{"id":50004075,"date":"2015-11-20T17:22:41","date_gmt":"2015-11-20T17:22:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=4075"},"modified":"2020-03-06T10:41:01","modified_gmt":"2020-03-06T10:41:01","slug":"4214-2020-sera-o-ano-da-virada-para-america-latina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/pt-br\/clima\/4214-2020-sera-o-ano-da-virada-para-america-latina\/","title":{"rendered":"2020 ser\u00e1 o ano da “virada” para Am\u00e9rica Latina"},"content":{"rendered":"

Os anos que antecedem 2020 s\u00e3o cruciais para a Am\u00e9rica Latina. Previs\u00f5es indicam que a pr\u00f3xima d\u00e9cada vai registrar nas cidades da regi\u00e3o as maiores taxas de crescimento do mundo, a popula\u00e7\u00e3o em idade ativa ser\u00e1 maior que a de jovens e idosos, a economia regional estar\u00e1 bem posicionada no cen\u00e1rio mundial, como indica um relat\u00f3rio<\/a> do centro internacional Woodrow Wilson<\/a> financiado pela Ag\u00eancia dos Estados Unidos para o Desenvolvimento Internacional (USAID<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Ao mesmo tempo, se tudo correr como esperado na Confer\u00eancia do Clima de Paris<\/a>, 2020 ser\u00e1 o ano em que o acordo global que limita as emiss\u00f5es de gases estufa come\u00e7a a valer. At\u00e9 l\u00e1, a expectativa \u00e9 que todo o globo viva uma transi\u00e7\u00e3o para uma economia de baixo carbono, ou seja, que toda a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de energia, produtos e alimentos adote processos com baixa emiss\u00e3o de gases estufa.<\/p>\n

\u201cOs pa\u00edses precisam fazer mudan\u00e7as transformadoras que envolvam todos os setores. Se conseguirem fazer isso de forma correta, ser\u00e1 uma oportunidade para os governos aumentarem a gera\u00e7\u00e3o de emprego, abrirem novos mercados que tragam crescimento econ\u00f4mico\u201d, analisa Amal-Lee Amin, chefe da Divis\u00e3o Mudan\u00e7as Clim\u00e1ticas e Sustentabilidade do Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento (BID)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Parte importante da solu\u00e7\u00e3o estaria no envolvimento efetivo de minist\u00e9rios que lidam com o or\u00e7amento em a\u00e7\u00f5es para mitigar as mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas, como investimento em fontes renov\u00e1veis de energia. \u201c\u00c9 preciso garantir que o dinheiro para financiar essa transforma\u00e7\u00e3o flua em grande escala – e n\u00e3o em projetos isolados, um aqui e outro ali. \u00c9 preciso financiamento para garantir uma mudan\u00e7a setorial, al\u00e9m de pol\u00edticas e regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es que atraiam investimentos do setor privado\u201d, pontua Amin.<\/p>\n

Muitos pa\u00edses da Am\u00e9rica Latina, por outro lado, n\u00e3o ter\u00e3o condi\u00e7\u00f5es de promover essa transforma\u00e7\u00e3o sozinhos. No Caribe, por exemplo, na\u00e7\u00f5es como Haiti, Jamaica e Rep\u00fablica Dominicana est\u00e3o entre as mais pobres e as mais vulner\u00e1veis \u00e0s mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas.<\/p>\n

\u201cAcredito que os pa\u00edses latino-americanos se preocupam muito com a quest\u00e3o do acesso aos fundos internacionais de financiamento. Eles questionam se os pa\u00edses desenvolvidos cumprir\u00e3o o prometido para financiar especialmente a\u00e7\u00f5es de adapta\u00e7\u00e3o. Mitiga\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 o principal assunto, mas adapta\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 importante tamb\u00e9m\u201d, pontua Lisa Viscidi, diretora do Programa de Energia, Mudan\u00e7as Clim\u00e1ticas e Ind\u00fastrias Extrativas do centro de estudos Inter-American Dialogue<\/a>, baseado em Washington.<\/p>\n

Para os pa\u00edses caribenhos, a falta de uma estrat\u00e9gia eficiente para enfrentar os impactos das mudan\u00e7as do clima pode ser especialmente devastador. De pequena \u00e1rea e com uma economia fortemente baseada no turismo, esses territ\u00f3rios podem sofrer perdas irrepar\u00e1veis com a eleva\u00e7\u00e3o do n\u00edvel do mar e com as fortes tempestades.<\/p>\n

Amal-Lee Amin, que j\u00e1 integrou a delega\u00e7\u00e3o brit\u00e2nica de negociadores em confer\u00eancias passadas, defende que, se os l\u00edderes globais quiserem de fato limitar o aumento da temperatura em 2 graus at\u00e9 o fim do s\u00e9culo, o apoio financeiro internacional \u00e0 Am\u00e9rica Latina \u00e9 indispens\u00e1vel.<\/p>\n

\u201cOs pa\u00edses latino-americanos mais avan\u00e7ados j\u00e1 fizeram bastante em termos de mitiga\u00e7\u00e3o. Mas tamb\u00e9m precisar\u00e3o de financiamento internacional para aumentar o n\u00edvel de ambi\u00e7\u00e3o da Contribui\u00e7\u00e3o Nacionalmente Determinada j\u00e1 apresentada\u201d, (INDC<\/a>, na sigla em ingl\u00eas).<\/p>\n

Promessas variadas<\/h2>\n

Para os especialistas que acompanham as promessas de redu\u00e7\u00e3o de emiss\u00f5es, os compromissos assumidos pelos latino-americanos em seus INDCs, no geral, foram fortes. \u201cM\u00e9xico e Brasil<\/a> se destacam entre eles. A Venezuela desapontou, n\u00e3o apresentou documento algum\u201d, comenta Viscidi.<\/p>\n

Cumprir a meta do documento n\u00e3o ser\u00e1 uma miss\u00e3o muito simples para todos os pa\u00edses da regi\u00e3o. Na gera\u00e7\u00e3o de energia, por exemplo, a Col\u00f4mbia<\/a> est\u00e1 substituindo algumas hidrel\u00e9tricas por usinas de carv\u00e3o. \u201cVemos que est\u00e3o seguindo o rumo de uma matriz mais \u2018suja\u2019, o uso do carv\u00e3o est\u00e1 crescendo\u201d, adiciona.<\/p>\n

Lidar com as emiss\u00f5es do setor de transporte, que crescem em toda a Am\u00e9rica Latina, tamb\u00e9m ser\u00e1 um fator decisivo at\u00e9 a chegada de 2020. Especialistas avaliam que uma medida muito importante \u00e9 a implementa\u00e7\u00e3o de padr\u00f5es de efici\u00eancia dos combust\u00edveis. \u201cOs Estados Unidos fizeram isso e tiveram um enorme impacto na redu\u00e7\u00e3o de emiss\u00f5es, por meio da queda da demanda por petr\u00f3leo\u201d, exemplifica Viscidi.<\/p>\n

Em forma para 2020<\/h2>\n

As institui\u00e7\u00f5es que apoiam o desenvolvimento regional, como o BID, prometem trabalhar para que os latino-americanos estejam em \u201cboa forma\u201d quando 2020 chegar, para que diversos setores da economia j\u00e1 tenham registrado uma queda significativa de emiss\u00f5es dos gases que provocam o aquecimento do planeta.<\/p>\n

Mesmo com todo o empenho de governos, alguns pa\u00edses t\u00eam que lidar com o poder de grandes ind\u00fastrias, que tentam barrar as mudan\u00e7as, pontua Amin. \u201cUma coisa boa na Am\u00e9rica Latina \u00e9 que a regi\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 t\u00e3o depende de combust\u00edveis f\u00f3sseis se comparada com a \u00c1sia e algumas partes dos Estados Unidos. Muitos pa\u00edses geram a energia a partir de hidrel\u00e9tricas\u201d.<\/p>\n

Diante das mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas em curso, o uso da fonte h\u00eddrica na gera\u00e7\u00e3o de energia traz outro desafio: \u00e9 preciso pensar em como aumentar a resili\u00eancia das usinas. E as secas recentes, principalmente no Sudeste do Brasil, j\u00e1 indicam a dificuldade que pode surgir nos pr\u00f3ximos anos.<\/p>\n

A busca por alternativas parece j\u00e1 ter come\u00e7ado. Desde a COP de Copenhague, em 2009, pa\u00edses da regi\u00e3o passaram a considerar seriamente outras fontes renov\u00e1veis, e a Am\u00e9rica Latina viveu um aumento da participa\u00e7\u00e3o de usinas solar<\/a> e e\u00f3lica<\/a>, que ficaram mais competitivas.<\/p>\n

\u201cQuando olhamos para China, \u00c1frica do Sul e outros pa\u00edses asi\u00e1ticos podemos dizer que os latino-americanos est\u00e3o bem a frente, principalmente Chile, Brasil e M\u00e9xico. H\u00e1 muita\u00a0 lideran\u00e7a pol\u00edtica vinda da regi\u00e3o\u201d, conclui Amal-Lee Amin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cMitiga\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 o principal assunto, mas adapta\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 importante tamb\u00e9m\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40000225,"featured_media":50022915,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_has_post_settings":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[50039920,50039922],"tags":[50040023,50029748],"hashtags":[],"country":[50003526,50003538,50003542],"class_list":["post-50004075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-clima","category-energia","tag-mitigacao-climatica","tag-negociacoes","country-brasil-pt-br","country-mexico-pt-br","country-venezuela-pt-br"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n2020 ser\u00e1 o ano da "virada" para Am\u00e9rica Latina | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201cMitiga\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 o principal assunto, mas adapta\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 importante tamb\u00e9m\u201d\" 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