{"id":64244,"date":"2020-05-29T19:09:09","date_gmt":"2020-05-29T19:09:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinadialogue.net\/?p=64244"},"modified":"2021-02-15T10:24:59","modified_gmt":"2021-02-15T10:24:59","slug":"can-china-accelerate-the-green-transition-in-central-and-eastern-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/can-china-accelerate-the-green-transition-in-central-and-eastern-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Can China accelerate the green transition in central and eastern Europe?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Xi Jinping\u2019s planned \u201c17+1\u201d summit in April may have been scuppered by coronavirus, but that hasn\u2019t stopped the long-running and contentious debate about China\u2019s intentions and impacts in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 17+1 forum was founded in 2012 to deepen ties between China and the 17 central and eastern European (CEE) states that span a diverse area from the Baltic to the Balkans. It has prompted excitement in countries eager for Chinese investment \u2013 and subsequent disappointment. It has been cast as a pressing strategic threat to Europe and an \u201cempty shell\u201d; considered a conduit for dirty infrastructure development under China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative and a potential \u201cwindow of opportunity<\/a>\u201d for sustainable development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now a new report<\/a> by the China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE) network has challenged the more sceptical views on the significance of China\u2019s relationship with the region, arguing that cooperation is greater than previously thought. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what do experts in the region make of the 17+1 in 2020? What does it reveal about China\u2019s influence in Europe? And what are the implications for the climate cooperation so badly needed between China and the European Union?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than an empty shell<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ivana Kar\u00e1skov\u00e1 is China research fellow at the Association for International Affairs in Prague and one of the authors of the CHOICE report. Although she herself first coined the term \u201cempty shell\u201d to describe an initiative that appeared to be producing little beyond outline agreements and photo opportunities, she changed her mind after carrying out a large-scale audit of 17+1 interactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The nature of 17+1 cooperation is elusive, said Kar\u00e1skov\u00e1, because of a lack of transparency on the ground \u2013 many activities are not publicised or shared with local media, suggesting nothing much is happening. Where information is available, says her report, it is so fragmented it makes China\u2019s actions look \u201cscarce and random\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, when the researchers expanded their search to include Chinese sources, they found a richer vein of interaction. This included, for example, programmes targeting youth and political leaders and a range of cooperation formats \u201cfrom ministerial dialogues to seminars and even dance camps\u201d. The researchers found that subnational cooperation, such as between cities or provinces, was flourishing, leading to university partnerships, more direct flights, and trade and investment fairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have to rethink this whole empty shell concept,\u201d Kar\u00e1skov\u00e1 told China Dialogue. \u201cIt was a region where [China] had almost no relationships \u2026 they started from scratch and within less than eight years they established themselves quite firmly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is this view of the 17+1 as a structure with clout that has caused consternation in Brussels, where officials have tended to regard the forum as a hostile tool to \u201cdivide and conquer\u201d Europe, according to Kar\u00e1skov\u00e1 and other experts. At a time when the world is relying on China and the EU to step up and act collectively to avert climate breakdown, potential cleavages between the two matter more than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coronavirus willing, Chinese and EU leaders will meet for a summit in Leipzig in September, and climate will be on the agenda. Could 17+1 strain the relationship at a pivotal time for the planet?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overestimating China\u2019s influence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Many observers are frustrated by what they see as an exaggerated view of the situation on the EU side. The idea that Europe is being divided via Chinese investment in CEE countries is \u201csimplistic\u201d and infantilising of those states, say the authors of the CHOICE report, who urge the EU to drop this mindset. Kar\u00e1skov\u00e1 points out that in 2019 only around 3%<\/a> of China\u2019s foreign direct investment in Europe went into CEE countries, with the rest flowing into western European states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Richard Turcs\u00e1nyi, program director at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies at Palacky University in the Czech Republic, also believes Brussels is overestimating China\u2019s influence in the 17 countries, aside from Serbia and to a lesser degree Hungary. \u201cSometimes there is this image of Chinese influence being very strong in the CEE region, but in fact I would say the opposite might be closer to reality: that China really wants to build its presence to the extent it is present in other regions,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But even if China\u2019s interactions with CEE countries pose no material threat to Europe, Turcs\u00e1nyi and others believe the symbolic effect of the 17+1 is still significant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One area where this has potential to play out with damaging consequences is in climate cooperation, according to Igor Rogelja, a teaching fellow at the Lau China Institute at London\u2019s King\u2019s College. Narratives pinning the blame on China for polluting projects in Bosnia and Serbia<\/a>, for example, risk shifting wider perceptions in a damaging direction. \u201cThe danger is that there is a sort of comprehensive anti-China narrative forming that will really scupper any chance of negotiation,\u201d Rogelja said in an email.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s more convenient to point your finger at China, a known polluter, than deal with the root problem of poverty and poor governance in south-eastern Europe<\/blockquote>Igor Rogelja, Lau China Institute of King\u2019s College London.<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Chinese state-owned enterprises are \u201cdefinitely harming China\u2019s image and building things that should not be built\u201d, he said, but they are not the main reason holding back a transition to low-carbon energy in the region. The EU has far more influence than Beijing and local interests are the primary drivers of coal plants and other polluting schemes. \u201cThe EU should stop blaming China … and take more responsibility for the failed transition in the region,\u201d he said. \u201cOf course, it\u2019s more convenient to point your finger at China, a known polluter, than deal with the root problem of poverty and poor governance in south-eastern Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How can the EU accelerate the green transition in CEE countries while maintaining a constructive relationship with China?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One response might be to inject new life into EU accession talks with countries in the 17+1 club that are not yet EU members. Dragan Pavli\u0107evi\u0107, associate professor at Xi\u2019an Jiatong Liverpool University, points out that 17+1 documents published during the forum\u2019s annual summits say that participating states will proceed in accordance with EU standards \u2013 but notes that there is some leeway for those that are not yet EU members. A plan to build a lignite coal plant in Bosnia<\/a> with Chinese money, for example, has already been challenged<\/a> by the EU\u2019s enlargement chief, who said it flouted state aid rules of the Energy Community (which Bosnia belongs to as an EU candidate country) and questioned the choice of technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prospect of EU membership should allow Brussels to exert considerable influence over such decision-making, said Pavli\u0107evi\u0107, but the EU has been sending mixed messages about enlargement. The path to accession needs to be credible and perceived as such for the EU to maximise leverage, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU-China cooperation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For Pavli\u0107evi\u0107, the most constructive approach would be to partner with both CEE countries and China to vigorously identify, develop and finance green projects in the region. \u201cIncorporating China\u2019s expertise and finances would allow for more to be done,\u201d he said, while avoiding antagonising recipient countries \u2013 and China \u2013 through a zero-sum approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom\u00e1\u0161 Jungwirth, head of the climate team at the Association for International Affairs, said a shift in approach to overseas investments from China could also help if it joins up its more stringent climate outlook at home with the approach taken under the Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf China decides to actually bring in line its external activities and investments abroad<\/a> with this more progressive vocabulary it has been using lately on climate this would obviously be very helpful globally and surely as well in this region, because then you would have more than the quote unquote Evil Brussels pushing for a more climate progressive agenda.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But even if China decided to push for a greener approach in the CEE region, how likely would it be to succeed? Many countries here remain dependent on fossil fuels and heavy industry while climate ambition has lagged behind western states. Poland\u2019s exemption from Europe\u2019s target for carbon neutrality by 2050 is just one marker of the tough political context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is an ideal world in which the EU\u00a0and China integrate their carbon markets and become leaders of the global climate agenda<\/blockquote>Max Jungmann, co-founder of Momentum Novum<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Max Jungmann, co-founder of Momentum Novum, a German social enterprise focused on sustainable development, sees these as significant blockers. Jungmann wrote a paper in 2018 arguing the 17+1 held potential to create a \u201cwindow of opportunity\u201d for sustainable development but argues that window remains closed. As well as the challenging politics around climate, he said rising anti-Chinese sentiment presents a potential barrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, Jungmann believes the 17+1 could drive cleaner development if the policy areas covered in the 17+1 cooperation considered sustainability and connected it firmly to trade opportunities. Upgrading rail lines, for example, could be a fertile area for investment that serves both economy and environment. He also hopes to see the EU and China use their dual influence to accelerate a green transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There, of course, he is not alone. As the urgency of the climate crisis comes into sharper focus, many across the world are waiting to see if the EU and China can forge a partnership that triggers the level of global change required. \u201cThere is an ideal world in which the EU and China integrate their carbon markets [and] become leaders of the global climate agenda,\u201d said Jungwirth. \u201cAnd if that doesn\u2019t happen, nothing will. Because the EU alone is not strong enough.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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