The moment for personal transport<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
As the pandemic eased off, urban transportation got back up to speed \u2013 but it still isn\u2019t where it was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Few people are commuting by subway on workdays. Late May saw subway passenger numbers only recover to 60-80% of December\u2019s levels, according to figures<\/a> gathered from 10 first- and second-tier cities by the National Business Daily. On 28 May, for example, Beijing and Guangzhou had reached 61% and 67% of December\u2019s numbers respectively, with Shanghai at 78%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, indexes of rush hour congestion generally rose. By 28 May, Beijing\u2019s congestion index was 23% up on December\u2019s levels, according to the survey. Shanghai and Guangzhou saw smaller increases, of 20% and 11%. Richard Liu, East Asia director for the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, an international NGO, attributes those increases to more cars being on the roads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Figures from bike-sharing firm Hellobike, which boast of having a 50% market share, show that rental figures had fully recovered in May, with large growth in user numbers. Shared bikes are also now being ridden longer distances. As the outbreak stabilised in China, Hellobike has seen a significant increase in the proportion of journeys of over 3km. This was most apparent in Wuhan, where three times as many longer journeys were made than previously. Richard Liu told China Dialogue that shared bike operators saw average journey lengths of 1km prior to the outbreak, but now often see trips of 3-5 km \u2013 which was the previous average for shared electric bikes. Bike riders are more willing to make complete journeys where previously they only peddled to and from public transport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That personal transportation is quickly becoming more popular while public transport makes a slow comeback is down to wariness about virus transmission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Will this current trend turn into lasting behaviour change? Will traffic figures continue to grow? Experts suggest answers to these questions have to do with how demand changes. New ways of working may reduce the need to commute, while fear of a new outbreak will make people less inclined to travel for work or leisure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cCar sales may increase in the near-term, as people look for safer transport options. I have one colleague who\u2019s preparing to buy a car, after finding not having one difficult during the pandemic,\u201d said Gong Huiming, senior project director for Energy Foundation China\u2019s transport program. \u201cBut in the long term, deeper impacts of the coronavirus on people\u2019s transportation behaviour will reduce demand for travel and so reduce car use.\u201d He pointed to how meetings have changed. Previously, Chinese firms rarely used teleconferencing \u2013 Tencent only released a videoconferencing service last December, but within two months it had over 10 million<\/a> active accounts a day. \u201cThe pandemic has got everyone used to video calls, so they might not always opt for face-to-face meetings,\u201d Gong said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Deng Han, senior transportation engineer with the ITDP, agrees. He says people have moved around less during the pandemic, with offline activity moving online. In the medium and long term, the greater efficiency of working online will make this a habit, reducing the need to travel. \u201cWe\u2019ll see changes in transportation in line with changes in how we live.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Alongside these changes, government-led building of transportation infrastructure and favourable new policies for electric cars will also affect the transportation mix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Beijing\u2019s overall plans for 2016 to 2035<\/a>, the city is due to have around 1,000km of subway and elevated rail by the end of 2020, and no less than 2,500km by 2035. But as of the end of last year, it had less than 700km<\/a>. Guangzhou\u2019s subway plans<\/a> would see the city have a 2,000km urban rail transport network by 2035, four times as long as today. In 2018, the Shenzhen Metro Group told the media<\/a> the city would have 580km of rail by 2022, with 33 lines stretching 1,335km by 2035 \u2013 nearly five times the current length. There is still huge potential for subway expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the Beijing News<\/a>, 59 urban rail projects across 12 regions were approved by national or provincial level development and reform commissions in 2019, with investments totalling 970 billion yuan (US$140 billion). Work was due to start in 2020 on 30 of those, worth 400-500 billion yuan. In March, some media outlets described rail transport as part of \u201cneo-infrastructure<\/a>\u201d \u2013 which really means digitalisation and smart technology, including data centres and 5G base stations. Despite a media review<\/a> of government stimulus measures finding that rail did not qualify as neo-infrastructure, and experts agreeing that it\u2019s not \u201cnew infrastructure\u201d either, markets still took an extra interest. Industry bodies have even predicted<\/a> that investment in rail could reach 1.2 trillion yuan this year, and 6 trillion yuan over the coming five years. That interest, on top of ambitious government plans for subways, may result in a bigger rail construction rush and faster changes in public transportation choices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, in the car sector, the shift from traditional fuels to electricity is being closely watched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Last July, after reductions in subsidies, monthly sales of electric vehicles (EVs) saw the first year-on-year fall<\/a> for two years, and 2019 became the first year in a decade<\/a> to see a reduction in EV manufacturing. With the dual impact of the pandemic and plummeting oil prices, consumers have become less enthusiastic about EVs: sales fell year-on-year until June, and dropped 37.4%<\/a> year-on-year during the first half of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Faced with this decline, the government stepped in. On 31 March, Chinese premier Li Keqiang chaired a meeting<\/a> of the State Council, at which subsidies and tax waivers for purchases of EVs were extended for two years \u2013 the subsidy had been due to expire at the end of this year. On 23 April, the Ministry of Finance and three other ministries published new policies<\/a> on subsidies, calling for a steady reduction, of 10%, 20% and 30% on the previous year\u2019s level, in 2020, 2021 and 2022. But the government also tightened range restrictions: vehicles are now eligible for subsidies only when they have a range of at least 300km, rather than the previous threshold of 250km.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Alongside subsidies, the government is also pushing ahead with EV infrastructure. On 14 April, the State Grid started construction<\/a> of 78,000 new charging points, at a cost of 2.7 billion yuan. This will include 53,000 charging points in residential communities and 18,000 in public locations. These charging points, spread across 24 provinces, will ease recharging difficulties for EV owners. It has been estimated<\/a> that this new infrastructure will drive 20 billion yuan in spending on EVs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These policies saw year-on-year sales of EVs rise in July, for the first time this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, provincial-level governments have also been loosening restrictions on car purchases to encourage EV take-up. On 1 August, Beijing<\/a> announced it would allow 20,000 carless households to purchase EVs; Shenzhen<\/a> has relaxed criteria for private purchasers of EVs, with non-permanent residents (people with a residence permit but no household registration\/hukou<\/em>) now allowed to apply; and Shanghai<\/a> will continue its existing policy of not restricting purchase of EVs and of halving the length of the registration process. According to Gong Huiming, the greater ease of purchasing an EV is a key motivator for many buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Innovation Centre for Energy and Transportation (iCET), a Beijing- and Los Angeles-based thinktank, thinks these financial and non-financial measures will increase EV demand \u2013 but that the industry still has many issues in urgent need of resolution. These include recharging access, battery safety and recycling, and an imbalance in development of passenger and commercial EVs. And in a written response to China Dialogue, an iCET expert said that \u201cthe pandemic means a shake-up for the industry, an opportunity to integrate superior resources, improve manufacturing efficiency and eliminate substandard firms.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the more profound impact of the pandemic on transportation may be on public attitudes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n People are finding slower forms of transport more important. Richard Liu told China Dialogue that during lockdowns many people became more reliant on walking and cycling. Major cities such as New York, London and Milan have converted roads to cycle lanes \u2013 changes which will be permanent. Chinese cities are also actively developing slower transport options. For example, the Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning & Design is designing the second phase of a bicycle expressway<\/a>. The first phase opened<\/a> last May, linking the residential district of Huilongguan with the high-tech industrial zone of Shangdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Deng Han thinks the pandemic has left people reluctant to make long leisure trips, and they now prefer to visit parks within a 10-15 minute walk. It is time, according to him, to advocate for the \u201c15-minute city\u201d, where services including leisure, exercise, shopping, healthcare and banking are all available within a 15-minute walk or cycle. \u201cMoving in that direction would also help reduce car use,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Changes in how people work and live has boosted private over public modes of transport<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1072,"featured_media":66748,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[14713,20000838,13444,14061],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000110],"class_list":["post-66744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-cities","tag-covid-19","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-transport","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n![](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2C66D7H_wear-face-masks-in-beijing.jpg\")
<\/div>Rail transport bides its time<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Electric vehicles get government backstop<\/h2>\n\n\n\n