{"id":39330,"date":"2009-02-27T08:10:00","date_gmt":"2009-02-27T08:10:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T22:51:07","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T22:51:07","slug":"39330","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/4\/39330\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u7eff\u8272\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6218\u7565\u53ca\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5408\u4f5c\u524d\u666f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5927\u9009\u83b7\u80dc\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u6765\uff0c\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u5728\u79ef\u6781\u5151\u73b0\u7ade\u9009\u671f\u95f4\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u65b9\u9762\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u540d\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005<a href=\"https:\/\/nobelprize.org\/nobel_prizes\/physics\/laureates\/1997\/chu-autobio.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6731\u68e3\u6587<\/a>\u4e3a\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8\u957f\uff0c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/John_Holdren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7ea6\u7ff0&middot;\u970d\u5c14\u5fb7\u4f26<\/a>\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\u79d1\u6280\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u51f8\u663e\u51fa\u65b0\u653f\u5e9c\u53d1\u5c55\u6e05\u6d01\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\u3002\u5c31\u804c\u4e00\u5468\u5185\uff0c\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u5373\u9a6c\u4e0d\u505c\u8e44\u5730\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e24\u4efd<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2009\/01\/26\/AR2009012602028.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u603b\u7edf\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55<\/a>\uff0c\u8d23\u4ee4\u4ea4\u901a\u90e8\u4e3a\u6c7d\u8f66\u5236\u9020\u55462011\u5e74\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u8f66\u578b\u5236\u5b9a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u8282\u80fd\u6807\u51c6,\u8981\u6c42\u73af\u4fdd\u7f72\u5141\u8bb8\u52a0\u5dde\u5bf9\u673a\u52a8\u8f66\u8f86\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u91c7\u53d6\u6bd4\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u66f4\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u6b63\u5728\u63a8\u52a8\u56fd\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc78250\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u542b200\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7528\u4e8e\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u514d\u7a0e\uff0c320\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7528\u4e8e\u5347\u7ea7\u7535\u7f51\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u5229\u7528\uff0c160\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7528\u4e8e\u964d\u4f4e\u516c\u5171\u5efa\u7b51\u80fd\u8017\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u653f\u5e9c\u4f55\u65f6\u80fd\u63a8\u52a8\u56fd\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u6db5\u76d6\u6574\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u9650\u989d\u4e0e\u8d38\u6613\u5236\u5ea6\u5c1a\u4e0d\u5f97\u800c\u77e5\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u5927\u529b\u77eb\u6b63\u5e03\u4ec0\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5404\u9879\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u79ef\u6781\u63a8\u52a8\u7eff\u8272\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u653f\u7b56\u8c03\u6574\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u610f\u4e49\u91cd\u5927\uff0c\u6216\u5c06\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u5c55\u6218\u7565\u4ea7\u751f\u79ef\u6781\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5408\u4f5c\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e8b\u5173\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6210\u8d25\u3002\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u51b3\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u65b0\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newleftreview.org\/?view=2715\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a<\/a>\u5f15\u53d1\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u4f7f\u7f8e\u4e0d\u582a\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u91cd\u8d1f\uff0c\u7f8e\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u8dcc\u5230\u5386\u53f2\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u4f7f\u73af\u5883\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u603b\u7edf\u5173\u6ce8\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5728\u6070\u6070\u662f\u5c06\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u505a\u4e3a\u7f8e\u6838\u5fc3\u8bae\u9898\u7684\u5173\u952e\u65f6\u523b\u3002\u7a81\u51fa&ldquo;\u7eff\u8272&rdquo;\uff0c\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6ce8\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u6d3b\u529b\uff0c\u91cd\u5851\u7f8e\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u5f62\u8c61\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5c06\u7ed9\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e26\u6765\u5171\u540c\u89e3\u51b3\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e24\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u5bf9\u5316\u77f3\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u662f\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u7ade\u9009\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\u3002\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u8ba1\u5212\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u672a\u6765<span style=\"\">10<\/span>\u5e74\u6295\u51651500\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7528\u4e8e\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6280\u672f\u5f00\u53d1\uff0c\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u5b9e\u65bd\u9650\u989d\u4e0e\u8d38\u6613\u673a\u5236\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u4ee5\u53ca\u79ef\u6781\u6295\u5165\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8c08\u5224\u8fdb\u7a0b\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u65e5\u76ca\u6076\u5316\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u8d28\u7591<span style=\"\">1500<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u80fd\u5426\u5f97\u4ee5\u5b9e\u65bd\u3002\u4f46\u8ba1\u5212\u5df2\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u4ea7\u751f\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u53ef\u62c5\u8d1f\u5efa\u8bbe\u7eff\u8272\u7ecf\u6d4e\u90e8\u5206\u6295\u8d44\u8d39\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u8ba1\u5212\u547c\u5401\u901a\u8fc7\u6574\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u9650\u989d\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u9f13\u52b1\u4f01\u4e1a\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u548c\u65b0\u63aa\u65bd\u9ad8\u6548\u51cf\u6392\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u3002\u65b0\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u4f1a\u63a8\u52a8\u56fd\u4f1a\u5c3d\u5feb\u901a\u8fc7\u6709\u5173\u6cd5\u6848\u3002\u62cd\u5356\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u8bb8\u53ef\u7684\u6536\u5165\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728<span style=\"\">10<\/span>\u5e74\u5185\u4e3a\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u6280\u672f\u6301\u7eed\u63d0\u4f9b<span style=\"\">1500<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7f8e\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u73af\u5883\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5171\u540c\u6311\u6218\u3002\u4ed6\u5728<span style=\"\">9<\/span>\u6708\u7ed9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u4f1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amcham-china.org.cn\/amcham\/show\/whatisnew.php?Id=89\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u64b0\u6587\u79f0<\/a>\uff1a<span style=\"\">&ldquo;<\/span>\u957f\u4e45\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u76f8\u4e92\u6307\u8d23\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a8\u5378\u81ea\u5df1\u884c\u52a8\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<span style=\"\">&rdquo; <\/span>\u786e\u5b9e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56e0\u9000\u51fa<span style=\"\">1997<\/span>\u300a\u4eac\u90fd\u8bae\u5b9a\u4e66\u300b\uff0c\u5728<span style=\"\">2007<\/span>\u5e74\u5e95\u5370\u5c3c\u5df4\u5398\u5c9b\u53ec\u5f00\u7684\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u5e7f\u53d7\u6307\u8d23\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u867d\u7136\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f46\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u65b0\u653f\u5e9c\u91cd\u65b0<span style=\"\">&ldquo;<\/span>\u6267\u638c\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u6743<span style=\"\">&rdquo;<\/span>\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u8981\u6c42\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5927\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u529b\u5ea6\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6216\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e2d\u7f8e\u672a\u6765\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u65b0\u9886\u57df\u3002\u4e2d\u7f8e\u51e0\u4e4e\u6d88\u8017\u4e16\u754c\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u6392\u653e\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u3002\u63a8\u52a8\u80fd\u6e90\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u5e94\u5bf9\u80fd\u6e90\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u4e8b\u5173\u4e24\u56fd\u91cd\u5927\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u7164\u70ad\u662f\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u5e95\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u6e90\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u964d\u4f4e\u5bf9\u7164\u70ad\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u7164\u7535\u5360\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u7684<span style=\"\">78<\/span>\uff05\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5360<span style=\"\">50<\/span>\uff05\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5728\u4ea4\u901a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5360\u4e16\u754c\u77f3\u6cb9\u6d88\u8d39\u7684<span style=\"\">25<\/span>\uff05\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<span style=\"\">60<\/span>\uff05\u7528\u4e8e\u4ea4\u901a\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u7ec4\u7ec7\u9884\u8ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c7d\u8f66\u4fdd\u6709\u91cf\u5c06\u4ece\u4e94\u5343\u591a\u4e07\u8f86\u589e\u957f\u5230<span style=\"\">2030<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u4e24\u4ebf\u4e94\u5343\u4e07\u8f86\u3002<span style=\"\">2008<\/span>\u5e74<span style=\"\">2<\/span>\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u6309\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5230<span style=\"\">2030<\/span>\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230<span style=\"\">80<\/span>\u4ebf\u5428\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6b65\u5b50\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u505a\u4e86\u79ef\u6781\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u80fd\u6e90\u77ed\u7f3a\u548c\u73af\u5883\u6076\u5316\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e86\u5728<span style=\"\">2006<\/span>\u5230<span style=\"\">2010<\/span>\u5e74\u95f4\u5c06\u5355\u4f4d\u56fd\u6c11\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u80fd\u8017\u964d\u4f4e<span style=\"\">20<\/span>\uff05\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5230<span style=\"\">2020<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u5c06\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6bd4\u91cd\u5360\u4e00\u6b21\u80fd\u6e90\u6bd4\u91cd\u7531<span style=\"\">7.5<\/span>\uff05\u63d0\u5347\u5230<span 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href=\"https:\/\/www.germanwatch.org\/klima\/ccpi.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u8d85\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u4f9d\u636e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403<span style=\"\">56<\/span>\u4e2a\u6392\u653e\u5927\u56fd\u6392\u540d\uff0c\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u6392\u5728<span 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