{"id":60149583,"date":"2026-09-02T07:00:44","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T06:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60149583"},"modified":"2026-09-02T07:00:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T06:00:54","slug":"qa-there-was-a-gap-between-alert-and-action-in-nepal-floods","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/qa-there-was-a-gap-between-alert-and-action-in-nepal-floods\/","title":{"rendered":"Q&A: \u2018There was a gap between alert and action\u2019 in Nepal floods"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Following the devastating floods that swept through Nepal\u2019s Rasuwa district on 26 August, over 1,000 people have been confirmed dead<\/a> as of Tuesday, with 4,000 still missing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists are still piecing together what set off the tsunami-like floods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A preliminary assessment<\/a> by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and partners suggested an ice-rock avalanche<\/a> was a possible trigger. But more recent evidence points to a rock-ice avalanche, involving more rock than ice, notes Saswata Sanyal<\/a>, ICIMOD\u2019s intervention manager for disaster risk reduction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the specific trigger of the floods cannot yet be attributed to climate change, there is growing evidence that warming is altering the physical conditions of the broader Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. A landmark report<\/a> released by ICIMOD in 2023 said that glaciers, snow and permafrost in the HKH are undergoing unprecedented and largely irreversible changes, primarily driven by climate change. It also highlighted increasing warming at higher elevations, accelerated glacier melting, permafrost thaw, declining snow cover and increasingly erratic snowfall patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

An ICIMOD assessment<\/a> in March this year found that glaciers across the HKH have continued to lose mass, with the rate of loss accelerating since 2000. Over five decades of observations, nearly 90% of recorded years showed a negative glacier mass balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exactly a year ago, Dialogue Earth reported on another major flood in the same region<\/a>, triggered by a small glacial lake on the surface of Purepu Glacier. Experts warned then that rapidly forming glacial lakes and changing glacier conditions were making the region increasingly vulnerable to downstream hazards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanyal is among those analysing the available evidence. ICIMOD has been working with the Nepali government, including the country\u2019s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, as well as scientists and researchers around the world, to analyse drone footage, images and other data from the disaster area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a conversation with Dialogue Earth, Sanyal explains what scientists know, what remains uncertain and how much of the devastation could have been prevented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The interview has been edited for length and clarity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dialogue Earth: What is the basis for the preliminary assessment that this was an ice-rock avalanche, and are you considering any alternative explanations?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Saswata<\/div>
Saswata Sanyal, ICIMOD\u2019s intervention manager for disaster risk reduction (Image: Jitendra Raj Bajracharya \/ ICIMOD)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Saswata Sanyal:<\/strong> What we have figured out is that it was not an ice-rock avalanche but a rock-ice avalanche \u2013 there was more rock than ice. This is also a preliminary understanding and has to be verified with field data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was a huge rock that was protruding [from the mountain\u2019s slope]. This is speculative, we need the data to confirm it \u2013 but the glacier sitting on top of it fell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are many hypotheses going around. The United States Geological Survey recorded earthquakes, but we discovered that this was because of the mass movement [of ice and rock]. There are also reports from Nepal\u2019s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology of another seismic wave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are trying to rule everything out using a checklist of factors to understand what happened. That analysis is ongoing and takes time. What we currently know is that this was a rock-ice avalanche, not a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)?<\/span>
\n

A sudden release of water from a lake formed by meltwater from a mountain glacier, which is held back by ice or a moraine (rocks and sediment carried along by the glacier).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u26a0\ufe0f These floods can be prompted by an earthquake, avalanche or the accumulation of too much meltwater. GLOFs are often extremely destructive, and are a growing threat in the Himalayan watershed.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

We don\u2019t know whether the mass was triggered on the 26th, or whether changes before also contributed to the bedrock failing and the flash floods that followed, with debris being collected along the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also don\u2019t know whether last year\u2019s flood<\/a> [on the same river] amplified this. The slopes on both sides were affected by that event, which happened around 13 or 14 months ago. It might have increased the impact of these floods. That is another hypothesis we need to investigate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the 2015 earthquake<\/a> might have played a role. We are being very careful to understand what other aspects and factors could have affected this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you see signs that the underlying hazard landscape in this part of the Himalayas is changing?\n<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s completely changing. But connecting this event with climate change will take time. The attribution takes time. There are multiple factors that we are looking into.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the trend is that, because of climate change, there is more warming in the HKH. As we said in our report<\/a> on water, ice, society and ecosystems in the HKH, this warming has increased the frequency and intensity of these kinds of disasters in the recent past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are seeing a lot of complex disasters. One thing we must understand is that most infrastructure planning has been based on past risk assessments. It\u2019s not that governments did not think about risks when planning. There are environmental and social impact assessments, as well as some level of risk assessment. But risk is very dynamic in this region. It\u2019s changing and outpacing some of the efforts we made in the past to implement risk-informed planning and investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We really have to go back to the drawing board and map out the different risks and scenarios we have in the HKH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are three different scenarios [in disaster risk science]. One is a cascading impact, when one event triggers many. The second is compound, where two different disasters happen within a short temporal gap. And then there is amplification [of impacts]. I think the world, and especially the HKH, needs to wake up to these possibilities, rather than just thinking there might be a GLOF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Rescue<\/div>
Rescue workers search damaged buildings following flash floods along the Trishuli River (Image: Rajesh Kumar Singh \/ Associated Press \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

There has been a lot of research on GLOFs because of the events we have seen<\/a>. But there are also phenomena such as the thawing of permafrost, which is making slopes very unstable and complicating everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have to look at different triggers more carefully across the region, including by monitoring glaciers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How much warning could a monitoring system realistically provide for an event like this, given the terrain and communications conditions in the Himalayas? And would that amount of warning be enough for people downstream to be able to act?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

What we have seen is that there was a gap between alert and action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not because the warning system did not work. The warning system did work, and we have information that people received SMS alerts about the event on the 26th. But people didn\u2019t know what to do with the warning or where to evacuate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most of the time, we think everything is accomplished once the warning reaches people. But it is very important to translate that warning into what needs to be done in the form of early action. That is the gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People received SMS alerts. But people did not know what to do with the warning or where to evacuate<\/blockquote><\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

There were many pilgrims and people who weren\u2019t from the area. Some of them may have understood Hindi, but it takes time to understand exactly what is happening. A lot of people were also not from the region. Mountain communities understand their mountains very well and have indigenous knowledge, but many in these settlements are migrants working at the port or driving tourists, as well as tourists themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For them to properly comprehend the risks is a big ask. We need to do much more to raise awareness across the region about these complex hazards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though many people received the warning, they might not have understood the scale of the event. They might have thought it was just a normal flood and taken their time. In future, early warnings need to make the scale of the event clear, as well as where to evacuate and what actions to take.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How can events like this be monitored?\n<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It is very difficult to monitor an ice-rock or rock-ice avalanche. We cannot have monitoring stations everywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we can identify which glaciers are more unstable, map them and perhaps monitor them using cameras or geophones [a device that converts ground movements into measurable voltage].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

There have been examples of this in Europe, including [the Swiss village of] Blatten, where authorities were able to evacuate<\/a> people before an event of this scale. But the Alps are very different from the HKH. The scale is [typically] much smaller and most places are inhabited, whereas here we are talking about very remote, often uninhabited areas where it\u2019s very difficult to put sensors. Maybe going forward we can use Earth observation data [imagery and measurements collected using remote sensors to monitor changes].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the topic of data sharing, were there gaps in information sharing between China and Nepal? What would an effective cross-border early-warning system look like?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Disasters don\u2019t respect boundaries. Countries \u2013 especially those that are up- and downstream of each other \u2013 need to come together and establish a regional mechanism for disaster information-sharing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be clear, there is<\/em> already ad-hoc sharing of information between governments in the region, but there is no permanent regional mechanism or standard operating procedure. ICIMOD has been advocating for this and can help facilitate such a mechanism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it takes time because data is very sensitive for all countries in the region. We have to work closely with governments to understand their data-sharing protocols and get the necessary approvals so there can be real-time information sharing across borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disasters don\u2019t respect boundaries<\/blockquote><\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In this case, the event originated on the Nepal-China border but was within Nepal. China cannot monitor areas within Nepal, but [its infrastructure] was affected because the dry port at the confluence of the two rivers was completely destroyed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We need to work together as a region to advance early warning. It needs to reach the last mile, so there is as little gap as possible between warning and action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Has this disaster changed the way you are assessing risk elsewhere in the Hindu Kush Himalaya? Are there other glacier-river systems, slopes or settlements you are particularly concerned about?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We have been talking about these risks for a long time, but this disaster has given us an opportunity to discuss cascading, compound and amplifying disasters in a broader and much more open way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gone are the times when we talked about hazards within national boundaries. We now have to move towards greater regional collaboration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are many systems in the region that we should be concerned about. We cannot focus on every river system or glacier, so we must focus particularly on those where there are settlements or investments downstream, such as hydropower. We can first map where there is hydropower downstream and then look upstream for the risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hydropower projects are growing rapidly in Nepal. Given the increasing risks from floods and other mountain hazards, is this expansion sustainable, and what checks and balances are needed to develop these projects safely?\n<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We have to think about acceptable risk, and that will only happen when we properly understand the upstream risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When we design hydropower in the region, we conduct environmental and social impact assessments, as well as some risk assessment. But we need to establish hydropower based on detailed multi-hazard risk assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We do need these investments in the future, but we have to choose where to invest based on proper risk understanding. That assessment should also consider cascading, compound and amplifying risks. Only then can we think about mitigating the risks to hydropower stations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How much of the loss of life and damage from this disaster could realistically have been prevented?\n<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

For this case, it was very difficult, to be honest. People who were right downstream had almost no chance [of survival]. The surge came at such high speeds that, for settlements just a few kilometres away, it was impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But for downstream settlements that were further away, I think early warning could have saved more lives if the alert-to-action gap was not there and people knew specifically where to evacuate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/div>
Relatives search through photographs of missing people at the National Trauma Centre in Kathmandu (Image: Safal Prakash Shrestha \/ JNA \/ ZUMA press \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Many people did receive [early warning] SMSs. But what to do with the SMS is something we need to look at. In future, warnings also need to communicate the scale of the event, so people know where to evacuate and how far to go. That would have saved more lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sometimes our memories of past disasters get diluted as we move on. It\u2019s our responsibility to advocate so that it does not leave our memories; so that we plan better next time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also have to think about what instruments we can innovate to give us enough lead time. In a rock-ice avalanche, if your settlement is a few kilometres down, considering the elevation, steep drop and narrow valleys, it\u2019s almost impossible [to provide enough warning or evacuate people in time]. The surge will be too high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, at least for some of the downstream communities, we\u2019ll have to do more as a region [to improve monitoring, early warning and preparedness].<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Better monitoring and regional cooperation needed as Himalayan hazards become more complex, says ICIMOD disaster risk specialist Saswata Sanyal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20000972,"featured_media":60149655,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[519,20000192,50041595,20000022],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000110,20000113],"class_list":["post-60149583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-climate-impacts","tag-disasters","tag-global-heating","tag-himalayas","country-china","country-nepal"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nQ&A: \u2018There was a gap between alert and action\u2019 in Nepal floods | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Better monitoring and regional cooperation needed as Himalayan hazards become more complex, says ICIMOD disaster risk expert Saswata 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Sanyal","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/qa-there-was-a-gap-between-alert-and-action-in-nepal-floods\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/qa-there-was-a-gap-between-alert-and-action-in-nepal-floods\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en","@id":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/qa-there-was-a-gap-between-alert-and-action-in-nepal-floods\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/An-aftermath-view-of-Nepal-flash-floods-and-mudslides-along-the-Trishuli-River_ZUMA-Press_Alamy_3FCA7W7-1200px-copy.jpeg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/An-aftermath-view-of-Nepal-flash-floods-and-mudslides-along-the-Trishuli-River_ZUMA-Press_Alamy_3FCA7W7-1200px-copy.jpeg","width":1200,"height":800,"caption":"3FCA7W7 Nuwakot, Bagmati, Nepal. 26th Aug, 2026. 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