{"id":38310,"date":"2008-02-29T05:26:00","date_gmt":"2008-02-29T05:26:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T22:44:53","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T22:44:53","slug":"38310","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/38310\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5730\u7403\u5b89\u5168\u544a\u6025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u5fc3\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9d\u8d56\u5927\u6709\u5173\u8054\u3002\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9d\u8d56\u628a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u80c1\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u81ea\u8eab\u5bf9\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u8981\u6bd4\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9d\u8d56\u5927\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u8bbd\u523a\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u4ee5&ldquo;\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a&rdquo;\u4e3a\u501f\u53e3\uff0c\u62d6\u5ef6\u5728\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u4e0a\u7684\u6709\u6548\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u6210\u4e3a\u8ba9\u65e0\u6240\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53d8\u6210\u5fc3\u5b89\u7406\u5f97\u7684\u501f\u53e3\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u7d27\u6025\u5e94\u5bf9\u7684\u8b66\u62a5\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u548c\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u4f17\u591a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b89\u5168\u957f\u671f\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u6839\u6e90\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u91cd\u6f14\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u662f\u66b4\u529b\u548c\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u6839\u6e90\u3002\u4ece\u516c\u5143\u524d\u56db\u4e16\u7eaa\u52301260\u5e74\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Battle_of_Ain_Jalut\"><span><span>\u827e\u56e0\u8d3e\u9c81<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u6218\u5f79\uff08\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u8499\u53e4\u5165\u4fb5\u5ba3\u544a\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff09\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5386\u53f2\u4e00\u76f4\u88ab\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6218\u4e89\u6240\u4e3b\u5bb0\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u6f2b\u957f\u76841700\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e9a\u7684\u8870\u843d\u4ea7\u751f\u51fa\u4e00\u6ce2\u53c8\u4e00\u6ce2\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u706d\u4ea1\u4e86\u7f57\u9a6c\u5e1d\u56fd\uff1b\u8ba9\u4e2d\u56fd\u671d\u4ee3\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u66ff\uff1b\u628a\u62dc\u5360\u5ead\u738b\u671d\u8d76\u51fa\u5c0f\u4e9a\u7ec6\u4e9a\uff1b\u6700\u7ec8\u4ee5\u5bf9\u5df4\u683c\u8fbe\u7684\u6d17\u52ab\u5ba3\u544a\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u54c8\u91cc\u53d1\u738b\u671d\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u963f\u63d0\u62c9\u548c\u6210\u5409\u601d\u6c57\u6a2a\u626b\u5bf0\u5b87\u7684\u9738\u4e1a\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>\u51b0\u5ddd\u878d\u5316<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5b89\u5168\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\uff0c\u5371\u9669\u5374\u5f00\u59cb\u4e8e\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u51b0\u5ddd\u662f\u4e9a\u6d32\u8179\u5730\u4f17\u591a\u5927\u6cb3\u7684\u6e90\u5934\uff1a\u957f\u6c5f\u3001\u8428\u5c14\u6e29\u6c5f\uff08\u4e2d\u56fd\u5883\u5185\u79f0&ldquo;\u6012\u6c5f&rdquo;\uff09\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Syr_Darya\"><span><span>\u9521\u5c14\u6cb3<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Amu_Darya\"><span><span>\u963f\u59c6\u6cb3<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u3001\u6e44\u516c\u6cb3\u3001\u4f0a\u6d1b\u74e6\u5e95\u6c5f\u3001\u96c5\u9c81\u85cf\u5e03\u6c5f\u3001\u6052\u6cb3\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u6cb3\u3002 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href=\"https:\/\/www.environmentaldefense.org\/documents\/3566_Abruptclimatechange.pdf\"><span><span>\u62a5\u544a<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5546\u4e1a\u7f51\u7edc\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Peter_Schwatz%28futurist%29%29\"><span><span>\u5f7c\u5f97&middot;\u8212\u74e6\u8328<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u3002\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u5148\u4e0d\u7ba1\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\uff09\u4f1a\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u9762\u4e34\u538b\u529b\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5f15\u53d1\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u52a8\u8361\u3002&ldquo;\u770b\u770b90\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u7684\u7d22\u9a6c\u91cc\u5427\uff0c&rdquo;\u8212\u74e6\u8328<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2007\/04\/15\/us\/15warm.html?_r=2&amp;oref=slogin&amp;oref=slogin\"><span><span>\u8bf4<\/span><\/span><\/a>\uff0c&ldquo;\u5e72\u65f1\u5f15\u8d77\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3001\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u63f4\u52a9\u548c\u540e\u6765\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c31\u662f\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5199\u7167\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u6211\u5230\u67ec\u57d4\u5be8\u53bb\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u8fd9\u8ba9\u6211\u518d\u6b21\u60f3\u8d77\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u6587\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u53e4\u4ee3<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Khmer_Empire\"><span><span>\u9ad8\u68c9\u4eba<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u80fd\u6295\u5165\u8fd9\u4e48\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u6765\u5efa\u9020\u5434\u54e5\u7a9f\uff0c\u5b97\u6559\u70ed\u60c5\u548c\u5974\u96b6\u5236\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u6d6e\u96d5\u9576\u5d4c\u5982\u6b64\u7cbe\u7f8e\u548c\u5de7\u5999\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u4e13\u4e1a\u3001\u5a34\u719f\u548c\u4e13\u6ce8\u7684\u5de5\u5320\u3002\u9ad8\u68c9\u56fd\u738b\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u7528\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c11\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6765\u517b\u6d3b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5320\u624d\u884c\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/templates\/story\/story.php?storyId=5039980\"><span><span>\u6d1e\u91cc\u8428\u6e56<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6210\u5c31\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u6e56\u91cc\u7684\u9c7c\u867e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u86cb\u767d\u8d28\uff0c\u6e56\u6ee8\u7684\u7a3b\u7c73\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u70ed\u91cf\u3002\u96d5\u523b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5bfa\u5e99\u77f3\u96d5\u795e\u50cf\u7684\u53e4\u4ee3\u9ad8\u68c9\u5de5\u5320\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u624d\u80fd\u90fd\u662f\u5bcc\u9976\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u8d50\u4e88\u7684\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\uff08\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff09\u81ea\u7136\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u9ad8\u68c9\u5e1d\u56fd\u624d\u5982\u6b64\u5f3a\u5927\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Angkor\"><span><span>\u5434\u54e5\u7a9f<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u624d\u5f97\u4ee5\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u67ec\u57d4\u5be8\u4ecd\u7136\u53ea\u67091\uff0c300\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u4ecd\u5728\u4eab\u53d7\u7740\u6d1e\u91cc\u8428\u6e56\u7684\u539a\u8d50\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5c31\u5728\u5b83\u7684\u5317\u8fb9\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u8d85\u8fc7\u5341\u4ebf\u7684\u90bb\u56fd\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u53bb\u5e74<a href=\"https:\/\/uk.reuters.com\/article\/environmentNews\/idUKPEK13275320071214\"><span><span>\u5ba3\u5e03<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u52302030\u5e74\u5c06\u5f00\u53d1\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u6e44\u516c\u6cb3\u4e0a\u4fee\u5927\u575d\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u7ed9\u67ec\u57d4\u5be8\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/query.nytimes.com\/gst\/fullpage.html?res=9500E7DA133DF93BA15757C0A9659C8B63&amp;sec=&amp;spon=&amp;pagewanted=1\"><span><span>\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><span>\u670d\u52a1<\/span><span>\u7f51\u7edc<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u88ab\u7834\u574f\u7684\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8be5\u56fd\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u7531\u6e44\u516c\u6cb3\u4e0e\u6d1e\u91cc\u8428\u6e56\u5171\u540c\u6784\u6210\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5267\u53d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5192\u957f\u671f\u751f\u6001\u707e\u96be\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u751f\u6001\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6784\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u548c\u4e2d\u592e\u60c5\u62a5\u5c40\uff08CIA\uff09\u524d\u9996\u8111\u3001\u5bf9\u5916\u5173\u7cfb\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4f1a\u957f\u3001\u6d77\u519b\u4e0a\u5c06\u548c\u56db\u661f\u4e0a\u5c06\u4e00\u8d77\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/United_States_Congress\"><span><span>\u56fd\u4f1a<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u4e0a\u4f5c\u8bc1\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ecf\u5386\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\u8fd8\u5f88\u7f55\u89c1\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u56db\u6708\u5728\u4f17\u9662\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u81ea\u7ed9\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story\/experts-warn-lawmakers-about-oil\/story.aspx?guid=%7B09D6043E-B7E4-4692-9A6D-C7E369E26F22%7D\"><span><span>\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u3002\u6211\u60ca\u559c\u5730\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u4e94\u4e2a\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u5929\u5dee\u5730\u522b\uff0c\u4f46\u8bc1\u8a00\u5374\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u5c31\u5728\u8fd9\u6b21\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5b89\u7406\u4f1a\u521a\u521a\u4e3e\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u540c\u4e3b\u9898<a 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