{"id":38991,"date":"2008-10-10T23:12:00","date_gmt":"2008-10-10T23:12:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T22:49:02","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T22:49:02","slug":"38991","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/38991\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e94\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u505a\u51fa\u8d21\u732e (\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206)"},"content":{"rendered":"

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2008\u5e746\u670827\u65e5\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u524d\u9996\u76f8\u6258\u5c3c•\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14\u5148\u751f\u4e3b\u6301\u7684\u300a\u6253\u7834\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u50f5\u5c40\uff1a\u4f4e\u78b3\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5168\u7403\u534f\u8bae\u300b<\/a>\uff08Breaking the Climate Deadlock: A Global Deal for Our Low-Carbon Future<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7b80\u79f0\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14\u62a5\u544a\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u4e1c\u4eac\u6b63\u5f0f\u53d1\u5e03\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5378\u4efb\u9996\u76f8\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14\u6df1\u77e5\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u529d\u8bf4\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u6b67\u548c\u5229\u76ca\u4e89\u7aef\uff0c\u8981\u60f3\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u5fc5\u987b\u63d0\u51fa\u6709\u529b\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u5e76\u8bf4\u670d\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14\u62a5\u544a\u5bf9“\u5404\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u9700\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u5728\u672a\u676518\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u5c06\u8981\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u9009\u62e9”\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5168\u9762\u7684\u63cf\u7ed8\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u8c08\u5224\u4e2d\u7684\u82e5\u5e72\u91cd\u5927\u601d\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f“\u6211\u4eec\u7684”\u5171\u540c\u95ee\u9898<\/b> <\/p>\n

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\u6839\u636e\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a<\/a>\uff08IPCC\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u52302050\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u51cf\u6392\u7684\u6210\u672c\u533a\u95f4\u5728GDP1%\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u548c5.5%\u7684\u635f\u5931\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ea\u662f\u964d\u4f4e\u4e860.12%\u7684\u5e74GDP\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u589e\u957f\u7387\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\uff0c\u8981\u6bd4\u5229\u7387\u8c03\u6574\u3001\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u5c0f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ffd\u7565\u4e0d\u8ba1\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0cIPCC \u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u5728\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e4b\u524d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u4ee5\u672a\u6765\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u6bd4\u73b0\u6709\u6c34\u5e73\u66f4\u4f4e\u4e3a\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14\u62a5\u544a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e0b\u5217\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u51cf\u6392\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u663e\u793a\u7684\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

—<\/span>  <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f(1950-1990)\u7528\u4e8e\u56fd\u9632\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5360GDP \u76846%\u3002<\/p>\n

—<\/span>   <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7528\u4e8e\u4fdd\u9669\u4e1a\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u7ea6\u4e3aGDP \u76843%\u3002<\/p>\n

—<\/span>   <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b21\u7ea7\u8d37\u6b3e\u5371\u673a\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6210\u672c\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230GDP \u76842%\u3002<\/p>\n

—<\/span>   <\/span><\/span><\/span>2004 \u5e746 \u6708\u81f32008 \u5e746 \u6708\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4ece40 \u7f8e\u5143\/\u6876\u4e0a\u5347\u5230130 \u7f8e\u5143\/\u6876\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6210\u672c\u7ea6\u4e3aGDP \u76845%\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u52302050 \u5e74\u4eba\u5747GDP \u5c06\u7531\u76ee\u524d\u76845900 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u5347\u523015900 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u800c\u5728\u4f4e\u78b3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u52302050 \u5e74\u7684\u4eba\u5747GDP \u5c06\u572815000 \u7f8e\u5143\u81f315600 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u4f4e\u78b3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6c34\u5e73\u5c06\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u76842.5 \u500d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u6d4b\u7b97\uff0c\u51cf\u8f7b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8ba4\u771f\u52aa\u529b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u8fc5\u901f\u548c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u53ca\u65e9\u4ece\u4f4e\u8d77\u70b9\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6b65\u63d0\u9ad8\u78b3\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u5c06\u628a\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u5206\u644a\u5230\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u5176\u51cf\u81f3\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e8e2013 \u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5b9e\u884c\u51cf\u8f7b\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e89\u53d6\u52302100 \u5e74\u628a\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7b49\u4ef7\u7269\u7684\u6d53\u5ea6\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728550ppm<\/a>\uff08\u767e\u4e07\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u6d53\u5ea6\uff09\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u57282040\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u53ea\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e0.6%\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u906d\u53d7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c2040\u5e74\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u4ea7\u503c\u4ecd\u4f1a\u6bd42007 \u5e74\u7684\u9ad82.3 \u500d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6309\u7167\u5f7c\u5f97\u68ee\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/a>\u548c\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/a>\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458William R. Cline\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u6df1\u53d7\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e4b\u5bb3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u79ef\u6781\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u8981\u6bd4\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u56fd\u5bb6\u635f\u5931\u5927\u3002\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u635f\u5931\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u5404\u4e3a7\uff05\uff0c\u5373\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u66f4\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u4fc3\u8fdb\u51cf\u6392\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6211\u4eec\u521d\u6b65\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4eca\u540e\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u51cf\u6392\u7684\u5e74\u5747\u6210\u672c\u5bf9\u56fd\u6c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14\u62a5\u544a\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u6309\u7167\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u5c55\u4f4e\u78b3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u52302040\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u8981\u6bd4\u73b0\u5728\u589e\u957f6.9\u500d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u51cf\u6392\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u589e\u957f\u4e3a7.2\u500d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d4b\u7b97\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u8ba1\u5165\u51cf\u6392\u548c\u4f4e\u78b3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f4e\u78b3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u589e\u52a0\u5c31\u4e1a\u3002\u5728\u5411\u65b0\u578b\u4f4e\u78b3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u91cd\u8981\u6295\u8d44\u5e76\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u4f1a\u548c\u65e0\u9650\u5546\u673a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7200\u4e07\u4eba\u53d7\u96c7\u4e8e\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c1998\u5e74\u81f32007\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u65b0\u73af\u4fdd\u6280\u672f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4ece100\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u5347\u5230660\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u9886\u57df\u4f30\u8ba1\u5df2\u7ecf\u62e5\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7100\u4e07\u4ece\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d60%\u5728\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u5236\u9020\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u9886\u57df\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b49\u5f85\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8d8a\u957f\uff0c\u51cf\u6392\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5c31\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002\u6309\u7167\u65af\u7279\u6069\u62a5\u544a<\/a>\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u80fd\u591f\u5b9e\u73b0\u57282030\u5e74\u5c06\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u5cf0\u503c\u63a7\u5236\u5728445ppm\u81f3710ppm\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u5168\u7403GDP\u6700\u9ad8\u53ef\u80fd\u635f\u59313\uff05\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5c3d\u5feb\u91c7\u53d6\u6709\u6548\u7684\u51cf\u7f13\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u51cf\u7f13\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0d\u52a0\u4ee5\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u4ecd\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ca\u65f6\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5c06\u582a\u6bd4\u4e16\u754c\u6027\u5927\u6218\u4ee5\u53ca20\u4e16\u7eaa\u524d\u534a\u53f6\u66fe\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u3002\u5c4a\u65f6\uff0c\u5168\u7403GDP\u76845%\uff0d20%\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7070\u98de\u70df\u706d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u5411\u4f4e\u78b3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc8\u8fdb<\/p>\n

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\u672c\u6587\u7cfb\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u516c\u5171\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u6cbb\u7406\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8d44\u52a9\u8bfe\u9898\uff1a\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6311\u6218\u300b\u62a5\u544a\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4f5c\u80052008\u5e746\u670826\u65e5\u53c2\u52a0\u4e86\u7531\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e0e\u82f1\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e3e\u529e\u4e0e\u82f1\u56fd\u524d\u9996\u76f8\u6258\u5c3c•\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14\u7684“\u9ad8\u7aef\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u5411\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u4f4e\u78b3\u4e4b\u8def”\u3002\u80e1\u978d\u94a2\u5728\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5bf9\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u505a\u4e86\u7b80\u8981\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bba\u7a3f\u4e3b\u8981\u89c2\u70b9\u5df2\u7ecf\u7531\u6c14\u5019\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6574\u7406\u540e\u8f6c\u4ea4\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14\u529e\u516c\u5ba4<\/span> \u3002 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u9996\u9875\u56fe\u7247\u7531sinosplice<\/a><\/span>\u6444<\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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