{"id":39914,"date":"2009-12-14T16:03:00","date_gmt":"2009-12-14T16:03:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T22:54:33","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T22:54:33","slug":"39914","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/39914\/","title":{"rendered":"\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u673a\u5236\u7814\u7a76"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u300a\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6846\u67b6\u516c\u7ea6\u300b\u7b2c\u5341\u4e94\u6b21\u7f14\u7ea6\u65b9\u4f1a\u8bae\uff08COP15\uff09\u6b63\u5728\u54e5\u672c\u54c8\u6839\u53ec\u5f00\uff0c\u5404\u65b9\u5728\u51cf\u6392\u76ee\u6807\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7acb\u573a\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u4e3a\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u666f\u6295\u4e0b\u4e86\u6d53\u91cd\u9634\u5f71\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u6c14\u5019\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u6839\u672c\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u9769\uff1f\u5982\u4f55\u66f4\u52a0\u516c\u5e73\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5206\u914d\u6709\u9650\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6392\u653e\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u969c\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5e73\u76ee \u6807\u548c\u4fdd\u62a4\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u76ee\u6807\uff1f<\/p>\n

2008\u5e74\u6ce2\u5179\u5357\u4f1a\u8bae\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08RCSD\uff09\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u5e73\u548c\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u76842012\u5e74\u540e\u56fd\u9645\u6c14\u5019\u5236\u5ea6\u65b0\u65b9\u6848——“\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u65b9\u6848”\uff08Carbon Budget Proposal\uff09\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\uff0cRCSD\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e86\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u56fd\u9645\u673a\u5236\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u673a\u5236\u3001\u8d44\u91d1\u673a\u5236\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u5236\u3001\u9075\u7ea6\u673a\u5236\u7b49\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u4fc3\u4f7f\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u516c\u5e73\u7406\u5ff5\u66f4\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u65b9\u6848\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6392\u653e\u57282020\u5e74\u524d\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\uff1b\u4ee52005\u5e74\u4e3a\u57fa\u5e74\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b02050\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u51cf\u639250\uff05\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff1b\u4ee52005\u5e74\u4eba\u53e3\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b971900\uff0d2050\u5e74\u95f4\u5168\u7403\u603b\u7684\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u4eba\u6bcf\u5e74\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u5927\u7ea6\u662f2.33\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u4eba\u5747\u7d2f\u8ba1\u6392\u653e\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6807\u51c6\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u5728\u5404\u56fd\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u516c\u5e73\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5219\u5404\u56fd\u521d\u59cb\u5206\u914d\u7684\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u4e0e\u57fa\u5e74\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u6210\u6b63\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u65b9\u6848\u4e3a\u5404\u56fd\u5206\u914d1900~2050\u5e74\u95f4\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u521d\u6b65\u6d4b\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u9644\u4ef6\u4e00<\/a>\u56fd\u5bb6\u5386\u53f2\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u900f\u652f\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u900f\u652f2\u500d\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5982\u82f1\u56fd\u900f\u652f2.7\u500d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u900f\u652f3.2\u500d\uff0c\u900f\u652f\u7a0b\u5ea6\u76f8\u5f53\u4e25\u91cd\u3002\u5c11\u6570\u975e\u9644\u4ef6\u4e00\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5982\u77f3\u6cb9\u8f93\u51fa\u56fd\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7279\u6b8a\u56fd\u60c5\uff0c\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u5c11\u91cf\u900f\u652f\uff0c\u4f46\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f83\u8f7b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5927\u591a\u6570\u975e\u9644\u4ef6\u4e00\u56fd\u5bb6\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6709\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u76c8\u4f59\uff0c\u5982\u5370\u5ea6\u5386\u53f2\u5b9e\u9645\u6392\u653e\u4ec5\u5360\u5386\u53f2\u78b3\u9884\u7b9710\uff05\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u7ea6\u536028\uff05\u3002\u5c11\u6570\u9644\u4ef6\u4e00\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5982\u571f\u8033\u5176\u3001\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u4e5f\u6709\u5c11\u91cf\u5386\u53f2\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u76c8\u4f59\u3002<\/p>\n

\u603b\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u900f\u652f\u603b\u989d\u5927\u7ea6\u4e3a5098.2\u4ebf\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u603b\u76c8\u4f59\u5927\u7ea6\u4e3a9869.5\u4ebf\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5931\u8861\u7684\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u5206\u914d\u4e0e\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u8861\u673a\u5236\u3002\u8be5\u5e73\u8861\u673a\u5236\u5305\u62ec\u4e09\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u81ea\u6211\u8de8\u671f\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002\u51fa\u73b0\u5386\u53f2\u900f\u652f\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u5176\u672a\u6765\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u5f25\u8865\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u900f\u652f\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5982\u610f\u5927\u5229\u3001\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u5386\u53f2\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u5e73\u8861\uff1b<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u900f\u652f\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u6211\u8de8\u671f\u8f6c\u79fb\u5c1a\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u5386\u53f2\u900f\u652f\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7531\u975e\u9644\u4ef6\u4e00\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u76c8\u4f59\u63d0\u4f9b\u56fd\u9645\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u91cf\u5927\u7ea6\u4e3a3890.7\u4ebf\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\uff1b<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u3002\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e8e\u6ee1\u8db3\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u6ee1\u8db3\u672a\u6765\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7531\u975e\u9644\u4ef6\u4e00\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u76c8\u4f59\u63d0\u4f9b\u56fd\u9645\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u91cf\u5927\u7ea6\u4e3a1207.5\u4ebf\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e09\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u90fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u6392\u653e\u4e0e\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u4e5f\u62e5\u6709\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u672a\u6765\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u3002\u9644\u4ef6\u4e00\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u975e\u9644\u4ef6\u4e00\u56fd\u5bb6\u6574\u4f53\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u5206\u914d\u72b6\u51b5\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u603b\u91cf\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ece\u521d\u59cb\u5206\u914d\u768419.5\uff1a80.5\u53d8\u4e3a\u5e73\u8861\u540e\u768440.9\uff1a59.1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u83b7\u5f97\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u5e74\u4eba\u5747\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u5df2\u8fdc\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e2.33\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a7.63\u5428\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u4e3a6.74\u5428\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e3a6.59\u5428\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927 \u4e3a5.43\u5428\uff0c\u800c\u63d0\u4f9b\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u6574\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u4ec5\u4e3a1.61\u5428\u3002\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u9ad8\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e25\u91cd\u5360\u7528\u4e86\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6392\u653e\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d44\u91d1\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u56fd\u9645\u6c14\u5019\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8bae\u9898\u3002\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u6bcf\u5e74\u62ff\u51faGDP\u603b\u989d\u76840.5-1%\u7528\u4e8e\u652f\u6301\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u83b7\u5f97\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u56de\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n

\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u65b9\u6848\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4ee5\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u56fd\u9645\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u603b\u91cf\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5bf9\u5176\u5206\u6bb5\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7b79\u96c6\u516c\u5171\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6e20\u9053\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u6709\u4e2a\u9010\u6b65\u6df1\u5316\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u6309\u7167\u4e09\u4e2a\u5386\u53f2\u65f6\u6bb5\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n

1900~1989\u5e74\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5c1a\u672a\u6210\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u5386\u53f2\u6392\u653e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u77e5\u8005\u4e0d\u4e3a\u7f6a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u65e2\u5f80\u4e0d\u548e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f4e\u4ef7\u3001\u81ea\u613f\u4e3a\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6309$5\uff0f\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u603b\u4ef7\u503c\u5927\u7ea6\u4e3a15721\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

1990~2004\u5e74\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u6709\u660e\u786e\u56fd\u9645\u6cd5\u5f8b\u8ba4\u5b9a\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u6709\u5bb3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ee5\u76f8\u5bf9\u9ad8\u4ef7\u3001\u5f3a\u5236\u4e3a\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6309\u5f53\u524dCER<\/a>\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c$10\/\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u603b\u4ef7\u503c\u5927\u7ea6\u4e3a10705\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

2005~2050\u5e74\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u8f6c\u79fb\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u969c\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f4e\u4ef7\u3001\u5f3a\u5236\u4e3a\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u63095\u7f8e\u5143\uff0f\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u603b\u4ef7\u503c\u5927\u7ea6\u4e3a6071.60\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0a\u8ff0\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u8d44\u91d1\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u7b79\u96c6\u8d44\u91d1\u7ea641498\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u673a\u5236\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u8c08\u5224\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5206\u6563\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u5236\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u7b79\u96c6\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u5206\u914d\u548c\u4f7f\u7528\u4e5f\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u8c08\u5224\u505a\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u5b89\u6392\u3002<\/p>\n

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\n\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u5916\u5bf9\u8bdd\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u6b63\u5728\u54e5\u672c\u54c8\u6839\u8ffd\u8e2a\u62a5\u9053\u6c14\u5019\u8c08\u5224\u5927\u4f1a\uff0c\u8bf7\u8bbf\u95ee\u6211\u4eec\u7279\u6709\u7684\u53cc\u8bed\u535a\u5ba2“<\/strong>\u6bcf\u65e5\u661f\u7403<\/strong><\/a>”\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\u6f58\u5bb6\u534e\u6559\u6388\u73b0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4e3a\u73af\u5883\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

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