pacific warming <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3817,"featured_media":60137556,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50039901],"tags":[519,545,50041624],"hashtags":[],"country":[50002601,50040715],"class_list":["post-60137191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ocean","tag-climate-impacts","tag-fisheries","tag-labour","country-peru","country-philippines"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Fishers live in fear as looming El Ni\u00f1o and fuel crisis pile on pressure | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"From the Philippines to Peru a vital industry already reeling from multiple problems faces devastation from skyrocketing fuel prices and super-charged Pacific 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