{"id":74752,"date":"2022-01-31T10:28:40","date_gmt":"2022-01-31T10:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadialogue.net\/?p=74752"},"modified":"2022-02-08T10:28:31","modified_gmt":"2022-02-08T10:28:31","slug":"vietnam-targets-net-zero-but-struggles-to-break-coal-dependence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/vietnam-targets-net-zero-but-struggles-to-break-coal-dependence\/","title":{"rendered":"Vietnam targets net zero, but struggles to break coal dependence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">At the COP26 climate conference last year, Vietnam\u2019s Prime Minister Pham Minh Ch\u00ednh unexpectedly announced a target of reaching <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/environment\/vietnam-targeting-carbon-emission-neutrality-by-2050-minister-says-2021-11-01\/\">net zero by 2050<\/a>. The country also signed the <a href=\"https:\/\/ukcop26.org\/global-coal-to-clean-power-transition-statement\/\">Global Coal to Clean Power Transition<\/a> statement, in which it committed to rapidly scale up renewables and build no more new unabated coal power plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a major and unexpected pivot for Vietnam. The country has invested heavily in coal power over the past decade and has the most installed coal capacity among Mekong countries, after China. Just two months before COP26, the government <a href=\"http:\/\/ieefa.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Vietnam-PDP8-Signals-Policy-Confusion-About-the-Economics_Thu_Vu_Sept_2021.pdf\">released<\/a> Vietnam\u2019s eighth power development plan (PDP8) which covered 2021\u20132030 and relied heavily on foreign investment in non-renewable energy. The PDP8 would have doubled coal power capacity by 2030, with more to come in the five years after that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After its COP26 announcements, the government asked the Ministry of Industry and Trade to <a href=\"https:\/\/vnexpress.net\/quy-hoach-dien-viii-phai-hoan-thien-lai-4384079.html\">revise<\/a> the PDP8, though an updated draft is yet to be released.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/8365420\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100%;height:450px;\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>By 2020, Vietnam\u2019s coal power fleet was generating <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/energy\/country\/vietnam#what-sources-does-the-country-get-its-energy-from\">as much energy<\/a> as all other power sources combined. In that year, the sector <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/co2\/country\/vietnam\">emitted<\/a> about 126 million tonnes of CO2, or around half of Vietnam\u2019s emissions. The country\u2019s emissions have increased in recent years, as those of its neighbours have mostly remained flat or fallen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/8372575\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100%;height:500px;\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Brian Eyler, Southeast Asia director of the Stimson Center, a US thinktank, explains that as Vietnam exports more manufactured goods than its neighbours, sources of electricity generation needed to be developed more quickly, and coal and hydropower were \u201cthe easy solutions\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Around 2010, Vietnam stopped building big dams, instead favouring coal power, when it released its seventh power development plan (PDP7) for 2011\u20132020. \u201cThe Ministry of Industry and Trade judged that the hydro potential had been all but tapped, so they switched the focus to coal,\u201d said Tran Dinh Sinh, a technical consultant for GreenID, a Vietnamese environmental NGO. \u201cThe latest draft [September 2021] of the PDP8 also showed 51 gigawatts (GW) of coal in 2030, so PDP8 is the continuation of PDP7. But [the ministry] are not explaining why they are doing this.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Research commissioned in 2017 by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, a German non-profit organisation, found that institutionalised conflicts of interest were a <a href=\"http:\/\/library.fes.de\/pdf-files\/bueros\/vietnam\/13684.pdf\">barrier<\/a> to Vietnam\u2019s transition from coal to low-carbon sources, an observation echoed by Eyler. \u201cIt is hard to convince companies who build coal plants not to do it. They have a lot of power and special interest groups,\u201d he explains, adding that the balancing of interests in the PDP revision process has felt like a boxing match. \u201cOne day the coal people are back on the ropes, and the next day they are fighting hard. It\u2019s just back and forth, back and forth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-investment-drying-up\">Investment drying up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Data from <a href=\"https:\/\/globalenergymonitor.org\/projects\/global-coal-public-finance-tracker\/\">Global Energy Monitor<\/a> show that since 2010 Vietnam\u2019s coal sector has received at least US$29 billion in foreign investment. The Stimson Center\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stimson.org\/2020\/mekong-infrastructure-tracker-tool\/\">Mekong Infrastructure Tracker<\/a> tells a similar story of reliance on foreign money to build coal plants: for every 100 MW of coal capacity in operation right now, 93 MW were built with some foreign investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cCoal was the cheapest and fastest way to meet Vietnam\u2019s electricity needs. And there was easy funding available,\u201d said James Browning, the communications director of Global Energy Monitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China, Japan and South Korea used to be the main investors in Vietnam\u2019s coal sector but have now <a href=\"https:\/\/ieefa.org\/ieefa-defying-global-financial-trends-vietnam-pivots-back-to-coal-power\/\">backed away<\/a>. Even before Vietnam\u2019s announcement at COP26, questions were being raised about how the PDP8 would be funded. According to the September draft, Vietnam would need roughly US$44 billion to grow its coal fleet over the next 10 years, or roughly 50% more than all the foreign funds that have flowed into the sector in the past decade \u2013 an increase that seems unlikely in the new landscape of coal finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Doubt has therefore been cast on the feasibility of the PDP\u2019s projections. After President Xi Jinping announced last September that China would <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/china-to-stop-building-new-coal-power-projects-overseas\/\">stop building new overseas coal projects<\/a>, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis published a <a href=\"https:\/\/ieefa.org\/ieefa-defying-global-financial-trends-vietnam-pivots-back-to-coal-power\/\">brief<\/a>. It concluded that, given the turn away from financing coal by Asian and North American governments and banks, of the additional 30 GW of coal power planned in PDP8, only a third is still feasible. This covers projects already in construction or with funding secured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-human-costs-and-backlash\">Human costs and backlash<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Research published in 2017 on the <a href=\"https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1021\/acs.est.6b03731\">burden of disease<\/a> arising from coal power in Southeast Asia estimated that if all the coal plants in PDP7 were built by 2030, then Vietnam would face almost 20,000 extra deaths that year due to the resulting air pollution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/8372959\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px;\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Burning coal releases fly ash, which is abundant in tiny particulates. When inhaled, these can lead to heart disease, lung and throat cancers and respiratory diseases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is, as yet, limited data concerning how damaging Vietnam\u2019s coal plants are to surrounding communities. In an effort to fill this gap, Nguyen Trong An, a paediatrician at the Center for Health Environment Research and Development (CHERAD) in Hanoi, travelled with a team to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gem.wiki\/Vinh_Tan_power_station#cite_note-83\">Vinh Tan commune<\/a> on the country\u2019s southeast coast in March 2021. The area is home to three operational coal plants, with another under construction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The team wanted to gather information from medical logbooks at local health stations in Vinh Tan and nearby commune Phuoc The. In Vinh Tan, the authorities did not supply original documents, claiming that the bookkeeper was away; An said the team plan to return this year to investigate further. At Phuoc The, he claims to have found that from 2010 to 2020 the rate of death from cancer and stroke was higher than expected. Before the coal plants were built in 2010, for every 100 deaths, 33 were attributable to noncommunicable diseases such as cancer and heart attack. By 2020, this had risen to 70 in 100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A correlation can be seen, but An says they may not be the only cause of the higher mortality rates and the findings will need to be corroborated with further studies this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite a lack of localised data on the fuel\u2019s harmful health impacts in Vietnam, some citizens have already turned against coal plants. Of the 54 coal power projects that Global Energy Monitor tracks in the country, eight have recorded protest or opposition. Local residents in the vicinity of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gem.wiki\/Duyen_Hai_Power_Generation_Complex#Opposition\">Duyen Hai power station<\/a> have complained that the removal of sand dunes to build a coal port has increased the incidence of flooding, landslides and soil erosion. Meanwhile, the discharge of heated water from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gem.wiki\/Quang_Ninh_power_station\">Quang Ninh power plant<\/a> has caused mass die-offs of fish and shrimp, destroying the livelihoods of hundreds of families.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-adapting-to-global-shifts\">Adapting to global shifts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>At the end of November, MoIT <a href=\"https:\/\/vnexpress.net\/dien-gio-mat-troi-se-phat-trien-ra-sao-sau-cam-ket-cop-26-4396638.html\">said<\/a> that by 2045, cleaner energy including gas, solar and wind will account for about 75% of Vietnam\u2019s total installed generating capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, many experts do not consider gas a \u201cclean energy\u201d. Browning points out that, in the short term, the abundant methane released during gas extraction and combustion is 80 times worse than CO2 in terms of its warming effect. Global Energy Monitor released a <a href=\"https:\/\/globalenergymonitor.org\/report\/asias-gas-lock-in\/\">report<\/a> in October 2021 saying that if all planned gas infrastructure in Asia is built then the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C is unlikely to be met.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vietnam\u2019s renewable energy sector\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/industries\/electric-power-and-natural-gas\/our-insights\/capturing-the-wind-renewable-energy-opportunities-in-vietnam\">potential<\/a> is booming. The draft PDP8 predicts that in 2030 the country will need 92 GW of electricity. To meet that demand, the country must grow its energy structure by 18 GW in nine years, or 2 GW per year. In 2020, wind power alone grew by 4 GW, and in 2019, solar capacity increased by 16 GW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cVietnam can make a transition away from these previously forecast coal plants,\u201d said Eyler. \u201cThe biggest opportunity lies in offshore wind. We could see a very similar boom in wind as we saw in solar in the last two years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He added: \u201cI think the China commitment [to stop overseas coal projects] will produce results, and that could work to change the way that those [coal] groups think about the future. Because we\u2019ve seen, like in the US, the big oil and gas companies, they are building solar now. They can make the transition.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As foreign investors turn away from coal, an internal struggle is taking place over Vietnam\u2019s energy path<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1072,"featured_media":74756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[513,520,17073],"hashtags":[],"country":[20028207],"class_list":["post-74752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-coal","tag-energy-transition","country-vietnam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Vietnam targets net zero, but struggles to break coal dependence | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As foreign 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