{"id":42811,"date":"2015-07-27T09:38:00","date_gmt":"2015-07-27T09:38:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T23:11:36","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T23:11:36","slug":"42811","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/7\/42811\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6c34\u7535\u4ee3\u66ff\u7164\u7535\u7684\u6c89\u91cd\u4ee3\u4ef7"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c14\u5019\u884c\u52a8\u8ba1\u5212\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6b22\u8fce\uff1b\u8ba1\u5212\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8981\u843d\u5b9e\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u57282030\u5e74\u524d\u8fbe\u5cf0\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u8981\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5b9e\u73b0\u7531\u7164\u70ad\u6d88\u8d39\u5411\u975e\u5316\u77f3\u80fd\u6e90\u6d88\u8d39\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6cbf\u6d77\u5927\u578b\u57ce\u5e02\u548c\u77ff\u533a\u73af\u5883\u6765\u8bf4\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u5229\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff1b\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4f9d\u8d56\u5316\u77f3\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7a7a\u6c14\u3001\u6c34\u6e90\u548c\u571f\u58e4\u90fd\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u6c61\u67d3\u3002 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href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadialogue.net\/blog\/6682-China-needs-red-lines-to-protect-its-rivers-from-hydropower-craze\/ch\">\u505c\u5efa\u5927\u578b\u6c34\u575d<\/a>\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u7531\u4e8e\u6025\u4e8e\u4fee\u5efa\u5927\u575d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6cb3\u6d41\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u9c7c\u7fa4\u6816\u606f\u5730\u5df2\u7ecf\u906d\u5230\u4e86\u7834\u574f\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u62c5\u5fe7\u5728\u5730\u9707\u591a\u53d1\u5730\u533a\u5174\u5efa\u6c34\u575d\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u9690\u60a3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65b0\u5efa\u5927\u575d\u5c06\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u91d1\u6c99\u6c5f\uff08\u957f\u6c5f\u4e0a\u6e38\uff09\u3002\u8ba1\u5212\u5174\u5efa\u7684\u68af\u7ea7\u5927\u575d\u7684\u53d1\u7535\u80fd\u529b\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e09\u5ce1\u5927\u575d\u603b\u88c5\u673a\uff082250\u4e07\u5343\u74e6\uff09\u7684\u4e94\u500d\uff1b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5927\u575d\u4e0d\u4ec5\u62e6\u622a\u6cb3\u6c34\uff0c\u8fd8\u5c06\u9020\u6210\u6cb3\u9053\u6de4\u79ef\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u957f\u4e09\u89d2\u51fa\u73b0\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6c89\u964d\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e0a\u6d77\u7b49\u5927\u578b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1752-1688.2009.00357.x\/abstract\">\u6d2a\u6d9d\u98ce\u9669<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u578b\u68af\u7ea7\u5927\u575d\u90fd\u5c06\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u6f9c\u6ca7\u6c5f\uff08\u6e44\u516c\u6cb3\uff09\u548c\u96c5\u9c81\u85cf\u5e03\u6c5f\u7b49\u7855\u679c\u4ec5\u5b58\u7684\u65e0\u5927\u575d\u56fd\u9645\u6cb3\u6d41\uff1b\u65b0\u7684\u6c34\u575d\u4e00\u65e6\u5efa\u6210\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u622a\u65ad\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6cb3\u6d41\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u5370\u5ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8d28\u7591<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8bb8\u591a\u4e13\u5bb6\u90fd\u5bf9\u589e\u52a0\u6c34\u7535\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u964d\u4f4e\u7164\u70ad\u6d88\u8017\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u56db\u5ddd\u5730\u8d28\u77ff\u52a1\u5c40\u7684\u5730\u8d28\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u9996\u5e2d\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u6a0a\u8096\uff08\u97f3\u8bd1\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c&ldquo;\u6c34\u7535\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d6\u4ee3\u7164\u7535&rdquo;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53d1\u5c55&ldquo;\u7eff\u8272&rdquo;\u6c34\u7535\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u897f\u5357\u5730\u533a\u7164\u7535\u7ad9\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\uff0c\u6a0a\u8096\u8bf4\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;\u7531\u4e8e\u6cb3\u6d41\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6c34\u529b\u53d1\u7535\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7164\u7535\u7ad9\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u9ad8\u5cf0\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u7535\u80fd\u8d1f\u8377\u95ee\u9898\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/chinawaterrisk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/Towards-A-Water-Energy-Secure-China-CWR0415.pdf\">\u5b9e\u4f8b<\/a>\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u897f\u5357\u90e8\u5730\u533a\u6bcf\u65b0\u5efa\u4e00\u5ea7\u6c34\u7535\u7ad9\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u5ea7\u7164\u7535\u7ad9\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5e94\u6025\u53d1\u7535\u4f7f\u7528\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4fdd\u969c\u65f1\u5b63\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u8d35\u5dde\u65b0\u5efa\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadialogue.net\/blog\/6682-China-needs-red-lines-to-protect-its-rivers-from-hydropower-craze\/ch\">\u706b\u529b\u53d1\u7535\u80fd\u529b<\/a>\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u6c34\u7535\uff1b\u56db\u5ddd\u3001\u5e7f\u897f\u3001\u4e91\u5357\u7b49\u7701\u4e5f\u662f\u540c\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6d6a\u8d39\u4e25\u91cd\u3001\u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u4e0b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6c34\u529b\u53d1\u7535\u88c5\u673a\u5bb9\u91cf\u5341\u5206\u60ca\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u5374\u76f8\u5f53\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6c34\u529b\u5927\u575d\u7684\u53d1\u7535\u6548\u7387\u8fc7\u4f4e&mdash;&mdash;\u5176\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u7528\u7387\u53ea\u670931%\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u3002\uff08\u5229\u7528\u7387\u662f\u6307\u5b9e\u9645\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u4e0e\u88c5\u673a\u5bb9\u91cf\u4e4b\u6bd4\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b0\u5efa\u6c34\u7535\u7ad9\u90fd\u5206\u5e03\u4e8e\u897f\u5357\u90e8\u504f\u8fdc\u7684\u5c71\u533a\uff0c\u7535\u529b\u9700\u8981\u7ecf\u5386\u957f\u9014\u8dcb\u6d89\u624d\u80fd\u5230\u8fbe\u4e2d\u56fd\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u7ebf\u635f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8def\u900f\u793e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2015\/06\/07\/china-renewables-hydropower-idUSL3N0YB3UB20150607?utm_content=buffer9f983&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer\">\u6700\u8fd1\u62a5\u9053\u79f0<\/a>\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u89c4\u5212\u4e0d\u5468\u3001\u7535\u7f51\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u843d\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d6a\u8d39\u7684\u7535\u80fd\u8db3\u4ee5\u4e3a\u82f1\u5fb7\u4e24\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u7535\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u968f\u7740\u504f\u8fdc\u5730\u533a\u6c34\u7535\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5404\u7701\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c3d\u91cf\u6d88\u5316\u8fd9\u4e9b\u989d\u5916\u7684\u7535\u80fd\u800c\u5927\u529b\u53d1\u5c55\u5de5\u4e1a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u8017\u7535\u3001\u9ad8\u6c61\u67d3\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u75af\u957f\uff0c\u90bb\u8fd1\u4e2d\u56fd\u65c5\u6e38\u80dc\u5730\u4e91\u5357<a href=\"https:\/\/www.izvoznookno.si\/Dokumenti\/yunnan_ACProvinceReport.pdf\">\u7684\u4e3d\u6c5f\u70bc\u94dd\u5382<\/a>\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u6cb3\u6d41\u6d41\u91cf\u5c06\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6c34\u529b\u53d1\u7535\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u4e5f\u5c06\u9010\u6e10\u964d\u4f4e\u30022011\u5e74\uff0c\u4e91\u5357\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u5e72\u65f1\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wilsoncenter.org\/article\/ces-12-preview-sustainable-coffee-growing-yunnan\">\u6c34\u529b\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d<\/a>\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u90e8\u76841000\u591a\u5ea7\u6c34\u575d\u4e5f\u88ab\u8feb\u505c\u6b62\u8fd0\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2050\u5e74\u6c34\u7535\u53d1\u5c55\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4e13\u5bb6\u8fbe\u6797&middot;\u9ea6\u57fa\uff08Darrin Magee\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8d22\u653f\u3001\u73af\u5883\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4f4e\u78b3\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6c34\u7535\u4f9d\u7136\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8fbe\u6797&middot;\u9ea6\u57fa\u5df2\u4e0e\u843d\u57fa\u5c71\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u3001\u52b3\u4f26\u65af\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u667a\u5e93&ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eri.org.cn\/\">\u80fd\u6e90\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/a>&rdquo;\u5c55\u5f00\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u63a2\u7d22\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74<a href=\"https:\/\/www.efchina.org\/Attachments\/Report\/report-20150420\/China-2050-High-Renewable-Energy-Penetration-Scenario-and-Roadmap-Study-Executive-Summary.pdf\">4\u6708\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u300a2050\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u300b<\/a>\u5177\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u636e\u8be5\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c 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href=\"https:\/\/online.barrons.com\/articles\/SB51367578116875004693704580494804054218376\">\u5728\u5efa\u7684\u4e09\u6761\u8d85\u9ad8\u538b\u76f4\u6d41\u7535<\/a>\u8def\u5c06\u4ee5\u66f4\u52a0\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u8282\u80fd\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f20\u8f93\u7535\u80fd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u5efa\u7684\u8f93\u7535\u7ebf\u8def\u8fd8\u80fd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6c34\u7535\u4e0e\u5929\u9633\u80fd\u3001\u98ce\u80fd\u7684\u878d\u5408\u3002\u4f4d\u4e8e\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u592a\u9633\u80fd-\u6c34\u80fd\u6df7\u5408\u53d1\u7535\u7ad9&mdash;&mdash;<a 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href=\"https:\/\/www.smartgrid.gov\/files\/China_Rise_Smart_Grid_201103.pdf\">\u57282020\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u5168\u9762\u5efa\u6210\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u667a\u80fd\u7535\u7f51<\/a>\uff1b\u5982\u6b64\u4e00\u6765\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u7528\u6237\u548c\u5de5\u5382\u5c06\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u77e5\u5b9e\u65f6\u7535\u4ef7\uff0c\u7528\u7535\u6548\u7387\u5c06\u6709\u6240\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8981\u60f3\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u4e00\u4e9b\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u963b\u788d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u884c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0a\u7f51\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u6761\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u5927\u575d\u5206\u914d\u7535\u529b\u7684\u5b89\u6392\u505a\u51fa\u76f8\u5173\u89c4\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6311\u6218\u662f\u5728\u7535\u80fd\u5206\u914d\u548c\u64cd\u4f5c\u89c4\u5b9a\u65b9\u9762\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u7a7a\u767d&rdquo;\uff0c\u9ea6\u57fa\u6307\u51fa\u3002&ldquo;\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u575d\u5e93\u53ea\u80fd\u91c7\u53d6\u5feb\u901f\u653e\u6c34\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5e94\u5bf9\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u8d1f\u8377\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c34\u5e93\u5468\u56f4\u51fa\u73b0\u5c71\u4f53\u6ed1\u5761\u548c\u6c34\u571f\u6d41\u5931\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0b\u6e38\u4e5f\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4e0d\u5229\u5f71\u54cd&rdquo;\uff0c\u9ea6\u57fa\u8865\u5145\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7535\u7f51\u7cfb\u7edf\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u91cd\u5927\u6574\u6539\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u975e\u5e38\u8270\u5de8\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u5c31\u8bd5\u56fe\u6253\u7834\u7535\u529b\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5784\u65ad\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5c06\u7535\u7f51\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4e0e\u7535\u529b\u9500\u552e\u5206\u79bb\uff0c\u5e76\u8feb\u4f7f\u7535\u7f51\u516c\u53f8\u4f18\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7164\u70ad\u548c\u5b83\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76ee\u6807\u81f3\u4eca\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9ad8\u6548\u4f4e\u8017<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u9f13\u52b1\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u3001\u5de5\u5382\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u8282\u7ea6\u7528\u7535\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u4fee\u5efa\u65b0\u7684\u5927\u575d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u636e&ldquo;\u80fd\u6e90\u7814\u7a76\u6240&rdquo; 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