{"id":37455,"date":"2007-04-10T14:45:00","date_gmt":"2007-04-10T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-09-24T10:32:37","modified_gmt":"2020-09-24T10:32:37","slug":"37455","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/37455\/","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u76ca\u5347\u9ad8\u7684\u5371\u9669\u6d6a\u6f6e"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>\u6cbf\u6d77\u4f4e\u6d3c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u707e\u5bb3\u548c\u73af\u5883\u5371\u9669\u5730\u533a\u90fd\u591a\u5f97\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5c06\u52a0\u5927\u8fd9\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/yosemite.epa.gov\/oar\/globalwarming.nsf\/content\/ResourceCenterPublicationsSeaLevelRiseIndex.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener 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href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadialogue.net\/article\/show\/single\/ch\/869--The-waters-of-life-may-turn-to-poison-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u957f\u6c5f<\/a>\uff09\u7684\u51b2\u79ef\u5e73\u539f\u548c\u6cbf\u6d77\u591a\u6c14\u65cb\u5730\u533a\uff08\u5982\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7279\u70b9\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6d2a\u6c34\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u3002\u6c34\u5728\u5efa\u8bbe\u540e\u7684\u5730\u9762\u4e0a\u6d41\u5f97\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u6d2a\u5cf0\u548c\u6c34\u707e\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u4e0b\u6c34\u7cfb\u7edf\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u76f8\u5e94\u6539\u9020\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8bb8\u591a\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5f00\u53d1\u8005\u4eec\u62bd\u5e72\u4e86\u6e7f\u5730\u7684\u6c34\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u8fd9\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u759f\u75be\u7684\u8086\u8650\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e3a\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u5f00\u8f9f\u51fa\u5b9d\u8d35\u7684\u571f\u5730\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u6d77\u6f6e\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u6d2a\u707e\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f13\u51b2\u5730\u5e26\u3002\u7279\u522b\u5728\u4e09\u89d2\u6d32\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u571f\u5730\u786c\u5316\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%8B%E6%B0%B4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5730\u4e0b\u6c34<\/a>\u4f4d\u4e0b\u964d\u5f15\u8d77\u6c89\u6dc0\u3001\u6c34\u6cbb\u7406\u5f15\u8d77\u6c89\u79ef\u7387\u51cf\u5c0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6d2a\u707e\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u5e38\u589e\u52a0\u73af\u5883\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5e26\u6765\u6d2a\u707e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5bb3\u7684\u662f\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u793e\u533a\u548c\u8d2b\u56f0\u4eba\u7fa4\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6d2a\u707e\u771f\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u91c7\u53d6\u4fdd\u62a4\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u9002\u5e94\u6216\u9003\u96be\uff0c\u5bcc\u88d5\u793e\u533a\u548c\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u5904\u5883\u90fd\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u5229\uff08\u8fd9\u5728\u9488\u5bf9<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hbo.com\/docs\/programs\/whentheleveesbroke\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5361\u7279\u91cc\u5a1c\u98d3\u98ce<\/a>\u4ee5\u53ca\u65b0\u5965\u5c14\u826f\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u8bba\u8bc1\u5f97\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\uff09\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u6700\u8d2b\u7a77\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5e38\u5e38\u88ab\u8feb\uff08\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u660e\u786e\u5730\u8fd8\u662f\u6697\u5730\u91cc\uff09\u4f4f\u5728\u51b2\u79ef\u5e73\u539f\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u6709\u6f5c\u5728\u5371\u9669\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u94b1\u4f4f\u5728\u66f4\u9002\u5b9c\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u5728\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u589e\u52a0\u6d2a\u6c34\u6cdb\u6ee5\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u5176\u4ed6\u73af\u5883\u7834\u574f\u3002\u636e\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/pub\/reports.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a<\/a>\u300b\uff08SRES\uff09\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4ece1990\u5e74\u523021\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u5c06\u5e73\u5747\u4e0a\u534722\u523034\u5398\u7c73\u3002\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\uff08\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u8d85\u8fc71\u7c73\uff09\u6bd4\u539f\u6765\u5feb\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u683c\u9675\u5170\u5c9b\u51b0\u5ddd\u7684\u878d\u5316\u548c\u5357\u6781\u897f\u90e8\u51b0\u76d6\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5927\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u5185\u4e0a\u8ff0\u60c5\u51b5\u8fd8\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u534738\u5398\u7c73\uff0c\u7531\u98ce\u66b4\u6f6e\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u6d2a\u6c34\u7684\u53d7\u707e\u4eba\u6570\u5c31\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u4e94\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u9f13\u52b1\u4eba\u4eec\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ece\u6cbf\u6d77\u642c\u8d70\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u79bb\u5f00\u5371\u9669\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6d77\u5cb8\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b9a\u5c45\u5730\u533a\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u5c31\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u80fd\u51cf\u5c0f\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b9a\u5c45\u7ed9\u6cbf\u6d77\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u65b9\u5411\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u548c\u6d8c\u5411\u6cbf\u6d77\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u52a8\u56e0\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u8981\u9006\u8f6c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4f1a\u5f88\u8d39\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f88\u8d39\u94b1\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u65e2\u8d39\u65f6\u95f4\u53c8\u8d39\u94b1\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5c06\u4eba\u53e3\u4ece\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u8f6c\u79fb\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8003\u8651\u4e0d\u5468\u6216\u8005\u653f\u6cbb\u77ed\u89c6\uff0c\u4f1a\u7ed9\u5173\u952e\u7684\u6cbf\u6d77\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e3a\u5185\u9646\u6216\u8005\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u66f4\u9002\u5b9c\u7684\u65b0\u5740\u6253\u4e0b\u826f\u597d\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5f88\u5371\u9669\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e9f\u9700\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u8d8a\u65e9\u8d8a\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ed9\u6700\u6613\u53d7\u5bb3\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u8fc1\u79fb\u5bfb\u627e\u6709\u6548\u800c\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u57ce\u5e02\u5728\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff08\u5728\u6709\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u662f\u5426\uff09\u6bd4\u5185\u9646\u8981\u5feb\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002\u8981\u907f\u514d\u6cbf\u6d77\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u503e\u659c\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7279\u533a\uff0c\u4e0b\u6587\u5c06\u63d0\u53ca\u90a3\u91cc\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u4f7f\u60c5\u51b5\u6709\u6240\u6539\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u57ce\u5e02\u9009\u5740\u65f6\uff0c\u4ece\u6cbf\u6d77\u5e73\u539f\u6539\u5230\u6d77\u62d4\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u4f1a\u5927\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c2004\u5e74\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u6d77\u5578\u4e2d\uff0c20\u4e07\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u51e0\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u65e0\u5bb6\u53ef\u5f52\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5bb3\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u751f\u547d\u548c\u751f\u8ba1\u906d\u9047\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5371\u5bb3\uff0c\u8981\u5236\u5b9a\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u6027\u7684\u6cbf\u6d77\u5b9a\u5c45\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8fd8\u9762\u4e34\u5f88\u591a\u56f0\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9f13\u52b1\u6cbf\u6d77\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53bb\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fc4\u4eca\uff0c\u7531\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6fc0\u53d1\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u884c\u52a8\u8fd8\u975e\u5e38\u5c11\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u73b0\u5b58\u7684\u4e0e\u5929\u6c14\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e8e\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u3002\u5728\u57ce\u5e02\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e2d\u91c7\u53d6\u9002\u5e94\u63aa\u65bd\u540c\u6837\u975e\u5e38\u8d39\u94b1\u6216\u8d39\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u65b0\u533a\u57df\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5c31\u91c7\u53d6\u7c7b\u4f3c\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8981\u6bd4\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5230\u4f4d\u4e4b\u540e\u518d\u505a\u8981\u5bb9\u6613\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u8f85\u52a9\u9879\u76ee\u4e2d\u5f15\u5165\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\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align=\"right\">\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4f4e\u6d77\u62d4\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\uff08LECZ\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u6307\u7684\u662f\u9760\u8fd1\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\u3001\u6d77\u62d410\u7c73\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002\u636e2000\u5e74\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u5360\u5168\u7403\u9646\u5730\u603b\u9762\u79ef\u76842%\uff0c\u5374\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8610%\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u76846\u4ebf\u5c45\u6c11\u4e2d\uff0c\u75313.6\u4ebf\u4f4f\u5728\u57ce\u5e02\u3002\u4e0e\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u4e0d\u8db350%\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cLECZ\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u9ad8\u8fbe60%\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u4f4e\u6d77\u62d4\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u4eba\u53e3\u6700\u591a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%E5%AD%9F%E5%8A%A0%E6%8B%89%E5%9B%BD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9<\/a>\u56fd\u5360\u7b2c\u4e09\u4f4d\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u901f\u5ea6\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6cbf\u6d77\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u5c24\u5176\u4e4b\u5feb\uff1b\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9\u56fd\u6709\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e09\u89d2\u6d32\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u6709\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff0846%\uff09\u90fd\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u4f4e\u6d77\u62d4\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5fc5\u987b\u5c3d\u5feb\u5f00\u59cb\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>1990\u5e74\u52302000\u5e74\uff0c\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f4e\u6d77\u62d4\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u90fd\u662f\u5168\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u7387\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u4f4e\u6d77\u62d4\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u90fd\u7279\u522b\u5feb\u3002\u636e\u201c\u5168\u7403\u57ce\u4e61\u7ed8\u5236\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ifpri.org\/data\/gs_grump.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Global Rural-Urban Mapping 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