{"id":43924,"date":"2018-03-26T09:40:00","date_gmt":"2018-03-26T09:40:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2021-11-12T03:44:30","modified_gmt":"2021-11-12T03:44:30","slug":"43924","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/43924\/","title":{"rendered":"1.5\u00b0C\u6e29\u63a7\u76ee\u6807\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\u600e\u4e48\u770b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2015\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u5404\u56fd\u9886\u8896\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u5730\u5728\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u5cf0\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e3a\u201c\u52aa\u529b\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u63a7\u5236\u5728\uff08\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u524d\u7684\uff091.5\u2103\u4ee5\u5185\u201d\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u65e2\u6b22\u6b23\u9f13\u821e\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u7981\u611f\u5230\u4e00\u4e1d\u7591\u60d1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u592a\u591a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u8b66\u544a\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u626d\u8f6c\u751f\u4ea7\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u6709\u6781\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u8d85\u8fc72\u2103\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f97\uff0c\u57282009\u5e74\u7684\u54e5\u672c\u54c8\u6839\u6c14\u5019\u5cf0\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u6e29\u63a72\u2103\u7684\u613f\u666f\u90fd\u5dee\u70b9\u901a\u4e0d\u8fc7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1.5\u2103\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u592a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u597d\u7684\u613f\u671b\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff1f\u5341\u6708\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(IPCC)\u5c06\u53d1\u5e03<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/sr15\/\">\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u63a71.5\u2103\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/a>\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u5cf0\u4f1a\u63d0\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b8f\u613f\u540e\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u4eec\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u76f4\u9762\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4efd<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2018\/02\/13\/leaked-draft-summary-un-special-report-1-5c-climate-goal-full\/\">\u8fd1\u671f\u6cc4\u9732\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u8349\u7a3f<\/a>\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u76ee\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u529b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u96be\u5ea6\u6781\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u8349\u7a3f\u8fd8\u5728\u8bc4\u5ba1\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u52302018\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e4b\u524d\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u65b0\u79d1\u7814\u6210\u679c\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u7eb3\u5165\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e76\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u5176\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002IPCC\u62a5\u544a\u53d1\u8868\u524d\u9700\u8981\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8bc4\u5ba1\uff0c\u8349\u7a3f\u6cc4\u9732\u5e76\u975e\u9996\u6b21\uff0c2012\u5e74\u5c31\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/pdf\/ar5\/statement\/Statement_WGI_AR5_SOD.pdf\">\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6cc4\u9732\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f1.5\u2103\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8bae\u9898\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u957f\u671f\u5904\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u4e89\u7aef\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u906d\u53d7\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5e76\u975e\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u5c0f\u5c9b\u56fd\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u6761\u4ef6\u6076\u52a3\u7684\u6700\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u81ea\u8eab\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5374\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u627f\u53d7\u7740\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u3001\u6d2a\u6d9d\u707e\u5bb3\u3001\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u7b49\u707e\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u5b9e\u5219\u662f\uff0c\u81ea\u4ece\u6e29\u63a72\u2103\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u63d0\u51fa\u540e\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\u51cf\u6392\u884c\u52a8\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u8fbe\u5230\u8fc7\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u6240\u9700\u7684\u529b\u5ea6\u30022017\u5e74\u5c31<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2015\/oct\/10\/climate-2c-global-warming-target-fail\">\u6709\u6c14\u5019\u667a\u5e93\u4f30\u8ba1<\/a>\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u884c\u52a8\u53ea\u591f\u63a7\u5236\u5347\u6e29\u57282.7\u2103\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6e29\u5347\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8db3\u4ee5\u7ed9\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c0f\u5c9b\u56fd\u5e26\u6765\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u5355\u7eaf\u4ece\u6c14\u5019\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u53ea\u6709\u628a\u76ee\u6807\u5b9a\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b02\u2103\u7684\u6e29\u63a7\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u51b2\u51fb1.5\u2103\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4e0d\u662f\u597d\u9ad8\u9a9b\u8fdc\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u6700\u4fdd\u9669\u7684\u6253\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u5927\u4f1a\u7684\u6700\u540e\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5c0f\u5c9b\u56fd\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/cn.nytimes.com\/travel\/20170331\/maldives-tourism-beach-erosion\/\">\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c11\u65cf\u3001\u4e00\u79cd\u8eab\u4efd\u3001\u4e00\u6bb5\u6587\u5316\u53f2\u3001\u4e00\u79cd\u8bed\u8a00\u4e0e\u6587\u5b57<\/a>\u201d\u7684\u6025\u8feb\u8bc9\u6c42\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6b27\u76df\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b49\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002100\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ec4\u6210\u4e86\u677e\u6563\u7684\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2016\/07\/22\/paris-high-ambition-coalition-to-tackle-unfinished-business\/\">\u96c4\u5fc3\u8054\u76df<\/a>\u201d\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u7528\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u6765\u523a\u6fc0\u5404\u56fd\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u6b64\u524d\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u7b49\u65b0\u5174\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5219\u672a\u52a0\u5165\u8fd9\u4e00\u9635\u8425\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c2015\u5e7412\u6708\uff0c\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u4e2d\u5199\u5165\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e48\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u63a7\u5236\u57282\u2103\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u54111.5\u2103\u52aa\u529b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8bb8\u4e0b\u8fd9\u4e00\u613f\u666f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u653f\u5e9c\u6c14\u5019\u653f\u7b56\u667a\u56ca\u56e2\u7684IPCC\u624d\u5f00\u59cb\u7f16\u5199\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u8003\u8651\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7684\u4e16\u754c<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u7167\u76ee\u524d\u6d41\u51fa\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u8349\u7a3f\uff0c\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7684\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u5c06\u6bd4\u5347\u6e292\u2103\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7684\u786e\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u62b5\u5fa1\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u5347\u63a7\u5236\u57281.5\u2103\u4ee5\u5185\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u4ef0\u8d56\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u751f\u4ea7\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8d70\u5bfb\u5e38\u8def\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u2103\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u7167\u62a5\u544a\u8349\u7a3f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u63a8\u8350\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u9769\u547d\u5fc5\u987b\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u52a0\u901f\u548c\u63a8\u5e7f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5728\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u671f\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u96f6\u6392\u653e\u3002\u52302100\u5e74\uff0c\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u91c7\u53d6\u7535\u529b\u5f62\u5f0f\uff1b\u52302050\u5e74\uff0c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u5fc5\u987b\u53d6\u4ee3\u4eca\u5929\u7164\u70ad\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u538b\u5012\u6027\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u80fd\u6e90\u5f62\u5f0f\uff1b\u53c8\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7164\u70ad\u6d88\u8d39\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee5\u6bcf\u5e744%\u52305%\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c31\u7b97\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u5347\u6e29\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u7a81\u78341.5\u2103\u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u989d\u5916\u4ece\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u6d88\u51cf\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6216\u662f\u4eba\u4e3a\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u2103\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u5728\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u5e94\u7528\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u751a\u81f3\u79d1\u5e7b\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadialogue.net\/article\/show\/single\/ch\/3809-Coming-back-down-to-earth\">\u201c\u5730\u7403\u5de5\u7a0b\u201d<\/a>\uff0c\u771f\u7684\u8981\u6392\u4e0a\u7528\u573a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5730\u7403\u5de5\u7a0b\u201d\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4e24\u79cd\u601d\u8def\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u7ba1\u7406(Solar Radiation Management)\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8bf4\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u4e3a\u989d\u5916\u5730\u5c06\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u53cd\u5c04\u56de\u592a\u7a7a\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u8fbe\u5230\u51cf\u7f13\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u53ea\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u6539\u53d8\u5927\u6c14\u5c42\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u592a\u7a7a\u4e2d\u653e\u5165\u53cd\u5c04\u9633\u5149\u7684\u88c5\u7f6e\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u96be\u5ea6\u53ef\u60f3\u800c\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u53bb\u9664(Carbon Dioxide Removal)\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4eba\u4e3a\u624b\u6bb5\u76f4\u63a5\u6d88\u9664\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u89e3\u51b3\u6e29\u5ba4\u6548\u5e94\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u751f\u7269\u8d28\u52a0\u4e0a\u78b3\u6355\u6349\u548c\u50a8\u5b58(Biomass +carbon capture and storage)\u76f8\u5bf9\u800c\u8a00\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u5229\u7528\u690d\u7269\u5149\u5408\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u79cd\u690d\u201c\u80fd\u91cf\u4f5c\u7269\u201d\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u901a\u8fc7\u590d\u6742\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u83b7\u53d6\u6e05\u6d01\u7684\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5c06\u4f5c\u7269\u4e2d\u7684\u78b3\u5143\u7d20\u6ce8\u5165\u5730\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\u600e\u4e48\u770b\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5730\u7403\u6bcf\u65b0\u589e\u56db\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u5c31\u6709\u5927\u7ea6\u4e00\u5428\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u884c\u52a8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u80fd\u5426\u5b9e\u73b0\u76ee\u6807\u4e3e\u8db3\u8f7b\u91cd\u3002\u4e2d\u5916\u5bf9\u8bdd\u8054\u7cfb\u4e86\u51e0\u4f4d\u53c2\u4e0e\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u64b0\u5199\u548c\u8bc4\u5ba1\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u62a5\u544a\u8349\u7a3f\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u4e09\u4f4d\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e0d\u7ea6\u800c\u540c\u5bf9\u5176\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4fdd\u7559\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a 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href=\"https:\/\/www.drc.gov.cn\/\">\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u53d1\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/a>\u53d1\u5c55\u6218\u7565\u548c\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u7814\u7a76\u5ba4\u526f\u4e3b\u4efb\u4f55\u5efa\u6b66\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5904\u4e8e\u589e\u957f\u671f\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u201c\u652f\u4ed8\u4e0d\u8d77\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u4eba\u7fa4\u201d\u4e5f\u662f\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53bb\u5e74\u51ac\u5929\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadialogue.net\/article\/show\/single\/ch\/10322-What-caused-China-s-squeeze-on-natural-gas-\">\u8fc7\u4e8e\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u7164\u6539\u6c14\u3001\u7164\u6539\u7535\u8fd0\u52a8<\/a>\u5c31\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u519c\u6751\u5bb6\u5ead\u96be\u4ee5\u652f\u4ed8\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u6216\u7535\u529b\u4f9b\u6696\u8d39\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u59dc\u514b\u96bd\u8fd8\u662f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c 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href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadialogue.net\/article\/show\/single\/ch\/8810-VIDEO-Hangzhou-takes-to-two-wheels-in-green-transport-revolution\">\u4f4e\u78b3\u57ce\u5e02\uff08\u7701\uff09\u8bd5\u70b9<\/a>\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u6709<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndrc.gov.cn\/zcfb\/zcfbtz\/201701\/t20170124_836394.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener 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