{"id":60149037,"date":"2026-08-27T18:23:24","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T17:23:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60149037"},"modified":"2026-08-27T18:23:35","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T17:23:35","slug":"could-us-bullying-push-latin-america-towards-chinas-transition-pipeline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/could-us-bullying-push-latin-america-towards-chinas-transition-pipeline\/","title":{"rendered":"Could US bullying push Latin America towards China\u2019s transition pipeline?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In early August, Donald Trump\u2019s state department posted<\/a> a five-minute film on social media. The clip details what the US foreign policy office calls one of the \u201cboldest diplomatic statements in American history\u201d \u2013 the 1823 Monroe doctrine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monroe doctrine was a response to the threat of recolonisation of the Americas by European powers. The then-youthful United States, keen to see off this threat, declared the western hemisphere would be free of imperial conquest. This doctrine later developed into a broad statement that the US was \u201cpractically sovereign\u201d in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The era of European empires has waned. But, as the state department\u2019s video makes clear, President Trump\u2019s administration is unabashed about declaring itself dominant over its Latin neighbours. What is at the heart of this resurgence of 19th century foreign policy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has been quietly gaining ground in Latin America for decades, establishing<\/a> itself as the region\u2019s second-largest trading partner and top creditor. Chinese companies are behind lithium mines<\/a> in Chile and Argentina and megaports in Peru<\/a>, while China\u2019s government is pushing a transcontinental railway<\/a> to link it all together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both China and the US aim to be energy powerhouses, and the resulting clash over Latin America indicates two different approaches. Chinese companies have invested in lithium and other minerals central to the energy transition. Meanwhile, the Trump administration\u2019s ousting of Venezuela\u2019s President Maduro in January was nakedly linked<\/a> to the country\u2019s bountiful oil reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The kidnapping of a sitting head of state may be seen as a warning to Latin America: the US is still the sovereign here. But is that still true? And could US strong-arming push Latin America away, and into the arms of Chinese investors?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u2018Donroe\u2019 doctrine<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The White House national security strategy, published<\/a> in November 2025, establishes a desire for a western hemisphere \u201cfree of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets\u201d. Unveiling the document last year, Trump told the world\u2019s press that \u201cAmerican dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again.\u201d He cited the Monroe doctrine directly, attaching a \u201cTrump corollary\u201d for the 21st century \u2013 a so-called \u201cDonroe\u201c doctrine<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe [Monroe] doctrine has found its latest champion in Donald Trump,\u201d says the US ambassador to Panama Kevin Marino Cabrera, who narrates the state department video. It is fitting that he was chosen to deliver Trump\u2019s message. Ever since Panama achieved independence from Colombia in 1903, the US has retained a strong hold<\/a> over its politics. Until 1999, it even retained sovereignty<\/a> over a buffer zone on either side of the Panama canal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In 1997, the Hong Kong company CK Hutchison won contracts to manage the ports at either end of the nautical thoroughfare. This year, those contracts became the centre of a political firestorm after Panama\u2019s supreme court ruled<\/a> them unconstitutional. Trump had previously claimed China was \u201coperating\u201d the canal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such pressure has been building across the continent. In June, Chile scrapped<\/a> plans to link its coast to Shanghai via an undersea cable to enable data traffic, after the US raised concerns that the cables could also have a military function.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Argentina, a dispute broke out this August after the US embassy in Buenos Aires threatened<\/a> to revoke US visas for executives of an Argentine electricity company, after they brokered a deal with the Chinese company Huawei. This was despite President Javier Milei being one of Trump\u2019s strongest Latin American cheerleaders and ideologically aligned with the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s aggressive foreign policy has been a step change to that of his recent predecessors. Margaret Myers, managing director of John Hopkins University\u2019s Institute for America, China and the Future of Global Affairs, says the narrative during President Obama\u2019s US administration was that anything which benefitted Latin America was good for the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This softer approach, which enabled Chinese investment in South and Central America to proliferate, has been consigned to history as far as Trump is concerned. \u201cYou don\u2019t hear that narrative anymore,\u201d Myers says. \u201cNow the narrative is that China will take advantage and if you engage too much there will be negative implications.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\"Donal<\/div>
El Salvador\u2019s President Nayib Bukele visiting the White House in April 2025. The Central American leader is one of Trump\u2019s key allies in the region (Image: Casa Presidencial de El Salvador<\/a> \/ Flickr<\/a>, PDM<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"Nayib<\/div>
Despite the close relationship he has built with the US, Bukele has taken a pragmatic approach to El Salvador\u2019s ties to China and is not closing the door to Chinese investments (Image: Casa Presidencial de El Salvador<\/a> \/ Flickr<\/a>, PDM<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

The Chinese offer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

China has reacted angrily to the stream of diplomatic rapprochements and threats coming from the Trump White House. In August, China\u2019s ambassador to Chile, Niu Qingbao, accused<\/a> the US of \u201ccoercive diplomacy\u201d and \u201cshowing no regard for sovereignty\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese government officials have also argued<\/a> that China\u2019s overseas development model is based on cooperation and mutual benefit, and on strengthening partnerships between countries of the Global South. The word \u201ccooperation\u201d is used 174 times in its most recent Latin America policy document<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country\u2019s companies \u2013 many linked to, if not backed by, the state \u2013 have provided financing for a range of important infrastructure, the most notable of which is the port of Chancay<\/a>, 80 km north of the Peruvian capital Lima. The Chinese shipping conglomerate COSCO owns a 60% stake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Alice Hill, a former White House energy adviser and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says China\u2019s success has been based on acting as a reliable partner, as a contrast to Trump: \u201cIt\u2019s a little like a marriage. If your trusted partner has cheated on you, it\u2019s hard to overcome. We [the US] and our word hasn\u2019t proven reliable. We cut off aid and we\u2019ve disparaged our allies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How is the region responding?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As the international relations analyst Fernanda Magnotta pointed out in a recent post<\/a> for Americas Quarterly, such aggressive use of US pressure makes alternative partners more <\/em>appealing, not less. It also underlines the idea that taking sides is futile: \u201cBy trying to make Latin America choose, Washington will teach its governments why they should never have to.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil and the US have come to diplomatic loggerheads as the former approaches its election in October. Earlier this month, the visa of Brazil\u2019s ambassador to Washington was revoked<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\"Dina<\/div>
China\u2019s President Xi Jinping alongside Peru\u2019s then-president Dina Boluarte, during a November 2024 trip to Peru that included the port of Chancay inauguration (Image: Presidencia del Per\u00fa<\/a> \/ Flickr<\/a>, CC BY NC SA<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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\"Daniel<\/div>
Ecuador\u2019s President Daniel Noboa with President Xi during his state visit to China, 18 August 2026 (Image: Isaac Castillo<\/a> \/ Presidencia de la Rep\u00fablica del Ecuador<\/a>, PDM<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the case of Argentina suggests that countries are driven more by necessity than ideological purity when it comes to taking geopolitical sides. As much as Milei might like to strike up an unbreakable friendship with the US president, economic realities in his country have led him to extend<\/a> a multimillion-dollar currency swap with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New diplomatic ties with China are forming all the time. Just last week, the Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa met<\/a> his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing as part of a state visit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018The transition is being made in China\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

An important factor is that only China currently has the technology and expertise when it comes to energy transition technologies. And as major producers of the critical minerals that underpin those technologies, from lithium and copper to nickel and cobalt, Latin American countries have little choice but to export to China. In 2025, Chile sold<\/a> more than half of its copper to China and 70% of its lithium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Gustavo Pinheiro, an analyst at the energy think-tank E3G, says this transition is a \u201conce in a lifetime opportunity\u201d for Latin American development. \u201cThe transition is being made in China; it\u2019s being made in technology,\u201d he adds. The US, meanwhile, has \u201cdoubled down\u201d on fossil fuels, according to Hill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it is not just at the government level that US aggression is pushing the region away. Polling published<\/a> in July by the Pew Research Center suggests that views of China are now more positive in the region than views of the US; people are more likely to say that the US interferes in other countries\u2019 affairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pinheiro points out that there is a long history of US aggression, which is well understood in the region: \u201cThe US has 200 years of a terrible track record as an ally. They have proven again and again how unreliable [they are].\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Trump believes he can bully his allies into submission, it appears that in Latin America he may be mistaken.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The \u2018Trump corollary\u2019 to the Monroe doctrine has taken US foreign policy back to the 1800s and risks defeat in the transition minerals race<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000868,"featured_media":60149058,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[17073,50040720],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020,50000021,20000110,50002594,50006305,50002601,50040700,50002604],"class_list":["post-60149037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-energy-transition","tag-geopolitics","country-argentina","country-brazil","country-china","country-ecuador","country-el-salvador","country-peru","country-united-states-of-america","country-venezuela"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCould US bullying push Latin America towards China\u2019s transition pipeline? | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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