{"id":41057,"date":"2011-11-28T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-28T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T23:01:43","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T23:01:43","slug":"41057","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/41057\/","title":{"rendered":"\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u201c\u6c14\u5019\u95e8\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e00\u8f86\u6551\u62a4\u8f66\u5728\u4f60\u7684\u8f66\u540e\u505c\u4e0b\u3002\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u8f86\u6551\u62a4\u8f66\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u80fd\u4ece\u540e\u89c6\u955c\u4e2d\u770b\u5230&ldquo;\u6551\u62a4\u8f66&rdquo;\u51e0\u4e2a\u5b57\u3002\u4f46\u4f60\u76f4\u63a5\u770b\u90a3\u8f86\u8f66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6beb\u65e0\u969c\u788d\u5730\u8bfb\u51fa\u90a3\u51e0\u4e2a\u5b57\uff1b\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u7684\u89c6\u89c9\u7cfb\u7edf\u80fd\u5feb\u901f\u5730\u5206\u8fa8\u51fa\u5b57\u6bcd\u987a\u5e8f\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u8f6c\u6216\u8005\u5de6\u53f3\u98a0\u5012\u7684\u8bcd\u8bed\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8bfb\u51fa\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u8f6c\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u6bd4\u90e8\u5206\u4e71\u5e8f\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u4eba\u4e00\u773c\u5c31\u80fd\u62c6\u7a7f\u5f7b\u5934\u5f7b\u5c3e\u7684\u8c0e\u8a00\uff0c\u5374\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u8f7b\u6613\u770b\u7834\u534a\u771f\u534a\u5047\u7684\u6b6a\u66f2\u3002\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u51b7\u9177\u65e0\u60c5\u7684\u86ca\u60d1\u5bb6\u6b63\u662f\u5229\u7528\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u4f01\u56fe\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0a\u4e0b\u4e0d\u5206\u3001\u5de6\u53f3\u4e0d\u8fa8\u3001\u9ed1\u767d\u98a0\u5012\u7684\u8352\u5510\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u9634\u9669\u653b\u51fb\u4e0a\u4f53\u73b0\u5f97\u6700\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f97&ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadialogue.net\/article\/show\/single\/ch\/3737-After-climategate-forward-to-reality\">\u6c14\u5019\u95e8<\/a>&rdquo;\u5417\uff1f2009\u5e74\u54e5\u672c\u54c8\u6839\u6c14\u5019\u5927\u4f1a\u53ec\u5f00\u524d\u5915\uff0c\u591a\u540d\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u7bb1\u906d\u9ed1\u5ba2\u975e\u6cd5\u5165\u4fb5\uff0c\u79c1\u4eba\u90ae\u4ef6\u88ab\u516c\u4e4b\u4e8e\u4f17\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u8bc4\u8bba\u5bb6\u5c06\u6b64\u4e8b<a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/jamesdelingpole\/100017393\/climategate-the-final-nail-in-the-coffin-of-anthropogenic-global-warming\/\">\u79f0\u4e3a<\/a>\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u8bba\u7684&ldquo;\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u51fb&rdquo;\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bba\u65ad\u6b64\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u4e0d\u4e0b\u767e\u6b21\u4e86\u3002\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f97\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08IPCC\uff092007\u5e74\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u7684&ldquo;\u9519\u8bef&rdquo;\u5417\uff1f\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f97&ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/environment\/georgemonbiot\/2010\/jul\/02\/ipcc-amazongate-george-monbiot\">\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u95e8<\/a>&rdquo;\u3001&ldquo;<a 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href=\"https:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/environment\/2010\/jul\/07\/findings-muir-russell-review\">\u7531\u6155\u5c14&middot;\u7f57\u7d20\u7235\u58eb\u9886\u8854<\/a>\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u51e0\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6&ldquo;\u4e25\u8c28\u8bda\u5b9e&rdquo;\u65e0\u53ef\u7f6e\u7591\u3002\u7531\u5176\u6240\u5728\u5927\u5b66\u6240\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u4e24\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u4e5f\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86<a href=\"https:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/environment\/2010\/jul\/02\/michael-mann-cleared\">\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14&middot;\u66fc\u6069\u6559\u6388\u7684\u6e05\u767d<\/a>\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u6240\u5f00\u521b\u7684&ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hockey_stick_controversy\">\u66f2\u68cd\u7403\u6746\u66f2\u7ebf<\/a>&rdquo;\u5982\u4eca\u4e5f\u5df2\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\uff08\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\uff09\u653f\u5e9c\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a&ldquo;\u975e\u6cd5\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u90ae\u4ef6\u4e2d\u6240\u5305\u542b\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u4f9b\u4efb\u4f55\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a8\u7ffb\u4eba\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8bc1\u636e&rdquo;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u65e0\u7f6a\u5ba3\u5224\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e24\u4e2a\uff0c\u800c\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/thinkprogress.org\/romm\/2011\/11\/22\/374559\/fool-me-once-shame-on-you-fool-me-twice-shame-on-the-media-more-stolen-emails-global-warming\/\">\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u4e5d\u4e2a<\/a>\u3002\u54ea\u6015\u4f60\u5bf9\u79c1\u4e0b\u804a\u5929\u4e0e\u516c\u5f00\u884c\u52a8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u5dee\u522b\u53ea\u662f\u7565\u6709\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b0\u9c9c\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u8fd8\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a&ldquo;&times;&times;\u95e8&rdquo;\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1f\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u5427\uff0c\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u300a\u661f\u671f\u65e5\u6cf0\u6664\u58eb\u62a5\u300b\u516c\u5f00\u9053\u6b49\u5e76<a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/international\/en\/news\/Blogs\/climate\/sunday-times-retracts-critique-of-climate-sci\/blog\/12532\/\">\u6536\u56de\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e&ldquo;\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u95e8&rdquo;\u7684\u62a5\u9053<\/a>\u3002\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48&ldquo;\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u95e8&rdquo;\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u5b9e\u5b9e\u5728\u5728\u53d7\u5230\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u96e8\u6797\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbl.nl\/en\/dossiers\/Climatechange\/content\/correction-wording-flood-risks\">\u8377\u5170\u653f\u5e9c\u627f\u8ba4<\/a>\u5176\u5411\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6709\u8bef\u3002\u8377\u5170\u653f\u5e9c\u672c\u6765\u5ba3\u79f0\u5176\u9886\u571f\u768455%\u90fd\u5df2\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8377\u5170\u53ea\u670926%\u7684\u571f\u5730\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0b\u6709\u88ab\u6d77\u6c34\u6df9\u6ca1\u7684\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u5916\u768429%\u5219\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u6cb3\u6c34\u6df9\u6ca1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728&ldquo;\u6c14\u5019\u95e8&rdquo;\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7206\u53d1\u7ea6\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u66fe\u5bf9\u8fd9\u573a\u5b50\u865a\u4e4c\u6709\u7684&ldquo;\u6c14\u5019\u95e8&rdquo;\u4e11\u95fb\u4f5c\u51fa\u8bef\u5bfc\u6027\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u5e7f\u64ad\u516c\u53f8\u7ec8\u4e8e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.uea.ac.uk\/mac\/comm\/media\/press\/CRUstatements\/rebuttalsandcorrections\/johnhumphrys\">\u5411\u4e1c\u5b89\u683c\u5229\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6b63\u5f0f\u9053\u6b49<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c&ldquo;&times;&times;\u95e8\u4e8b\u4ef6&rdquo;\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u6700\u540e\u53ea\u5269\u9762\u7ea2\u8033\u8d64\u7684\u9053\u6b49\uff0c\u800c\u552f\u4e00\u72af\u9519\u7684\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff1a<a 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href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Joseph_N._Welch\">\u95ee\u5012\u4e86\u4e54&middot;\u9ea6\u5361\u9521<\/a>\uff0c\u4e00\u65f6\u4f20\u4e3a\u4f73\u8bdd\uff1a&ldquo;\u4f60\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7f9e\u803b\u4e48\uff1f&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u592a\u591a\u6c14\u5019\u53f2\u4e0a\u4ece\u672a\u6709\u8fc7\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.edu.au\/from-kenya-to-texas-recent-climate-extremes-around-the-world-2824\">\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/a>\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.edu.au\/from-fear-to-famine-the-politics-of-hunger-in-the-horn-of-africa-2662\">\u4e1c\u90e8\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u5e72\u65f1<\/a>\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/today\/2011\/08\/17\/texas-agricultural-drought-losses-reach-record-5-2-billion\/\">\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65af\u5dde\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5e72\u65f1<\/a>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca<a 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href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.edu.au\/\"><em>\u5bf9\u8bdd<\/em><\/a><em>\u300b\uff08The Conversation\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><\/em>\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.yupoo.com\/photos\/744219gxl\/80917102\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">744219gxl<\/a><em><br type=\"_moz\" \/><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u53c8\u4e00\u6279\u82f1\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u7bb1\u88ab\u9ed1\uff0c\u53c8\u4e00\u6279\u79c1\u4eba\u901a\u4fe1\u88ab\u516c\u4e4b\u4e8e\u4f17\uff0c\u8fd9\u660e\u663e\u662f\u8981\u7834\u574f\u5373\u5c06\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5927\u4f1a\u3002\u4f46\u65af\u8482\u82ac&middot;\u83b1\u4e07\u591a\u592b\u65af\u57fa\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6ca1\u5b8c\u6ca1\u4e86\u5730\u653b\u51fb\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4e11\u95fb\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":892,"featured_media":55262,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[776],"tags":[],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-41057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-776"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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