{"id":43343,"date":"2016-09-15T15:31:00","date_gmt":"2016-09-15T15:31:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T23:14:43","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T23:14:43","slug":"43343","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/43343\/","title":{"rendered":"\u51b0\u5ddd\u878d\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u6c34\u7535\u8ba1\u5212\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd"},"content":{"rendered":"<p dir=\"ltr\"><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\">\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u51b0\u5ddd\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6e10\u9000\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u6eaa\u6d41\u548c\u6cb3\u6d41\u7684\u6c34\u6d41\u72b6\u51b5\u53c8\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462?<\/span><br \/>\n<span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\">\u200b<br \/>\n\u8377\u5170\u667a\u5e93\u673a\u6784\u672a\u6765\u6c34\u6e90\uff08Future Water\uff09\u7684\u4e9a\u745f&middot;\u5362\u8328\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u8981\u5206\u5f88\u591a\u79cd\u3002\u65e5\u524d\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u5468\u6d3b\u52a8\u6b63\u5728\u65af\u5fb7\u54e5\u5c14\u6469\u4e3e\u884c\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u573a\u5173\u4e8e\u51b0\u5ddd\u548c\u6c34\u7535\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u5362\u8328\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51b0\u5ddd\u878d\u6c34\u5bf9\u4e0b\u6e38\u6cb3\u6d41\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u6052\u6cb3\u76c6\u5730\u548c\u96c5\u9c81\u85cf\u5e03\u6c5f\u76c6\u5730\u5730\u533a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u51b0\u5ddd\u878d\u6c34\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u6cb3\u76c6\u5730\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u8981\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8865\u5145\u9053\uff0c\u51b0\u5ddd\u9000\u5316\u5bf9\u96c6\u6c34\u533a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u5404\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/1811\/Climate_Change_Consequence_Water_Arthur_Lutz_1Sep2016.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"By Arthur Lutz from Ragettli et al., 2016. RCP refers to the various climate change scenarios forecast in the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The higher the RCP, the more the warming\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/1811\/Climate_Change_Consequence_Water_Arthur_Lutz_1Sep2016.jpg\" style=\"border: none; width: 560px; height: 318px;\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span class=\"caption\"><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\">\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u4e9a\u745f&middot;\u5362\u8328\uff08Arthur Lutz\uff09\uff0cRagettli\u7b49\u4eba\uff082016\uff09\u3002RCP\u662f\u6307\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u4efd\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u60c5\u5883\u9884\u6d4b\uff0cRCP\u6570\u503c\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\">\u5728<\/span><a href=\"about:blank\">\u56fd\u9645\u7efc\u5408\u5c71\u5730\u5f00\u53d1\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08International<\/a><a href=\"about:blank\"> Centre for Integrated Mountain Development \uff0c\u7b80\u79f0ICIMOD\uff09<\/a>\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u5362\u8328\u73b0\u573a\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e24\u4efd\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u4e00\u4efd\u5173\u4e8e\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4efd\u5173\u4e8e\u667a\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\">\u636e\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5728\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u5883\u5185\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5c71\u8109\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4e0a\u84dd\u5858\u96c6\u6c34\u533a\uff0c\u4e2d\u7b49\u7a0b\u5ea6\u53d8\u6696\u60c5\u5883\uff08RCP\u503c\u4e3a4.5\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u96e8\u6c34\u3001\u51b0\u5ddd\u548c\u878d\u96ea\u5747\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u603b\u4f53\u5f84\u6d41\u5e76\u672a\u8f83\u76ee\u524d\u72b6\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u53d8\u6696\u7a0b\u5ea6\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff08RCP\u503c\u4e3a8.5\uff09\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u8be5\u5730\u533a2050\u5e74\u524d\u5f84\u6d41\u603b\u91cf\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e0d\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u52302100\u5e74\u65f6\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5c71\u6d2a\u66b4\u53d1\u7684\u5371\u9669\u6027\u5927\u5927\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u667a\u5229\u5b89\u7b2c\u65af\u5c71\u8109\u5730\u533a\u6d2a\u5361\u5c14\u96c6\u6c34\u533a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5374\u4e0e\u6b64\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4e2d\u5ea6\u53d8\u6696\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5f84\u6d41\u589e\u52a0\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u9ad8\u5ea6\u53d8\u6696\u8fd8\u8981\u4e25\u91cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/1814\/David-Molden-Director-General-ICIMOD.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"David Molden, Director General, ICIMOD [image by Udayan Mishra \/ ICIMOD]\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/1814\/David-Molden-Director-General-ICIMOD.jpg\" style=\"border: none; width: 560px; height: 373px;\" \/><\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\"><span class=\"caption\">\u200b\u56fd\u9645\u7efc\u5408\u5c71\u5730\u5f00\u53d1\u4e2d\u5fc3\u603b\u5e72\u4e8b \u5927\u536b&middot;\u83ab\u5c14\u767b\u3002\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u5c24\u5fb7\u5f66&middot;\u7c73\u4ec0\u62c9\/\u56fd\u9645\u7efc\u5408\u5c71\u5730\u5f00\u53d1\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u56fd\u9645\u7efc\u5408\u5c71\u5730\u5f00\u53d1\u4e2d\u5fc3\u603b\u5e72\u4e8b\u5927\u536b&middot;\u83ab\u5c14\u767b\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5c3d\u5feb\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u89d2\u5ea6\u5c55\u5f00\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u786e\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u9ad8\u5c71\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u51b0\u5ddd\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0\u9000\u5316\u3002\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u4f8b\u5916\u5c31\u662f\u5174\u90fd\u5e93\u4ec0&middot;\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5580\u5587\u6606\u4ed1\u5c71\u51b0\u5ddd\u3002\u5362\u8328\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u7684&ldquo;\u5580\u5587\u6606\u4ed1\u7279\u4f8b&rdquo;\u81f3\u4eca\u4e5f\u6ca1\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u5f04\u660e\u767d\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5927\u591a\u6570\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u91cc\u6d77\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u964d\u96ea\u548c\u964d\u96e8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u9664\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u4f8b\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u51b0\u5ddd\u5feb\u901f\u878d\u5316\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u53ef\u5426\u8ba4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5c71\u5730\u5730\u533a\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u66f4\u52a0\u654f\u611f&mdash;&mdash;\u5362\u8328\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u5730\u533a\u5347\u6e294\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6d77\u62d45000\u7c73\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u5e45\u5ea6\u5c06\u8fbe\u52305\u52306\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/1817\/Mountain_Warming_Arthur_Lutz_1Sep2016.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"By Arthur Lutz from Pepin et al., 2015\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/1817\/Mountain_Warming_Arthur_Lutz_1Sep2016.jpg\" style=\"border: none; width: 560px; height: 301px;\" \/><\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"caption\"><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\">\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u4e9a\u745f&bull;\u5362\u8328\uff0cPepin\u7b49\u4eba\uff082016\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\">\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u603b\u7ed3\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51b0\u5ddd\u5bf9\u4e0b\u6e38\u6c34\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e3b\u8981\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u878d\u6c34\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u6d41\u51fa\u6c34\u91cf\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3001\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u5dee\u5f02\u3001\u672a\u6765\u964d\u6c34\uff08\u964d\u96e8\u548c\u4e0b\u96ea\uff09\u603b\u91cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5bf9\u6c34\u7535\u5efa\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5730\u533a\u6570\u91cf\u4f17\u591a\u7684\u62df\u5efa\u6c34\u7535\u5de5\u7a0b\u53c8\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48? \u632a\u5a01\u56fd\u5bb6\u7535\u529b\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u9a6c\u4e01&middot;\u6d2a\u65af\u8d1d\u683c\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u65e0\u5b9a\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6d2a\u65af\u8d1d\u683c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5f00\u53d1\u5546\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u5efa\u9020\u6c34\u7535\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u6c34\u6d41\u53d8\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u632a\u5a01\u56fd\u5bb6\u7535\u529b\u516c\u53f8\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u8fdb\u884c\u6c34\u7535\u9879\u76ee\u8fd0\u8425\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u76f8\u5173\u90e8\u95e8\u5141\u8bb8\u5f00\u53d1\u5546\u653e\u5f03\u539f\u6709\u7684\u5f84\u6d41\u5f0f\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u5f00\u53d1\u84c4\u6c34\u6c34\u5e93\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5927\u575d\u540e\u9762\u4fee\u5efa\u6c34\u5e93\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u5728\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5730\u533a\u4e00\u76f4\u9971\u53d7\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ee5\u524d\u4e5f\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u906d\u5230\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56fd\u9645\u7efc\u5408\u5c71\u5730\u5f00\u53d1\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u963f\u5e95\u63d0&middot;\u7a46\u514b\u5409\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u9879\u76ee\u91c7\u7528\u54ea\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u5f00\u53d1\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u5730\u4e0e\u5f53\u5730\u5c45\u6c11\u5171\u4eab\u798f\u5229\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/1820\/Hydro_Potential_HKH_Aditi_Mukherji_1Sep2016.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/1820\/Hydro_Potential_HKH_Aditi_Mukherji_1Sep2016.jpg\" style=\"width: 560px; height: 372px;\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<span><span class=\"caption\">\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1aAditi Mukherji<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u7a46\u514b\u5409\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5174\u90fd\u5e93\u4ec0&middot;\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5730\u533a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u6cb3\u6d41\u7684\u6c34\u7535\u6f5c\u529b\u9ad8\u8fbe5\u4ebf\u5343\u74e6\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5979\u4e5f\u7a81\u51fa\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ece\u5c71\u533a\u8f93\u5411\u5e73\u539f\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7535\u529b\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed9\u5c71\u533a\u5c45\u6c11\u5e26\u6765\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u597d\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5979\u8bf4\uff1a&ldquo;\u8fd9\u4e9b\u597d\u5904\u4e0d\u5e94\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5c40\u9650\u5728\uff08\u5b89\u7f6e\uff09\u8865\u507f\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u51cf\u7f13\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0a\u3002&rdquo; 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id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\">\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u4fdd\u62a4\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7684\u8fea\u5e15\u514b&middot;\u5409\u4e9a\u74e6\u5229\u8bf4\uff1a&ldquo;\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u8bef\u7528\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5f62\u6001\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u5916\u8fc1\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u5df2\u7ecf\u8ba9\u60c5\u51b5\u53d8\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u800c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5219\u4f1a\u8ba9\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u51b5\u518d\u7cdf\u7cd510\u500d\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>\u56fd\u9645\u5c71\u5730\u7efc\u5408\u5f00\u53d1\u4e2d\u5fc3\u9879\u76ee\u603b\u76d1\u827e\u514b\u62c9\u5df4\u4e9a&middot;\u6c99\u739b\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u603b\u7ed3\u4e2d\u91cd\u7533\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u662f\u8981\u5bf9\u5174\u90fd\u5e93\u4ec0&middot;\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5730\u533a\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u8981\u8bbe\u7acb\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u76d1\u6d4b\u7ad9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u82f1\u6587\u539f\u6587\u520a\u8f7d\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5916\u5bf9\u8bdd\u5b50\u7f51\u7ad9<a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2016\/09\/02\/studies-of-melting-glaciers-urgently-needed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7b2c\u4e09\u6781<\/a><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-b6ba7c05-2957-1789-d7ee-10129a63ae10\">\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1aEstelle<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p dir=\"ltr\"><span 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