{"id":39274,"date":"2009-02-09T20:30:00","date_gmt":"2009-02-09T20:30:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T22:50:47","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T22:50:47","slug":"39274","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/39274\/","title":{"rendered":"\u901a\u5f80\u4e2d\u7f8e\u643a\u624b\u5408\u4f5c\u4e4b\u8def"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u534f\u4f1a\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u548c\u76ae\u5c24\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6700\u65b0\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\uff0c50\u591a\u4f4d\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u5546\u52a1\u4e13\u5bb6\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u4e3a\u5df4\u62c9\u514b&middot;\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u540d\u4e3a<b>\u300a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u534f\u4f5c\u5e94\u5bf9\uff1a\u7f8e\u4e2d\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5408\u4f5c\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u300b<\/b>\uff0c\u7531\u4e2d\u7f8e\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u5408\u4f5c\u8ba1\u5212\u4e13\u5bb6\u7ec4\u64b0\u5199\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u8054\u5e2d\u4e3b\u4efb\u4e3a\u5317\u4eac\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u7ea6\u7ff0&middot;L&middot;\u6851\u987f\u548c\u5f53\u65f6\u5c1a\u672a\u83b7\u5f97\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8\u957f\u63d0\u540d\u7684\u6731\u68e3\u6587\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4e3a\u73ed\u5b81&middot;\u52a0\u52d2\u7279\u548c\u4e54\u7eb3\u68ee&middot;\u4e9a\u5f53\u65af\u5bf9\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u6240\u4f5c\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5168\u6587\u7684\u4e2d\u82f1\u6587\u7248\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.asiasociety.org\/taskforces\/climateroadmap\/\"><em><span>\u5728\u6b64\u4e0b\u8f7d<\/span><\/em><\/a><em>\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u524d\uff0c<span style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/1972_Nixon_visit_to_China\">1971-72<\/a><\/span>\u5e74\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb&ldquo;<span style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Rapprochement\">\u89e3\u51bb<\/a><\/span>&rdquo;\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u81ea\u4e8c\u6218\u4e4b\u540e\u7cfb\u5217\u91cd\u5927\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u5efa\u7acb\u4ee5\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u800c\u4eca\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u518d\u6b21\u4fc3\u6210\u6218\u7565\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u673a\u9047\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6b21\u662f\u8f6c\u5411\u4f4e\u78b3\u3001\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5728\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5168\u7403\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u964d\u4f4e\u53d1\u751f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5206\u522b\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u6d88\u8017\u56fd\u548c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u56fd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u5173\u952e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5728\u957f\u8fbe\u51e0\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u53d1\u6325\u9886\u5bfc\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u5267\u70c8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5982\u671f\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6b63\u503c\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u5371\u9669\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8d76\u4e0a\u4e86\u81ea<span style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Great_Depression\">\u5927\u8427\u6761<\/a><\/span>\u4ee5\u6765<span style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/national\/imf-slashes-global-forecasts-20090128-7s0g.html\">\u6700\u4e25\u91cd<\/a><\/span>\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u5177\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u3001\u65e5\u8d8b\u4e25\u91cd\u7684<span style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/59f2e050-f193-11dd-8790-0000779fd2ac.html\">\u5f71\u54cd<\/a><\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5371\u673a\u5219\u66f4\u5177\u9690\u853d\u6027\u548c\u8fdf\u7f13\u6027&mdash;&mdash;\u4f46\u662f\u540e\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5177\u707e\u96be\u6027\u548c\u957f\u671f\u6027\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u96c6\u4e2d\u7cbe\u529b\u505c\u6b62\u548c\u626d\u8f6c\u53bb\u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u81ea\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u87ba\u65cb\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u632f\u5174\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u672a\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5927\u589e\u52a0\u51cf\u5c11\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6210\u672c\u3002<span style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesonline.co.uk\/tol\/news\/world\/us_and_americas\/us_elections\/article5303652.ece\">\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a><\/span>\u548c<span style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.iht.com\/articles\/2008\/11\/09\/asia\/10china.php\">\u4e2d\u56fd<\/a><\/span>\u5404\u81ea\u5236\u5b9a\u4e86\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e00\u63fd\u5b50\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u627f\u8bfa\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u7ba1\u7406\u5f97\u5f53\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6781\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6446\u8131\u8870\u9000\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u52a0\u901f\u5411\u4f4e\u78b3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728<span style=\"\">1970<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5efa\u7acb\u65b0\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u514b\u670d\u4e86<span style=\"\">20<\/span>\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u9694\u79bb\u3001\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u5bf9\u7acb\u548c\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u654c\u5bf9\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u66fe\u5728<span style=\"\">1950<\/span>\u5230<span style=\"\">1953<\/span>\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u5728\u671d\u9c9c\u6253\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u70ed\u6218\uff0c<span style=\"\">1950<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u671f\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u9669\u4e9b\u9020\u6210\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c<span style=\"\">1960<\/span>\u5e74\u5728\u8d8a\u5357\u4ee3\u6253\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb&ldquo;\u89e3\u51bb&rdquo;\u7684\u5171\u540c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u904f\u5236\u548c\u5728\u6218\u7565\u4e0a\u5b64\u7acb\u82cf\u8054\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6548\u679c\u662f\u4fc3\u6210\u82cf\u8054\u53ca\u5176\u4e1c\u6b27\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u89e3\u4f53\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u7ed3\u675f<span style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coldwar.org\/\">\u51b7\u6218<\/a><\/span>\u5e76\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb&ldquo;\u89e3\u51bb&rdquo;\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6210\u529f\u5b9e\u884c\u5bf9\u5916\u5f00\u653e\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u4fc3\u6210\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u5feb\u901f\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\u52a0\u901f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1970\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u7684\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb&ldquo;\u89e3\u51bb&rdquo;\uff0c\u6e90\u81ea\u4e8e\u4e24\u56fd\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u5171\u540c\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6765\u81ea\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u6218\u7565\u6311\u6218\u800c\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8003\u8651\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51b3\u7b56\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u5f62\u52bf\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u5176\u53d8\u5316\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u4e3a\u6297\u8861\u82cf\u8054\u52bf\u529b\u4e0a\u5347\u6240\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5927\u56fd\u5173\u7cfb\u91cd\u7ec4\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u9ad8\u5c42\u51b3\u7b56\u542f\u52a8\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5c5e\u4e8e\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u6570\u4ebf\u4eba\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u6218\u7565\u5e03\u5c40\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5f53\u4eca\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u65e5\u76ca\u7d27\u5bc6\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5316\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5a01\u80c1\u4e0d\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u654c\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u8eab\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u7e41\u8363\u6240\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u4e0e\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u7684\u6838\u5a01\u80c1\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u66f4\u5177\u8fdf\u7f13\u6027\u548c\u6269\u6563\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed9\u6587\u660e\u793e\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5a01\u80c1\u5374\u4e1d\u6beb\u4e0d\u89c1\u5f97\u5c11\u3002\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b0\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u50cf<span style=\"\">1970<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb&ldquo;\u89e3\u51bb&rdquo;\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u7531\u4e24\u56fd\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4f5c\u51fa\u6700\u521d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u542f\u52a8\u4e00\u4e2a\u7684\u957f\u671f\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u8bc1\u660e\u6216\u8bb8\u6bd4\u6700\u521d\u7684\u9884\u60f3\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u5177\u53d8\u9769\u6027\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u521b\u9020\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6218\u7565\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u5171\u540c\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u5c06\u91ca\u653e\u5343\u5343\u4e07\u4e07\u7684\u4eba\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u521b\u9020\u529b\u3001\u806a\u660e\u624d\u667a\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u548c\u51b3\u5fc3\uff0c\u52a0\u901f\u4e16\u754c\u5411\u4f4e\u78b3\u3001\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e24\u56fd\u5747\u5df2\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u9047\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5df4\u62c9\u514b&middot;\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u51cf\u7f13\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u7684<span 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