{"id":60139035,"date":"2026-06-19T17:52:29","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T16:52:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?post_type=opinion&p=60139035"},"modified":"2026-06-23T17:31:38","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T16:31:38","slug":"colombia-elections-a-litmus-test-for-fossil-fuel-phaseout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/colombia-elections-a-litmus-test-for-fossil-fuel-phaseout\/","title":{"rendered":"Colombia elections: A litmus test for fossil fuel phaseout"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Until 2024, the football club of Barrancabermeja, a medium-sized city in central Colombia, was called Alianza Petrolera FC. Its nicknames included the Oilmen and the Refiners. The club rebranded to Alianza FC that year, dropping references to oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barrancabermeja, however, retains its deep connection to black gold. For more than 100 years it has been home to the biggest oil refinery in the country, where as much as 65%<\/a> of Colombia\u2019s fuel is processed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a fascinating city. Truly beautiful, with its network of rivers and lakes populated by wildlife including reclusive manatees. But it is impossible to escape the spectre of oil: the refinery dominates Barrancabermeja\u2019s skyline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like in other Latin American countries, the state oil company Ecopetrol is a source of national pride in Colombia, and oil and gas is seen as central to prosperity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colombia\u2019s outgoing president Gustavo Petro has been attempting to change that mindset. Upon taking office in 2022, he paused<\/a> new oil and gas licenses. Petro has positioned the country as a leader in the anti-fossil-fuel movement by, for example, creating<\/a> zones in which mining and hydrocarbon enterprise are banned. And in April, the northern coastal city of Santa Marta hosted the first Transition Away<\/a> conference. The international summit was an attempt to build a \u201ccoalition of the willing\u201d: nations that agree on the need to ditch oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petro has had a difficult presidency, with low approval ratings. It has been dragged down by \u2013 among other things \u2013 ultimately unsuccessful efforts to negotiate with the country\u2019s armed groups. As such, his anti-fossil policies are now under threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colombians will vote for his successor this weekend. Polls show<\/a> a likely victory for Abelardo de la Espriella, a colourful figure<\/a> who found riches through a range of companies including clothing, wine and rum. The outspoken lawyer and business owner has campaigned on pro-fracking messages and generally advocates for fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A victory for the brash businessman would put a dent in Colombia\u2019s fossil fuel phaseout. It would also cast a shadow over the progress made at Transition Away<\/a>. Petro\u2019s struggle to win the information war over fossil fuels, even after hosting a major new international conference dedicated to phasing them out, underlines just how challenging this is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"ballot<\/div>
Ballot paper for the first round of the Colombian elections, held on 31 May. In the runoff are candidates Iv\u00e1n Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, who have opposing positions on fracking and oil and gas licences (Image: Santiago Chimbaco \/ Imago \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

A false dawn?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As well as the oil and gas moratorium, Petro also planned for Ecopetrol to diversify its activities, including into renewables. In 2024, more than 40% of the company\u2019s budget was dedicated<\/a> to the energy transition; the share of contemporary renewable technology capacity in Colombia grew<\/a> to 15% during his presidency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think we have to applaud Petro for his leadership on this agenda,\u201d says Gustavo Pinheiro, an analyst at the energy think-tank E3G. \u201cHe showed you can walk the talk and lead by example.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, while new fossil fuel exploration was paused, this did not impact the 381<\/a> production contracts already in effect. Petro\u2019s attempts to outlaw fracking<\/a>, meanwhile, were unsuccessful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, many of the Petro administration\u2019s environmental achievements were carried out<\/a> by decree, meaning a future administration could easily unravel them. De la Espriella would surely aim to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his campaign, De la Espriella has advocated for fracking and restarting exploration for hydrocarbons. He has called<\/a> energy independence a national security issue and suggested scepticism of an accelerated transition: \u201cA serious country doesn\u2019t give up its gas on an ideological whim.\u201d This would mean \u201cdeveloping discovered fields more quickly\u201d and \u201cunblocking\u201d production. In the first round of voting on 31 May, he led<\/a> with more than 43% of the vote. This puts him ahead of Ivan Cepeda, the candidate for Petro\u2019s Historic Pact party, who received 41%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"oil<\/div>
An oil spill near Barrancabermeja in 2018. A fisher working in the rivers around the city says she fears for the impact of oil exploration on fish stocks following the election (Image: Natalia Ortiz Mantilla \/ dpa \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The Barrancabermeja problem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Petro\u2019s attempts to wean the country off fossil fuels were met with opposition from the sector. According to the country\u2019s main oil workers\u2019 union, Ecopetrol supports<\/a> some 100,000 jobs in the country and the oil sector accounts for nearly 6% of Colombia\u2019s GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Colombian public was also sceptical. A 2025 survey<\/a> of almost 2,500 adults across 141 cities and municipalities found<\/a> that 78% agreed the oil and gas industry was necessary to finance the state\u2019s social and public investment programmes. Eighty percent considered oil to be a positive industry for Colombia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe idea of the transition was probably the most attacked [policy] from the beginning of Petro\u2019s government,\u201d says Colombia\u2019s Andr\u00e9s G\u00f3mez, head of advocacy for Latin America at the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pinheiro adds that they received a poor response from the markets: \u201cMarkets were shaking in the short term. But then everything returned to normality as it usually does, and it was not the end of the world. That\u2019s one of the challenges we have to overcome.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic concerns have been seized upon by De la Espriella. Echoing other leaders in the region and globally, he says doubling down on oil and gas is the answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>
Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

The argument that oil and gas is a route to riches remains compelling for many. But the reality is that fossil fuels continue to require government subsidies<\/a> to remain profitable, while the costs of developing renewable energy is falling rapidly. As Pinheiro says: \u201cThe transition is already happening in the real economy. The price point of wind and solar is so competitive everywhere you look in Latin America.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While getting that message across to voters is a challenge, there are signs that those most affected by extraction are also likely to oppose further exploration. In Barrancabermeja, nearly 60% of voters in the election\u2019s first round backed<\/a> Cepeda, who has pledged to continue Petro\u2019s fossil fuel policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yuly Vel\u00e1squez, a fisher working in the rivers around Barrancabermeja, says she fears for the impact of oil exploration on fish stocks following the election: \u201cWe are worried by the shamelessness of [right-wing politicians], who say development is ending. Hydraulic fracturing is what would generate more hunger and displacement.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The future of Transition Away<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Transition Away conference, which drew attendees from 57 countries<\/a>, was borne out of frustration with the failure of successive UN climate summits to reach consensus on phasing out fossil fuels. Although the UN\u2019s 2023 climate summit, COP28 in Dubai, led to an agreement<\/a> for the \u201cbeginning of the end\u201d of the fossil fuel era, subsequent meetings have failed to make progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Transition Away conference exists outside of a UN process that aims for unanimous agreement. Instead, Transition Away aims to cultivate a union of countries that have already decided to move away from fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it was never intended that the first Transition Away conference would result in binding commitments, attending countries expressed a joint intention to draw up national \u201croadmaps\u201d for weakening fossil fuel reliance. It also established an independent scientific committee that will assist countries in this endeavour. Tuvalu will host<\/a> the next conference in 2027, supported by Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>
Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

If Colombia elects De la Espriella and returns to oil and gas extraction, it will be \u201cdifficult\u201d for the movement, G\u00f3mez acknowledges \u2013 but not a terminal blow: \u201cNow we have Ireland and Tuvalu [leading] the Santa Marta process and that\u2019s something really helpful. [Colombia] did a really good job for movement and there is this crack in the system. There is a real pathway that we as a global movement have to use.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Colombia, environmentalists applaud the leadership the country has shown in the push to phase out fossil fuels. Many are now waiting anxiously to discover what comes next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Colombian environmentalists like Yuvelis Morales Blanco of Puerto Wilches \u2013 a winner<\/a> of this year\u2019s Goldman Environmental Prize for her work opposing fracking \u2013 are deeply worried by De la Espriella\u2019s fossil fuels rhetoric. She has faced threats in response to her campaigning. \u201cIt seems to me extremely irresponsible and disrespectful to the communities that such an important issue is taken with such lightness,\u201d she says. \u201cTo us, conversations about fracking have almost cost us our lives.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Far-right firebrand Abelardo de la Espriella wants to double down on fossil fuels and extinguish a new global movement born in Colombia<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000868,"featured_media":60139073,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[50029993,17073,547,50042420],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000025],"class_list":["post-60139035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-elections","tag-energy-transition","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-opinion","country-colombia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nColombia elections: A litmus test for fossil fuel phaseout | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Far-right firebrand Abelardo de la Espriella wants to double down on fossil fuels and extinguish a new global movement born in Colombia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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