Rodr\u00edguez claims the deal will net the country more than USD 200 billion. But some estimates suggest Venezuela may have left billions on the table by not freely auctioning off the rights. Various critics have also pointed to a lack of transparency regarding the details, the potential loss of tax revenue, and hidden environmental costs resulting from the lack of a plan to mitigate the industry\u2019s impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The deal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The path was laid for this deal when the US captured former president Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in January. Less than three weeks later, a new Hydrocarbons Law<\/a> was approved by Venezuela\u2019s National Assembly. This overturned Ch\u00e1vez-era regulations stipulating state control over oil fields and allowed for greater private commercialisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n NAPEB will invest <\/a>USD 100 billion as part of the agreement and says it will increase current production from 200,000 barrels a day to 500,000<\/a> by the end of 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to El Nacional, the list of areas involved includes<\/a> eight unexplored or undeveloped oil fields, known as \u201cgreenfields\u201d, in the <\/a>Orinoco Oil Belt, an area of 55,000 sq km north of the Orinoco River, in central and eastern Venezuela, believed to hold 300 billion of barrels of extra-heavy crude. It also includes mature fields, \u201cbrownfields\u201d, in the Lake Maracaibo Basin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The belt is an important reservoir of biodiversity, home to reptiles, migratory birds, and mammals, including threatened species such as Orinoco crocodile and the Orinoco river dolphin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One challenge the initiative will face is that, since the 1920s the Orinoco Belt\u2019s extra-heavy crude has posed extraction challenges due to its viscosity and density, prompting the development of new techniques to exploit it. Since the deal was announced, NABEP has announced the arrival of 20 workover drills and up to 60 new rigs<\/a> in order to expand<\/a> or begin operations in areas in the Orinoco Belt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another is the lifespan of the fields. Carlos Mendoza Potell\u00e1, an oil economist and former advisor to the Central Bank of Venezuela, told Dialogue Earth that the mature fields still have \u201cconsiderable reserves, but a short productive lifespan by industry standards\u201d. They have already been exploited for 60 to 80 years, so according to Mendoza, could stop producing profitably before the expiration of the 25-year concession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Economist Asdr\u00fabal Oliveros also points out that material conditions in Venezuela could prove a stumbling block. The <\/a>Venezuela International Oil and Gas Summit held in Caracas between 28 and 30 September was well attended by oil executives from around the world. This, Oliveros says, \u201cconfirmed the huge appetite that exists for Venezuela, but also the limitations. We have oil, but we need electricity, roads, ports, storage, pipelines, upgraders, oil services, financing and human capital\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Assessments by Siemens and General Electric estimate<\/a> that between USD 15 billion and USD 40 billion must be invested just to restore the electrical grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For the oil expert, Paulino Betancourt, investments will not materialise \u201cwithout legal guarantees to extract it and repatriate dividends without contractual surprises. There is preliminary interest, but major capital and large firms will enter when legal certainty outweighs political risk.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n On 30 September, acting President Rodr\u00edguez stated<\/a> that Venezuela <\/a>will receive minimum royalties of 16% and taxes of 34%. \u201cFor every barrel produced and sold, around USD 19 go directly to our country.\u201d She claimed that in total, this would amount to USD 209 billion over 25 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, Oliveros points out, that equates to USD 8 billion dollars a year, which equals <\/a>8% of Venezuela\u2019s 2025 GDP. He also cast doubt on the ambitious timeline. \u201cI wouldn\u2019t expect an overnight oil miracle,\u201d he says. \u201cIf the rules are upheld, the announced capital actually flows in, infrastructure improves, and the political and institutional process gains credibility, in three to five years we could be talking about a very different Venezuelan economy.\u201d His timeframe, however, would be \u201cseveral years\u201d rather than months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to former National Assembly member and oil economist Jos\u00e9 Guerra, Venezuela <\/a>sacrificed<\/a> USD 6.2 billion in revenue by handing over the areas without public auctions and agreeing to deliver 20% of oil at cost price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oliveros says the impact of the deal can only be evaluated once the true impact on development, jobs and the economy materialises, alongside the implementation of policies for transparency, savings, and investment. \u201cIt is not enough to produce barrels,\u201d he says. \u201cWhat matters is how they are turned into well-being for Venezuelans.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The oil deal also highlights the lack of progress on Venezuela\u2019s energy transition, which has stalled before it really got started. PDVSA, the state-owned energy company, abandoned<\/a> several wind farms before they were completed, amid budget issues, while a solar panel factory using Chinese technology is barely operational. Maintenance has also been halted on a national network of small solar installations. Current energy plans focus on developing infrastructure to extract natural gas and recovering and expanding hydropower, the country\u2019s main source of electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Juan Carlos S\u00e1nchez, co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize as a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has advised<\/a> the government to take a different approach. In Venezuela\u2019s Energy Roadmap 2026-2050, a document he drew up independently to help inform decision making, he recommends using oil revenues to finance improving electricity infrastructure, renewable energy development, and economic diversification. The roadmap calls for stronger institutions and an energy transition fund. It stresses the lack of government targets on energy transition and climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, the government disclosed<\/a> last year that in 1990-2022 the electricity mix was dominated by hydropower (79.73%), with about 20% coming from fossil-fuel-fired thermal power plants. A wind farm and a solar farm were added to the grid in 2024, it added. Using Venezuela\u2019s 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution inventory<\/a>, Efecto Cocuyo has estimated<\/a> that solar and wind power account for only 0.27% of the energy consumed in Venezuela.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The neglect of the nation\u2019s oil infrastructure has also led to frequent leaks<\/a> \u2013 particularly in the hundreds of kilometres of underwater pipelines in Lake Maracaibo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The environmental NGO Clima 21 and the NGO Provea issued<\/a> a joint statement in September urging the government to establish environmental safeguards and human rights guarantees in light of the new oil agreement. They called for transparency, consultation with Indigenous communities and for existing spills to be dealt with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The deal has also thrown into question oil interests long held by companies from China and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In January 2026, following Maduro\u2019s capture, the Russian state oil company Roszarubezhneft <\/a>stated<\/a> that all its assets in Venezuela \u201care the property of the Russian State, acquired by the Russian side under market conditions, in full compliance with the laws of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, international law and intergovernmental agreements\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In September, Guo Jiakun, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, insisted<\/a> that cooperation between China and Venezuela is \u201cprotected by international law and the laws of both countries\u201d and that its legitimate interests \u201cmust be guaranteed\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n US Energy Secretary Chris Wright declared<\/a> days after the new deal that China <\/a>would have no rights to the new oil revenue to collect Venezuela\u2019s outstanding debt. In a February visit to Venezuela he had said<\/a> the influence of China, Russia and Iran \u201cwill be considerably reduced\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Venezuela\u2019s minister of hydrocarbons, Paula Henao has said<\/a> that joint ventures with China and Russia remain valid. But most of the contracts signed<\/a> by Chinese companies since 2024 were signed under the Anti-Blockade Law<\/a>. This legislation, enacted to circumvent US sanctions, offered less legal certainty but greater profits than joint ventures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Five of the 17 oil fields involved in the deal have been transferred from Chinese companies, according to Reuters, citing US officials. Among them is the private firm China Concord Resources, whichLuis D\u00edaz Salazar, a former member in the National Assembly, told Dialogue Earth the company is now seeking compensation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n China can \u201cplay a waiting game\u201d, Salazar says, waiting for better geopolitical conditions, confident in its advantages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oil expert <\/a>Paulino Betancourt predicts<\/a> an \u201cexercise in cold pragmatism and strategic patience\u201d from Chinese interests. \u201cIt will apply the diplomacy of the patient debt-collector: they know that administrations pass, but debts and subsoil resources remain,\u201d he tells Dialogue Earth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Interim president claims Venezuela will earn USD 200 billion from its deal with the US. Others suggest billions are being left on the table and environmental damages are unaddressed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000223,"featured_media":60159540,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_has_post_settings":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[50040720,50029971],"hashtags":[],"country":[50002604],"class_list":["post-60159505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-geopolitics","tag-oil","country-venezuela"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n![\"Orinoco](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Orinoco-Crocodile_Alamy_W7X18E-scaled.jpg\")
<\/div>How much would Venezuela gain and lose?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
It is not enough to produce barrels. What matters is how they are turned into well-being for Venezuelans<\/blockquote>Asdr\u00fabal Oliveros, economist<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Delayed transition<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Facing China and Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Xi](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Xi-Jinping-Liberator-Medal_Alamy_2RMRHX2.jpeg\")
<\/div>