{"id":38632,"date":"2008-06-11T10:40:00","date_gmt":"2008-06-11T10:40:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T22:46:50","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T22:46:50","slug":"38632","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/4\/38632\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e16\u754c\u77f3\u6cb9\u8d70\u5411\u67af\u7aed\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u56db\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u96e8\u5929\uff0c\u56db\u4e2a\u9f13\u624b\u3001\u4e09\u4e2a\u5409\u4ed6\u624b\u3001\u4e00\u4e2a\u98ce\u7b1b\u624b\u3001\u4e24\u4e2a\u8fea\u5409\u91cc\u675c\u7ba1\u6f14\u594f\u8005\u548c\u5176\u4ed6186\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u4e61\u4e0b\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cirencester.gov.uk\/\"><span><span>\u8d5b\u4f26\u585e\u65af\u7279<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u9547\u805a\u96c6\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u5c06\u5176\u9644\u8fd1\u5730\u533a\u53d8\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u5f71\u54cd\u5c0f\u7684\u793e\u533a\uff0c\u56f4\u7740\u519c\u573a\u3001\u5de5\u827a\u54c1\u548c\u8349\u836f\u800c\u5efa\u3002<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\u7ecf\u8fc7\u96c6\u4f53\u601d\u8003\u548c\u51e0\u8f6e\u6f14\u8bf4\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u573a\u7684\u4eba\u5206\u6210\u82e5\u5e72\u5c0f\u7ec4\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u6d89\u53ca\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\u9762\uff0c\u4ece\u65e0\u6cb9\u8fd0\u8f93\u5230\u8ba9\u672c\u5730\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u53c2\u4e0e\u5b9e\u73b0&ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.transitiontowns.org\/\"><span><span>\u8fc7\u6e21\u57ce\u9547<\/span><\/span><\/a>&rdquo;\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u65e2\u5b9a\u76ee\u6807\uff1a\u51cf\u5c11\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Carbon_footprint\"><span><span>\u78b3\u8db3\u8ff9<\/span><\/span><\/a>\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u4f5c\u4e3a\u78b3\u6c22\u5316\u5408\u7269\u50a8\u5907\u51cf\u5c11\u548c\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u3002\u8ba8\u8bba\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u5c0f\u7ec4\u6c14\u6c1b\u4f4e\u6c89\u3002\u4e00\u4f4d\u524d\u571f\u6728\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u9884\u8a00\uff0c\u7535\u706f\u6ce1\u5c06\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5e76\u5632\u7b11\u5e02\u573a\u529b\u91cf\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u6167\u53ef\u4ee5\u62ef\u6551\u5730\u7403\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd&ldquo;\u9b54\u6756&rdquo;\u7406\u8bba\u7f6e\u4e4b\u4e00\u7b11\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u591a\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f1a\u8bae\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u602a\u5f02\u4e4b\u4e3e\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u9ad8\u7ba1\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u957f\u3001\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u548c\u987e\u95ee\u62d2\u7edd\u63a5\u53d7&ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hubbert_peak_theory\"><span><span>\u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c<\/span><\/span><\/a>&rdquo;\u7406\u8bba&mdash;&mdash;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Royal_Dutch_Shell\"><span><span>\u58f3\u724c<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u5730\u8d28\u5b66\u5bb6<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hubbertpeak.com\/Hubbert\/\"><span><span>\u9a6c\u91cc\u6069&middot;\u91d1&middot;\u54c8\u4f2f\u7279<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u4e8e1950\u5e74\u4ee3\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e0d\u4e45\u5c06\u8fdb\u5165\u8870\u7aed\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u5269\u4f59\u7684\u50a8\u5907\uff0c\u8d2c\u4f4e\u4e86\u79d1\u6280\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u529b\u91cf\u5f71\u54cd\u672a\u6765\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6cb9\u4ef7\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u6bcf\u6876<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2008\/BUSINESS\/05\/22\/oil.pricessurge.ap\/\"><span>135<\/span><\/a>\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7eaa\u5f55\uff0c\u6bd4\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e861000%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hydrocarbon\"><span><span>\u78b3\u6c22\u5316\u5408\u7269<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u65f6\u4ee3\u7ec8\u7ed3\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u5df2\u6e17\u5165\u4e3b\u6d41\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4e1a\u5185\u4eba\u58eb\u73b0\u5728\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u9650\u5236\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u731b\u70c8\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4e00\u6837\u5927\u3002\u547c\u5401\u52a0\u5927\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u4ee5\u7f13\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9650\u5236\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6210\u4e862008\u5e744\u6708\u4e16\u754c\u4e3b\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8\u957f\u4eec<a href=\"https:\/\/www.opec.org\/opecna\/Speeches\/2008\/11IEF%20ClosingStatement.pdf\"><span><span>\u5728\u7f57\u9a6c<span>\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a>\u8bf8\u591a\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u8981\u70b9\u3002\u51e0\u5468\u540e\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www2.goldmansachs.com\/our-firm\/index.html\"><span><span>\u9ad8\u76db<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.opec.org\/home\/\"><span><span>\u6b27\u4f69\u514b<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u90e8\u957f\u4eec<a title=\"Analyst warns of oil at $200 a barrel\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/70b4ef0a-1b91-11dd-9e58-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=f2b40164-cfea-11dc-9309-0000779fd2ac.html\"><span><span>\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e24\u5e74\u5185\u6cb9\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230<\/span>200<span>\u7f8e\u5143<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5cf0\u503c\u8bba\u8005\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u5417\uff1f\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u751f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c\u5373\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u51b3\u5fc3\u8131\u8d2b\uff0c\u800c\u897f\u65b9\u4e0d\u613f\u653e\u5f03\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5962\u4f88\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7684\u8001\u6cb9\u7530\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u5438\u5e72\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf4\u6708\u4efd\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\u8fd10.5%\uff0c\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8fd9\u6761\u6765\u81ea\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u4ea7\u6cb9\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u9707\u60ca\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u5c31\u5728\u4e94\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u5176\u4ea7\u91cf\u8fd8\u4ee512%\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4fc4\u56fd\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u9ad8\u7ba1\u4eec\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/markets.ft.com\/tearsheets\/performance.asp?s=ru:LKOH\"><span><span>\u5362\u514b\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u526f\u603b\u88c1\u5217\u5965\u5c3c\u5fb7&middot;\u8d39\u987f\u544a\u8bc9\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u79f0\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd<a title=\"Fears emerge over Russia\u2019s oil output\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/282adfd4-0a4c-11dd-b5b1-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=f2b40164-cfea-11dc-9309-0000779fd2ac.html\"><span><span>\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c<\/span>.<\/span><\/a>\u3002 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4ec5\u4ec5\u51e0\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4ea7\u6cb9\u56fd\u548c\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Saudi_Arabia\"><span><span>\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c<a title=\"Saudis put off longer-term oil capacity rise\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/36b36e2a-0efe-11dd-9646-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=f2b40164-cfea-11dc-9309-0000779fd2ac.html\"><span><span>\u8ba1\u5212\u6682\u505c\u63d0\u9ad8\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u80fd<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u3002\u6c99\u7279\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8\u957f\u963f\u91cc&middot;\u7eb3\u4f0a\u7c73\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u6240\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6bcf\u65e5\u4ea7\u80fd\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6269\u5927\u5230\u9ad8\u4e8e1,250\u4e07\u6876\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5728\u5927\u529b\u6295\u5165\u8d85\u8fc7200\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u660e\u5e74\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u3002\u6c99\u7279\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u963f\u535c\u675c\u62c9\u56fd\u738b\u5219\u8bf4\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u76f4\u767d\uff1a&ldquo;\u6211\u4e0d\u7792\u4f60\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u53d1\u73b0\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u544a\u8bc9\u4ed6\u4eec\uff0c&lsquo;\u4e0d\uff0c\u5728\u5730\u4e0b\u7559\u7740\u5427\uff0c\u771f\u4e3b\u4fdd\u4f51\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b50\u5b59\u9700\u8981\u5b83\u3002&rsquo;&rdquo;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5c06\u9700\u8981\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002\u56e0\u800c\uff0c\u6c99\u7279\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u5728\u6cb9\u7530\u4e0a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u8d28\u95ee\uff0c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u80fd\u5426\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ea7\u91cf\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7ecf\u5386\u4e8675\u5e74\u7684\u5f00\u91c7\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u77ff\u85cf\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u5356\u5b8c\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u7eb3\u4f0a\u7c735\u670816\u65e5\u7684\u58f0\u660e\u79f0\uff0c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f<a title=\"Saudis boost oil output after US pressure\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/be0d6daa-2347-11dd-b214-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=f2b40164-cfea-11dc-9309-0000779fd2ac.html\"><span><span>\u5c06\u7565\u5fae\u589e\u52a0\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/a>\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u7f13\u89e3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4f5c\u7528\u751a\u5fae\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff1a\u5f53\u6c99\u7279\u751f\u4ea7\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u65f6\uff0c\u5c11\u91cf\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u7f13\u51b2\u5c31\u88ab\u8fd9\u79cd\u62c5\u5fe7\u4fb5\u8680\u6389\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u79cd\u63aa\u65bd\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u4e8b\u4e0e\u613f\u8fdd\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u628a\u4ef7\u683c\u63a8\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8&mdash;&mdash;\u4e0e\u8981\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u4e54\u6cbb&middot;W&middot;\u5e03\u4ec0\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u9a70\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u771f\u6b63\u77e5\u9053\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u77f3\u6cb9\u5de5\u4e1a\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u60c5\u51b5\u5982\u4f55\u3002\u6c99\u7279\u9996\u90fd\u5229\u96c5\u5f97\u6212\u5907\u68ee\u4e25\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u91d1\u878d\u670d\u52a1\u516c\u53f8<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bernstein.com\/Public\/story.aspx?nid=163\"><span><span>\u6851\u798f\u5fb7<\/span>&#8211;<span>\u4f2f\u6069\u65af\u5766<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u4eec\uff0c\u6c42\u52a9\u4e8e\u536b\u661f\u6765\u7aa5\u63a2\u5176\u77f3\u6cb9\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u82b1\u4e86\u4e5d\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u76d1\u89c6\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u94bb\u63a2\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6cb9\u7530<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ghawar\"><span><span>\u52a0\u74e6\u5c14<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u8870\u51cf\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff1a\u8981\u5728\u52a0\u74e6\u5c14\u8001\u6cb9\u7530\u5317\u90e8\u6324\u538b\u51fa\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6cb9\uff0c\u4e0e\u8be5\u56fd\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u548c\u5730\u8d28\u5b66\u5bb62004\u5e74\u7684\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u5fc5\u987b\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u52a0\u74e6\u5c14\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u6295\u8d44\u94f6\u884c\u5bb6<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Matthew_Simmons\"><span><span>\u9a6c\u4fee&middot;\u897f\u8499\u65af<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u66f4\u4e3a\u6697\u6de1\u3002\u4ed6\u62ff\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e0d\u6253\u7b97\u5c06\u65e5\u4ea7\u91cf\u6269\u5927\u52301,500\u4e07\u6876\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u8be5\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u594b\u529b\u907f\u514d\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u8870\u7aed\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u897f\u8499\u65af\u5199\u4e86\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.twilightinthedesert.com\/\"><span><span>\u6c99\u6f20\u9ec4\u660f<\/span><\/span><\/a>&mdash;&mdash;\u5373\u5c06\u6765\u4e34\u7684\u6c99\u7279\u77f3\u6cb9\u5371\u673a\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c2005\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\uff0c\u64ad\u4e0b\u4e86\u6000\u7591\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u7684\u79cd\u5b50\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u4ed4\u7ec6\u9605\u8bfb20\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u4eec\u64b0\u5199\u7684200\u7bc7\u6280\u672f\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4ee5\u7535\u5b50\u5f62\u5f0f\u50a8\u5b58\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u5219\u5728\u5f97\u514b\u8428\u65af\u5dde\u8fbe\u62c9\u65af\u90ca\u533a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spe.org\/spe-app\/spe\/index.jsp\"><span><span>\u77f3\u6cb9\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u534f\u4f1a<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u67dc\u4e2d\u843d\u6ee1\u7070\u5c18\uff0c\u4ed6\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u6c99\u7279\u7684\u6cb9\u7530\u5f00\u91c7\u8d77\u6765\u8981\u8fdc\u8fdc\u590d\u6742\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u5176\u8870\u9000\u6bd4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u79d8\u5bc6\u738b\u56fd\u613f\u610f\u62ab\u9732\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u66f4\u5feb\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u4e3a\u4eba\u6240\u77e5\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6837\u4e0d\u5bb9\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u5e2e\u52a9\u7f8e\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cia.gov\/\"><span><span>\u4e2d\u592e\u60c5\u62a5\u5c40<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u7ed8\u5236\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5269\u4f59\u5927\u578b\u77f3\u6cb9\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u4e2d\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u8ba9\u4ed6\u6ee1\u610f\uff0c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u4e8e\u662f\u57282001\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u51e0\u4e2a\u5927\u578b\u3001\u8001\u7684\u3001\u6b63\u5728\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6cb9\u7530\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u81ea1970\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5c1a\u672a\u53d1\u73b0\u80fd\u4e0e\u4e4b\u5ab2\u7f8e\u7684\u6cb9\u7530\u3002\u6bcf\u5929\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u6bcf\u4e94\u6876\u77f3\u6cb9\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u4e00\u6876\u662f\u6765\u81ea40\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u8001\u6cb9\u7530\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u768430\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u65e5\u4ea7\u91cf\u80fd\u8d85\u8fc7100\u4e07\u6876\u6cb9\u7530\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u6cb9\u7530\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\u90fd\u5927\u5927\u7f29\u6c34\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u968f\u7740\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u4ea7\u91cf\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d&mdash;&mdash;\u6709\u65f6\u5267\u70c8\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u4ee5\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Cantarell_Field\"><span><span>\u574e\u5854\u96f7\u5c14<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u8be5\u6cb9\u75301976\u5e74\u88ab\u4e00\u4f4d\u6e14\u6c11\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u9876\u5cf0\u65f6\u671f\u65e5\u4ea7\u91cf\u8d85\u8fc7200\u4e07\u6876\u3002\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u8be5\u6cb9\u7530\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u4ea7\u91cf\u51cf\u5c1124%\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u540c\u6837\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf&mdash;&mdash;\u5c3d\u7ba1\u901f\u5ea6\u6162\u4e00\u4e9b&mdash;&mdash;\u5728\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6cb9\u7530\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u62ec\u56db\u5927\u6cb9\u7530\uff1a\u52a0\u74e6\u5c14\u3001\u574e\u5854\u96f7\u5c14\u3001\u79d1\u5a01\u7279\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Burgan_Field\"><span><span>\u5e03\u5c14\u7518<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Daqing_oilfields\"><span><span>\u5927\u5e86<\/span><\/span><\/a>\uff08\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ed1\u9f99\u6c5f\u7701\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u539f\u5730\u8e0f\u6b65\uff1a\u6bcf\u5e74\u65b0\u589e\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\uff0c\u591a\u8fbe\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7528\u4e8e\u586b\u8865\u8001\u6cb9\u7530\u51cf\u4ea7\u7684\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u897f\u8499\u65af\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u6210\u4e86\u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u6709\u529b\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u7f51\u7ad9\u6563\u5e03\u524d\u666f\u6697\u6de1\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u7f51\u7ad9\u8fd8\u6709\u5b66\u672f\u6c14\u6c1b\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u5219\u66f4\u52a0\u5371\u8a00\u8038\u542c\uff0c\u548c\u51bb\u5e72\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u751f\u5b58\u624b\u518c\u5e7f\u544a\u6709\u4e00\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u54c8\u4f2f\u7279\u57281956\u5e74\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ea7\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u57281965\u5e74\u81f31970\u5e74\u89c1\u9876\u3002\u4ed6\u540e\u6765\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8bc1\u5b9e\u6ca1\u6709\u5176\u8ffd\u968f\u8005\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u90a3\u6837\u53ef\u9760\u3002\u54c8\u4f2f\u7279\u6a21\u578b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6709\u9650\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u5927\u81f4\u5448\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\u949f\u5f62\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5cf0\u503c\u540e\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u8f6c\u5411\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6df7\u4e71\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u662f\u9a6c\u8f66\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u897f\u8499\u65af\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c\u8bba\u628a\u4ed6\u63a8\u5411\u4e86\u5546\u4e1a\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u8fc7\u53bb\u5e38\u5e38\u5360\u636e\u7740\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u51c0\u503c\u4f30\u8ba1\u8d85\u8fc730\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ebf\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\u6295\u8d44\u8005<a href=\"https:\/\/www.boonepickens.com\/\"><span>T<span>&middot;\u5e03\u6069&middot;\u76ae\u80af\u65af<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Richard_Rainwater\"><span><span>\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7&middot;\u96f7\u6069\u6c83\u7279<\/span><\/span><\/a>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u6301\u6709\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c\u8bba\u83b7\u5229\u30025\u670815\u65e5\uff0c\u76ae\u80af\u65af\u4e0b\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd20\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8ba2\u5355\uff0c\u8d2d\u4e70\u8ba1\u5212\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Texas_Panhandle\"><span><span>\u5fb7\u5dde\u5317<span>\u90e8\u72ed\u957f\u5730\u5e26<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a>\u5b89\u88c5\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.enn.com\/top_stories\/article\/36337\"><span> <span>\u9996\u6279<\/span>667<span>\u53f0\u98ce\u529b\u6da1\u8f6e\u673a<\/span><\/span><\/a>\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba1\u5212\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u5b89\u88c52,500\u53f0\u98ce\u529b\u6da1\u8f6e\u673a\uff0c\u5efa\u9020\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u529b\u53d1\u7535\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u5bf9\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u6b63\u65e5\u76ca\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u56fd\u9645\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u9ad8\u7ba1\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u5185\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/markets.ft.com\/tearsheets\/performance.asp?s=us:COP\"><span><span>\u5eb7\u83f2\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u8a79\u59c6\u65af&middot;\u9a6c\u5c14\u74e6\u548c\u6cd5\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/markets.ft.com\/tearsheets\/performance.asp?s=fr:FP\"><span><span>\u9053\u8fbe\u5c14\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u9a6c\u54f2\u777f\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u90fd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u77f3\u6cb9\u65e5\u4ea7\u91cf\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc71\u4ebf\u6876\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u77f3\u6cb9\u6d88\u8d39\u56fd\u7684\u76d1\u7763\u673a\u6784&mdash;&mdash;\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u673a\u6784(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/\"><span>IEA<\/span><\/a>),\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u5728\u4e03\u5e74\u4e2d\u9700\u8981\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u52302030\u5e74\uff0c\u65e5\u4ea7\u91cf\u9700\u8981\u589e\u52a01,600\u4e07\u6876\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u9a6c\u5c14\u74e6\u548c<span>\u9a6c\u54f2\u777f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u56e0\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c\u8bba\u8005\u800c\u5927\u4e3a\u5149\u706b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4e1a\u5185\u9ad8\u7ba1\u548c\u90e8\u957f\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7684&ldquo;\u6613\u91c7\u77f3\u6cb9&rdquo;\u6b63\u5728\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u969c\u788d&mdash;&mdash;\u5982\u5c3c\u65e5\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u52a8\u8361\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u59a8\u788d\u4fc4\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u5de5\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u56fd\u6709\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u6291\u5236\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u80fd\u6e90\u6f5c\u529b\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb&mdash;&mdash;\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u516c\u53f8\u5bf9\u5269\u4f59\u7684<\/span>24,000-44,000\u4ebf\u6876\u77f3\u6cb9\u8fdb\u884c\u5f00\u91c7\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u662f\u51c6\u5907\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5f00\u91c7\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f7f\u7528<a href=\"https:\/\/www.geology.wisc.edu\/courses\/g115\/oil\/4.html\"><span><span>\u6c34\u5e73\u94bb\u5b54<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u7b49\u6280\u672f\u4ece\u8001\u6cb9\u7530\u6324\u51fa\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u66f4\u8270\u96be\u7684\u5730\u5f62\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u50a8\u5907\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\uff0c\u4e5f\u63d0\u5021\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u51cf\u5c11\u6d6a\u8d39\u3002\u4ece\u5149\u6e90\u5230\u53e3\u7ea2\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4e1a\u5185\u9ad8\u7ba1\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u5728\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6cb9\u7530\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u5317\u6d77\u548c\u963f\u62c9\u65af\u52a0\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u6cb9\u7530\uff0c\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\u3002(\u6851\u798f\u5fb7-\u4f2f\u6069\u65af\u5766\u516c\u53f8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6b27\u4f69\u514b\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u70b9\u3002\uff09\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u975e\u4f20\u7edf\u6cb9\u7530\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<a href=\"https:\/\/www.energy.gov.ab.ca\/OilSands\/oilsands.asp\"><span><span>\u963f\u5c14\u4f2f\u7279<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u7701\u548c\u5728\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Orinoco_Belt\"><span><span>\u5965\u91cc\u8bfa\u79d1\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e26<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u7684\u6cb9\u7530\uff0c\u6bd4\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u7684\u50a8\u91cf\u8981\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u5317\u6781\u5b9d\u5e93\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u50a8\u91cf\u5de8\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u3001\u7164\u70ad\u3001\u7389\u7c73\u3001\u7518\u8517\u3001\u6d77\u85fb\u548c\u706b\u9e21\u5185\u810f\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u524d\u9014\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u80fd\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u6c7d\u8f66\u70ed\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.deloitte.com\/dtt\/section_node\/0,1042,sid%253D26551,00.html\"><span><span>\u5fb7\u52e4\u54a8\u8be2<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u987e\u95ee\u7ea6\u745f\u592b&middot;\u65af\u5766\u5c3c\u65af\u7f57\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6cb9\u7530\u5728\u5e95\u7279\u5f8b\u7684\u5730\u4e0b\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u7528\u66f4\u4e3a\u8282\u80fd\u7684\u6c7d\u8f66\u6362\u4e0b\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684&ldquo;\u6cb9\u8001\u864e&rdquo;\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u53ef\u4ee5\u8282\u7701\u51e0\u767e\u4e07\u6876\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u884c\u4e1a\u987e\u95ee\u516c\u53f8<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cera.com\/aspx\/cda\/public1\/home\/home.aspx\"><span><span>\u5251\u6865\u80fd\u6e90\u7814\u7a76\u534f\u4f1a<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u7684\u5f7c\u5f97&middot;\u6770\u514b\u900a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u91cf\u5c06\u5448\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a&ldquo;\u5728\u7f13\u6162\u4e0b\u964d\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9ad8\u4f4d\u8d77\u4f0f\u5341\u5e74\u6216\u51e0\u5341\u5e74&rdquo;\u7684\u6001\u52bf\u3002\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5176\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u9884\u8ba12030\u5e74\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6210\u4e3a\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5251\u6865\u80fd\u6e90\u7814\u7a76\u534f\u4f1a\u4e5f\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5386\u8d77\u4f0f\u3002\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u76ee\u524d\u95f2\u7f6e\u7684\u4ea7\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u5904\u4e8e\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u88ab\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5904\u4e8e\u71c3\u6599\u9965\u6e34\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6d88\u8017\u6389\u4e86\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u95f2\u7f6e\u4ea7\u80fd\u4e3a\u65e5\u4ea7200-300\u4e07\u6876\uff0c\u6570\u91cf\u592a\u5c11\uff0c\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002\u8fd9\u5df2\u7ecf\u8ba9\u56fd\u9645\u6cb9\u4ef7\u62ac\u5347\u4e0d\u5c11\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u6ca1\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u5177\u4f53\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u9009\u62e9\u5177\u6709\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u963f\u5c14\u4f2f\u7279\u9879\u76ee\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u800c\u6c61\u67d3\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5f00\u91c7\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u6d88\u8017\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u6c34\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u5965\u91cc\u8bfa\u79d1\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e26\u6295\u5165\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u603b\u7edf<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hugo_Ch%C3%A1vez\"><span><span>\u4e4c\u6208&middot;\u67e5\u97e6\u65af<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u4f7f\u5176\u5145\u6ee1\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5f00\u91c7\u5317\u6781\u5de8\u5927\u50a8\u5907\u5e76\u8fd0\u9001\u5230\u5cb8\u7684\u6280\u672f\u5c1a\u672a\u53d1\u660e\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u3001\u98ce\u80fd\u548c\u706b\u9e21\u5185\u810f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u80fd\u6e90\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u673a\u6784\u79f0\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7acb\u5373\u9881\u5e03\u589e\u52a0\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u71c3\u6599\u548c\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5229\u7528\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u6b27\u4f69\u514b\u57282030\u5e74\u524d\u5c06\u65e5\u4ea7\u91cf\u63d0\u9ad81,150\u4e07\u6876\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u6765\u81ea\u6c99\u7279\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u96be\u4ee5\u6ee1\u8db3\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u6bd4\u6b27\u4f69\u514b\u57281980\u81f32006\u5e74\u589e\u4ea7\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u8fd8\u9ad8\u51fa50%\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u4e1a\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u719f\u7ec3\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u77ed\u7f3a\uff08\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u9f84\u63a5\u8fd150\u5c81\uff09\uff0c\u94a2\u6750\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5173\u952e\u90e8\u4ef6\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u7d27\u7f29\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u3001\u65e5\u76ca\u8001\u5316\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u8bbe\u5907\u77ed\u7f3a\u6210\u4e3a\u62e6\u8def\u864e\uff0c\u800c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e0d\u80fd&mdash;&mdash;\u6216\u4e0d\u613f&mdash;&mdash;\u63f4\u624b\u65bd\u6551\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u529e\uff1f\u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c\u8bba\u8005\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u539f\u56e0\u5374\u662f\u9519\u7684\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8c03\u8282\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\uff0c\u9ad8\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6700\u7ec8\u6291\u5236\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u7ed9\u5177\u6709\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u7cbe\u795e\u7684\u4eba\u4ee5\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6765\u601d\u8003\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u4fdd\u62a4\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7edd\u5999\u9014\u5f84\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u957f\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u65e9\u5df2\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u6851\u5fb7\u798f-\u4f2f\u6069\u65af\u5766\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5c3c\u5c14&middot;\u9ea6\u514b\u9a6c\u6d2a\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u66f4\u4e3a\u9965\u6e34\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6b27\u4f69\u514b\u5185\u90e8\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u6269\u5927\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u3002&ldquo;\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\uff08\u53d1\u8fbe\uff09\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u7f29\u51cf\u5417\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5fc5\u987b\u66f4\u9ad8\u5417\uff1f&rdquo;\u4ed6\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u95ee\u9053\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7559\u4e0b\u60ac\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff1a&ldquo;\u57fa\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\uff08\u589e\u957f\uff093.5%\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u96f6\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u90e8\u95e8\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u60c5\u62a5\u7f72(<a 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href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Jeremy_Leggett\"><span><span>\u6770\u91cc\u7c73&middot;\u83b1\u683c\u7279<\/span><\/span><\/a>\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u300a\u4e00\u534a\u5df2\u53bb\uff1a\u77f3\u6cb9\u3001\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u3001\u70ed\u7a7a\u6c14\u548c\u5168\u7403\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u673a\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u5bd3\u8a00\u4e2d\uff0c\u83b1\u683c\u7279\u5199\u9053\uff1a&ldquo;\u623f\u4ef7\u5d29\u584c\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u8dcc&hellip;&hellip;\u516c\u53f8\u7834\u4ea7&hellip;&hellip;\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684\u4eba\u5931\u4e1a\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u5931\u4e1a\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u5ea6\u5bcc\u88d5\u7684\u8bbe\u6709\u8857\u5934\u5496\u5561\u5ea7\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u4eca\u65bd\u820d\u5904\u6392\u7740\u957f\u961f\uff0c\u8857\u4e0a\u4e5e\u4e10\u6210\u7fa4\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u4e1a\u5185\u9ad8\u7ba1\u5e76\u4e0d\u8ba4\u540c\uff0c\u89c6\u4e4b\u4e3a\u6563\u5e03\u672b\u65e5\u8bba\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u5f88\u574f\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u6b6a\u66f2\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u5de6\u53f3\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5a01\u529b\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u770b\u6cd5\u4e5f\u80fd\u6566\u4fc3\u4eba\u4eec\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u80fd\u6e90\u3002&ldquo;\u8fc7\u6e21\u57ce\u9547&rdquo;\u7684\u98ce\u7b1b\u624b\u548c\u8fea\u5409\u91cc\u675c\u7ba1\u6f14\u594f\u8005\u5df2\u7136\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u524d\u65b9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206&mdash;&mdash;\u5373\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7ecf\u5386\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u707e\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<a 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