{"id":44004,"date":"2018-07-27T14:23:00","date_gmt":"2018-07-27T14:23:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T23:18:37","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T23:18:37","slug":"44004","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/44004\/","title":{"rendered":"\u590f\u5b63\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u8086\u8650\u5168\u7403"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7834\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u70ed\u6d6a\u548c\u5176\u4ed6<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-44943143\">\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14<\/a>\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u5c06\u88ab\u6211\u4eec\u94ed\u8bb0\u3002\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e9b\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u523b\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u771f\u6b63\u76f8\u4fe1\u6781\u70ed\u5929\u6c14\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4eb2\u773c\u76ee\u7779\u708e\u70ed\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u5730\u9020\u6210\u6570\u4ee5\u5343\u8ba1\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6781\u7aef\u4e4b\u590f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u5f25\u6f2b\u5168\u7403\u7684\u70ed\u6d6a<a href=\"https:\/\/bj.news.163.com\/18\/0606\/08\/DJJREAA804388CSB.html\">\u6253\u7834<\/a>\u4e86\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8639\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u662f50\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c7\u670822\u65e5\u4ee5\u6765\u897f\u5317\u5b81\u590f\u56de\u65cf\u81ea\u6cbb\u533a\u7684\u8d3a\u5170\u5c71\u5730\u533a\u8fde\u964d\u66b4\u96e8\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc75200\u4f4d\u5f53\u5730\u5c45\u6c11\u88ab\u758f\u6563\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u5468\uff0c\u6797\u706b\u5728\u5e0c\u814a\u9020\u621080\u591a\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u4eca\u590f\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u5c06\u690d\u88ab\u90fd\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u6613\u71c3\u7684\u5e72\u67f4\uff0c\u65f6\u901f124\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u72c2\u98ce\u5927\u5927\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u6797\u706b\u7684\u6c14\u7130\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176&ldquo;\u6bcf\u5206\u949f\u90fd\u5728\u6539\u53d8\u7740\u65b9\u5411&rdquo;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u590f\u5b63\u4ee5\u591a\u96e8\u8457\u79f0\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5e74\u9ad8\u6e29\u9020\u6210\u7684\u706b\u707e\u5df2\u7ecf\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6d88\u9632\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u30027\u6708\uff0c\u4e0b\u8bae\u9662\u73af\u5883\u5ba1\u8ba1\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.parliament.uk\/business\/committees\/committees-a-z\/commons-select\/environmental-audit-committee\/news-parliament-2017\/heatwaves-report-publication-17-19\/\">\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4<\/a>\uff1a&ldquo;\u5982\u679c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u52302050\u5e74\u6bcf\u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u5c06\u4f1a\u67097000\u4eba\u6b7b\u4e8e\u708e\u70ed\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5143\u51f6\u5417\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e1c\u5b89\u683c\u5229\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u6559\u6388\u79d1\u6797&middot;\u52d2&middot;\u514b\u52d2\u8bf4\uff1a&ldquo;\u6709\u591a\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c06\u4eba\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u81ea\u7136\u5faa\u73af\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u5f88\u591a\u5730\u65b9\u53d1\u751f\u70ed\u6d6a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u500d\u591a\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u5168\u7403\u5f88\u591a\u5730\u65b9\u53d1\u751f\u70ed\u6d6a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u500d\u591a<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5f3a\u8c03\u672a\u6765\u70ed\u6d6a\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u9891\u7e41\u3001\u66f4\u52a0\u731b\u70c8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u81ea\u524d\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u65f6\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u5df2\u7ecf\u5347\u9ad8\u4e861\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u5de6\u53f3\uff1b\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u70ed\u91cf\u8fdb\u5165\u81ea\u7136\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u70ed\u6d6a\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u6781\u7aef\u3002&rdquo;\u82f1\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6&middot;\u739b\u9f50\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u70ed\u6d6a\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u5168\u602a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9519\u7efc\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6839\u6e90\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5361\u8fea\u592b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u739b\u4e3d&middot;\u57c3\u514b\u65af\u7f57\u59c6\u5c06\u6b27\u6d32\u5929\u6c14\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u4e00\u80a1\u51cf\u5f31\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/learning\/wind\/what-is-the-jet-stream\">\u55b7\u6d41<\/a>\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5b83\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u5730\u8868\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5979\u8bf4\uff1a&ldquo;\u5982\u4eca\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u80a1\u975e\u5e38\u5f31\u7684\u6c14\u6d41\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u6b27\u4e0a\u7a7a\u7684\u9ad8\u538b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9ad8\u538b\u7cfb\u7edf\u963b\u65ad\u4e86\u6765\u81ea\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5929\u6c14\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u63a8\u5411\u5317\u65b9\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8ba9\u5176\u5411\u4e1c\u671d\u7740\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u79fb\u52a8\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>\u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u514b\u83b1\u5c14&middot;\u7eb3\u91cc\u65af\u4e5f\u628a\u77db\u5934\u6307\u5411\u6d0b\u6d41\u7684\u6696\u5316\uff0c&ldquo;\u8fd9\u662f\u6709\u8bb0\u5f55\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u70ed\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/La_Ni%C3%B1a\">\u62c9\u5c3c\u5a1c<\/a>\u5e74&rdquo;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u6781\u70ed\u5929\u6c14\u8981\u6765\uff0c\u4f46\u5404\u56fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u672a\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u4fdd\u7f57&middot;\u9c81\u8fea\u8bf4\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u5f62\u6001\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7b49\u673a\u6784\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6392\u653e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">To conclude. Real time attribution of increasing heat waves to human climate change is solid. This has been predicted, and predictions are playing out. Same with reductions in cold snaps and increasing intensity of precipitation. Everything else (IMO) is a work in progress.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ClimateOfGavin\/status\/1022185377136865281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 25, 2018<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;\u70ed\u6d6a\u6108\u6f14\u6108\u70c8\u4e0e\u4eba\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u786e\u4fe1\u65e0\u7591\u3002\u8fd9\u65e9\u5c31\u88ab\u9884\u6d4b\u5230\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u6b63\u4e00\u4e00\u5151\u73b0\u3002\u5bd2\u6d41\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u548c\u964d\u96e8\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u3002\uff08\u56fd\u9645\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684IMO\uff09\u5176\u4ed6\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e5f\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u4e2d\u3002&rdquo;&mdash;&mdash; \u52a0\u6587&middot;\u65bd\u5bc6\u7279\u7684\u63a8\u7279<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u70ed\u6d6a\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u6548\u5e94<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6781\u70ed\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5176\u4ed6\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5982\u8d85\u7ea7\u98ce\u66b4\u3001\u9f99\u5377\u98ce\u3001\u6d2a\u6c34\u548c\u6797\u706b\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e16\u754c\u8d44\u6e90\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u4fc3\u8fdb\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u5b83\u6307\u51fa\uff1a&ldquo;\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8fd8\u9020\u6210\u6d77\u6d0b\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u52a9\u957f\u6d77\u5cb8\u98ce\u66b4\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u66f4\u9ebb\u70e6\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u4f1a\u542b\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u6c34\u6c7d\uff0c\u800c\u98ce\u66b4\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6c34\u6c7d\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u964d\u96e8\u589e\u52a0\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u8a00\u6b63\u5728\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u8d8a\u5357\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u98ce\u66b4\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u66b4\u96e8\u5f15\u53d1\u5c71\u6d2a\u548c\u6ed1\u5761\uff0c\u9020\u621024\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u672c\u5468\u70ed\u5e26\u98ce\u66b4&ldquo;\u5c71\u795e&rdquo;\u767b\u9646\uff0c\u53c8\u670927\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u4eca\u590f\u5370\u5ea6\u670912\u4e2a\u90a6\u906d\u53d7\u6d2a\u707e\uff0c\u6570\u5343\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u30015.5\u4e07\u5ea7\u623f\u5c4b\u88ab\u6bc1\uff0c8.1\u4e07\u516c\u9877\u519c\u7530\u88ab\u6df9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5357\u90e8\u5730\u533a\u7684\u66b4\u96e8\u4e5f\u5f15\u53d1\u4e25\u91cd\u6d2a\u6c34\uff0c\u957f\u6c5f\u53ca\u5176\u652f\u6d41\u56e0\u6b64\u6cdb\u6ee5\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u6570\u5341\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/av\/world-asia-china-40503769\/china-floods-dozens-killed-more-than-a-million-evacuated\">\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4eba<\/a>\u758f\u6563\u3002 &nbsp;<br \/>\n<strong>\u200b<br 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