{"id":42921,"date":"2015-11-20T14:55:00","date_gmt":"2015-11-20T14:55:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T23:12:12","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T23:12:12","slug":"42921","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/4\/42921\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u56fd\uff1a\u544a\u522b\u8910\u7164\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u6301\u4e45\u6218"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5fb7\u56fd&ldquo;\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b&rdquo;\u5df2\u9677\u5165\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u4e24\u96be\u5883\u5730\uff1a\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5fb7\u56fd\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u53d1\u7535\u6bd4\u4f8b\u9ad8\u8fbe\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u9ad8\u5c45\u4e3b\u8981\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u9996\uff0c\u4f46\u8910\u7164\u7684\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u540d\u5217\u524d\u8305\u3002\u800c\u8910\u7164\u5219\u662f\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5fb7\u56fd\uff0c\u71c3\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u6e05\u6d01\u71c3\u6599\u6324\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u6765\u53cd\u800c\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadialogue.net\/article\/show\/single\/ch\/7085-Germany-s-renewables-paradox-a-warning-sign-for-China\">\u7a33\u5750\u6c5f\u5c71<\/a>\u3002\u65e0\u70df\u7164\u548c\u8910\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u5360\u5fb7\u56fd\u7535\u529b\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u91cf\u768440%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8910\u7164\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u76f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u572825%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u8910\u7164\u5728\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e00\u6b21\u80fd\u6e90\u6d88\u8d39\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u6240\u5360\u6bd4\u91cd\u8fbe\u523012%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\u7684\u5fb7\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u591a\u5bb6\u7535\u529b\u4f01\u4e1a\u8fbe\u6210\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u5c06\u57282020\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u9010\u6b65\u6dd8\u6c70\u516b\u4e2a\u6c61\u67d3\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u8910\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5176\u671d\u7740\u57282050\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u5f7b\u5e95\u6dd8\u6c70\u71c3\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u76ee\u6807\u8fc8\u51fa\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u67cf\u6797\u72ec\u7acb\u667a\u5e93\u673a\u6784<a href=\"https:\/\/www.agora-energiewende.de\/en\/\">Agora<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.agora-energiewende.de\/en\/\"> Energiewende<\/a>\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u5e15\u7279\u91cc\u514b&middot;\u514b\u62c9\u741b\uff08Patrick Graichen\uff09\u8bf4\uff1a&ldquo;\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5fb7\u56fd\u4eba\u90fd\u660e\u767d\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u7535\u529b\u90e8\u95e8&ldquo;\u53bb\u78b3\u5316&rdquo;\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>2012-2013\u5e74\u5fb7\u56fd\u71c3\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u66fe\u4e00\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u6837\u7684&ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/brussels\/2014\/09\/03\/coal-renaissance-risks-tarnishing-the-eus-green-energy-credentials\/\">\u590d\u5174\u4e4b\u8c61<\/a>&rdquo;\u662f\u77ed\u6682\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u96be\u6253\u7834\u5fb7\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e8e\u71c3\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5fb7\u56fd\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8910\u7164\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\uff0c400\u4ebf\u5428\u7684\u8910\u7164\u50a8\u91cf\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u4e5f\u582a\u79f0\u9996\u5c48\u4e00\u6307\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u8910\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u5382\u6bcf\u5e74\u91ca\u653e1.7\u4ebf\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u5360\u5168\u56fd\u6240\u6709\u53d1\u7535\u5382\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8910\u7164\u867d\u7136\u5f00\u91c7\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u542b\u6c34\u7387\u9ad8\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e0d\u9002\u4e8e\u8fd0\u8f93\u6216\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u80fd\u5c31\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u7f8e\u56fd\u9875\u5ca9\u6cb9\u7684\u84ec\u52c3\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u7164\u70ad\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4f7f\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u786c\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u5382\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4e3a\u666f\u6c14\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5fb7\u56fd\u73af\u4fdd\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c2011\u5e74\u65e5\u672c\u798f\u5c9b\u6838\u6cc4\u6f0f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u540e\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u5f03\u7528\u6838\u80fd\uff0c\u4f46\u71c3\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u7684\u590d\u82cf\u66f4\u591a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u80fd\u6e90\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0a\u7684\u5931\u8bef\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65b0\u7684\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u770b\u4f3c\u5728\u798f\u5c9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u540e\u624d\u5f00\u59cb\u5e76\u7f51\u53d1\u7535\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\u65e9\u5728\u6838\u6cc4\u6f0f\u4e8b\u6545\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u7eb3\u5165\u89c4\u5212\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5fb7\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u5bf9&ldquo;\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b&rdquo;\u521d\u671f\u6240\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u611f\u5230\u540e\u6094\u3002\u65af\u56fe\u52a0\u7279\u72ec\u7acb\u80fd\u6e90\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u963f\u6069&middot;\u4e91\u7ea6\u6c49\u7eb3\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/arnejungjohann.de\/en\/\">Arne <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/arnejungjohann.de\/en\/\">Jungjohann<\/a>\uff09\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4ea4\u6613\u4f53\u7cfb(EU ETS)\u867d\u7136\u5927\u529b\u9f13\u52b1\u7535\u529b\u516c\u53f8\u63d0\u9ad8\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u6dd8\u6c70\u65e7\u5f0f\u53d1\u7535\u5382\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u8f6c\u53d8\u71c3\u6599\u6765\u6e90\u3002&ldquo;\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5f0a\u7aef\u5df2\u7ecf\u51f8\u663e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e91\u7ea6\u6c49\u7eb3\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u5bfc\u81f42012\u5e74&ldquo;\u71c3\u7164\u590d\u82cf&rdquo;\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u798f\u5c9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u540e\u7684\u5e9f\u6838\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u4e0e<a href=\"https:\/\/energytransition.de\/author\/craig\/\">\u514b\u96f7\u683c&middot;\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\uff08Craig <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/energytransition.de\/author\/craig\/\">Morris\uff09<\/a>\u5408\u5199\u7684\u62a5\u9053\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/us.boell.org\/2014\/06\/06\/german-coal-conundrum\">\u5fb7\u56fd\u71c3\u7164\u4e4b\u56f0\u300b\uff08The<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/us.boell.org\/2014\/06\/06\/german-coal-conundrum\"> German Coal Conundrum\uff09<\/a>\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u4e3a\u4f9b\u5927\u4e8e\u6c42\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e34\u56fd\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u51fa\u53e3\u91cf\u4e5f\u5728\u5237\u65b0\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c&ldquo;\u5e9f\u6838&rdquo;\u51b3\u5b9a\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7a7a\u767d\u88ab\u8910\u7164\u6240\u66ff\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e91\u7ea6\u6c49\u7eb3\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u672c\u6765\u5e94\u8be5\u9f13\u52b1\u71c3\u6c14\u7535\u5382\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8ba9\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\u6709\u673a\u53ef\u4e58\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u71c3\u7164\u53d1\u7535\uff0c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u53d1\u7535\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u5c11\uff0c\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u53d7\u5929\u6c14\u5f71\u54cd\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u63d0\u4f9b\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u662f\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u5907\u7528\u71c3\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2005\u5e74\u6b27\u76df\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4ea4\u6613\u4f53\u7cfb\u51fa\u53f0\u4e4b\u521d\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u4eec\u90fd\u4ee5\u4e3a\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u80fd\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u71c3\u6c14\u53d1\u7535\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u7ed3\u679c\u5374\u8bc1\u660e\u4ed6\u4eec\u592a\u4e50\u89c2\u4e86\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2013\/jan\/24\/eu-carbon-price-crash-record-low\">\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u5374\u964d\u81f3\u5386\u53f2\u4f4e\u4f4d<\/a>\u3002\u514b\u62c9\u741b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a&ldquo;\u4eba\u4eec\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u6599\u5230\uff0c\u71c3\u6c14\u53d1\u7535\u5c45\u7136\u88ab\u6324\u51fa\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4f46\u71c3\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u5374\u4f9d\u65e7\u575a\u633a\u3002&rdquo;2010-2014\u5e74\uff0c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u5728\u5fb7\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u4ece14%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e0b\u964d\u5230\u4e0d\u8db310%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u4fee\u6b63\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u4f4d\u4e8e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.diw.de\/de\/diw_01.c.100376.de\/ueber_uns\/menschen_am_diw_berlin\/mitarbeiter\/innen\/mitarbeiter\/innen.html?id=diw_01.c.10839.de&amp;sprache=en\">\u67cf\u6797\u7684\u5fb7\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08German Institute for Economic Research\uff09\u80fd\u6e90\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u514b\u52b3\u8fea\u5a05&middot;\u51ef\u83f2\u5c14\u7279\uff08Claudia Kemfert<\/a>\uff09\u4f30\u8ba1\uff1a&ldquo;\u82e5\u5e0c\u671b\u71c3\u6c14\u53d1\u7535\u80fd\u591f\u53d6\u4ee3\u71c3\u7164\u53d1\u7535\uff0c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u81f3\u5c11\u9700\u8981\u8fbe\u5230\u6bcf\u542840\u6b27\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4ec5\u4e3a\u6bcf\u54287\u6b27\u5143\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6b27\u76df\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4ea4\u6613\u4f53\u7cfb\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6b65\u7f29\u51cf\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u8d85\u53d1\u7684\u6392\u653e\u8bb8\u53ef\uff0c\u4f46\u51ef\u83f2\u5c14\u7279\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e45\u5ea6\u8fdc\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u71c3\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5305\u62ec\u5979\u5728\u5185\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4ea7\u80fd\u8fc7\u5269\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u770b\u5c06\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u6574\u4e2a\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u90e8\u95e8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9762\u5bf9\u76ee\u524d\u8fd9\u79cd&ldquo;\u7164&rdquo;\u559c&ldquo;\u6c14&rdquo;\u5fe7\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u8fd1\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u65e0\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u62c5\u5fc3\u96be\u4ee5\u57282015\u5e74\u5df4\u9ece\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5927\u4f1a\u524d\u626d\u8f6c\u5176\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u51b3\u5fc3\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.powerengineeringint.com\/articles\/2015\/07\/2-7-gw-of-german-coal-fired-power-plants-to-be-shut-down.html\">\u653f\u5e9c\u51b3\u5b9a<\/a>\u57282016\u5e74\u52302019\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u5173\u95ed270\u4e07\u5343\u74e6\u7684\u8910\u7164\u53d1\u7535\u5382\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u603b\u88c5\u673a\u5bb9\u91cf\u768413%\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u52302020\u5e74\u57281990\u5e74\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u51cf\u639240%\u3002\u82e5\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5c31\u9700\u51cf\u63922200\u4e07\u5428\u3002\u800c\u5fb7\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6240\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u4e3e\u63aa\u5c06\u51cf\u5c111200\u4e07\u5428\u7684\u6392\u653e\u91cf\uff0c\u662f\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e0a\u8ff0\u76ee\u6807\u51cf\u6392\u91cf\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba1\u5212\u6700\u5f00\u59cb\u5e0c\u671b\u901a\u8fc7\u5411\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7535\u5382\u5f81\u7a0e\u4ece\u800c\u5f15\u5bfc\u5176\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u4f46\u8feb\u4e8e\u77ff\u4e1a\u516c\u4f1a\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f53\u5730\u8054\u76df\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6&ldquo;\u66f2\u7ebf\u6551\u56fd&rdquo;\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u8fdb\u884c\u4fee\u8ba2\uff1a\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u9636\u6bb5\uff0cRWE, 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